Global Ag News Headlines
TODAY—WEEKLY EXPORT SALES
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 5 cents, HRW down 4; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans down 2, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil down 5 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 19 yuan in soybeans, up 6 in Corn, down 27 in Soymeal, down 66 in Soyoil, and down 26 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 14 ringgit at 2,731 (basis October) at midsession on bargain-buying and ideas of a drop in July stocks and output.
U.S. Weather Forecast:
Conditions are still expected to be mostly good for summer crops in the next two weeks; though, there will also still be areas of net drying. Concern remains of dryness in Iowa; the western part of Iowa will likely continue to be driest. Dryness has also been growing and expanding in the western half of the Northern Plains; areas of dryness in the Hard Red Winter Wheat Region will grow and worsen more in the second week of the outlook. Temps are seen running below average for the rest of week then warming to average to a bit above for the weekend and the first half of next week.
Last evening’s GFS model run showed a stronger, larger ridge of high pressure across the central and eastern U.S. Aug. 15 – 19 compared to the midday GFS model; and centered farther to the west. This would lead to greater rainfall in the Corn Belt for this timeframe however, net drying will still be possible in many areas of the region.
The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest has the European showing a bit below average rainfall and above normal temps; the GFS has ridging meaning below average rainfall and above average temps
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 7,000 Corn; sold 3,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 1,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 176,000 Corn; net long 55,000 Soybeans; net short 24,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 54,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 75 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,800; Corn up 2,700; Soybeans down 6,300 contracts; Soymeal up 5,200 lots, and; Soyoil up 6,200.
Deliveries were 259 Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil, and ZERO Soybeans
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 2,719 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 11; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
Tender Activity—Egypt bought 410,000t of Russian, Ukraine wheat—Pakistan bought 60,000t optional-origin wheat—S. Korea bought 57,400t U.S. wheat—Japan bought 130,295t U.S./Canadian/Australian wheat—S. Korea feed group bought 63,000t optional-origin corn, another group passed on 60,000t—Thailand passed on 192,600t optional-origin feed wheat—
U.S. ethanol production for the week ended July 31st averaged 931,000 barrels per day (down 2.8% versus a week ago, down 10.5% versus a year ago); stocks totaled 20.346 mil barrels (up 0.37% versus a week ago, down 11.99% versus last year); corn use for the week was 93.3 mil bu (96.1 mil last week) and versus the 91.3 mil bu needed to meet USDA projections.
Demand for biofuel has collapsed in tandem with the virus-related slump in transport activity weighing on agricultural commodities, Capital Economics says; this was particularly true in the U.S. where around one-third of U.S. corn is used to make ethanol; CE adds that demand for other commodities used to make biofuel, such as palm oil and sugarcane, and those used in transport–including natural rubber (used to make tires)–have also been hit by the collapse in auto activity; CE says biofuel and automobile demand is unlikely to return to pre-virus levels any time soon.
USDA said U.S. exports of ethanol totaled 78.5 million gallons in June, up from 67.5 million gallons in May, but down 36% from a year ago; for the first half of 2020, U.S. ethanol exports were down 4% from the previous year.
U.S. exports of biodiesel totaled 69,667 metric tons (mt) in June, down slightly from 69,973 metric tons (mt) in May, but up 65% from a year ago; in the first six months of 2020, biodiesel exports were up 22% from a year ago.
U.S. exports of distillers grains totaled 883,193 mt in June, down from 601,029 mt in May and down 8% from a year ago; for the first six months of 2020, U.S. exports of distillers grains were down 7% from a year ago.
Barchart, a leading provider of data and technology services to the financial, media, and commodity industries, announces their August cmdty Yield Forecast for end of season yield at 174.8 bu/ac for corn and 49.2 bu/ac for soybeans in the U.S.
This represents an increase in forecasted yield relative to the July 7th report, which forecasted end of season yield for corn 173.8 bu/ac and end of season yield for soybeans 48.8 bu/ac.
Farmer returns are expected to stay negative this year, even with the addition of aid payments from the US government, according to the University of Illinois’ Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics; in the projected balance sheet for farmers in northern and central Illinois, farmer returns for corn are expected to be minus $30 an acre, growing to minus $75 in 2021; this is with an average price of $3.25 a bushel in 2020, and $3.40 in 2021.
Meanwhile, soybeans are projected to give these farmers a profit of $19 an acre in 2020, falling to a loss of $50 in 2021.
World food prices rose in July, led by vegetable oil and dairy products, to extend a rebound from the previous month following sharp falls triggered by the pandemic, the United Nations food agency said; the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) food price index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar, averaged 94.2 points in July versus 93.1 points in June; the June figure was revised from an initial estimate of 93.2.
CANADA DURUM YIELD FOR 2020-21 SEEN 45.3 BU/ACRE, OUTPUT 7 MLN TONNES -FARMLINK CROP TOUR
CANADA WHEAT (EXCLUDING DURUM) YIELD FOR 2020-21 SEEN 60.5 BU/ACRE, OUTPUT 31.9 MLN
CANADA OAT YIELD FOR 2020-21 SEEN 107 BU/ACRE, OUTPUT 5.6 MLN TONNES
CANADA CANOLA YIELD FOR 2020-21 SEEN 42.9 BU/ACRE, OUTPUT 20.2 MLN TONNES
Canadian farmers are on track to harvest a record-large all-wheat crop, and more canola than last year, due mainly to favorable crop conditions, farmer advisory service FarmLink Marketing Solutions estimated.
The wheat harvest including durum looks to reach nearly 39 million tons, surpassing the current record of 37.6 million, set in 2013.
FarmLink estimated canola production at 20.2 million tons, up from 18.6 million last year.
Canadian Pacific Railway says it transported a record amount of grain and grain products during the 2019-20 crop year, exceeding the previous high set last year by about 10%; in total, the Calgary, Alberta-based railroad hauled 29.52 million tons in 2019-20
Private exporters sold 192,000 tons of U.S. soybeans to China, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday, the first confirmed sales of U.S. oilseeds to the world’s top soy consumer since July 27; the sales come amid rising political tensions between Washington and Beijing; Senior U.S. and Chinese officials will review the implementation of their Phase 1 trade deal and likely air mutual grievances in an increasingly tense relationship during an Aug. 15 video conference.
Ukraine’s grain exports stand at 2.96 million tons in the 2020/21 July-June season, down from 3.96 million tons at the same date in 2019/20, due to lower corn shipments, the economy ministry said; the exports have included 1.46 million tons of wheat, 490,000 tons of corn and 1.0 million tons of barley as of Aug. 5; Ukraine had exported around 1.5 million tons of corn at the same date last season.
A lack of rain in Ukraine’s central and southern regions has created unfavorable conditions for winter crop sowing, analyst APK-Inform said citing weather forecasters; Ukraine, a traditional grower of winter crops of wheat, barley and rapeseed, usually starts sowing in the second half of August with winter rapeseed.
Ukrainian rapeseed export prices have risen $2-$4 per ton so far this week supported by an increase in palm oil and soy bean oil, analyst APK-Inform said; the consultancy said rapeseed asking prices were at $426-430 per ton CPT Black Sea as of Aug. 5.
European wheat edged down on Wednesday to a new one-month low as traders assessed mixed indications for harvests and demand; front-month September milling wheat unofficially closed down 0.75 euro, or 0.4%, at 179.00 euros ($212.67) a ton, its lowest since June 30.
Japan’s food self-sufficiency ratio inched higher to nearly 38% in the year ended March from a record low of 37% a year earlier, helped by higher wheat output, but it remains below the nation’s 2030 target of 45%, the agriculture ministry said.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July rose 10.7 percent to 1,671,656 tons from 1,510,023 tons shipped during June, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said.
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