Written Commentary
TODAY—-EXPORT INSPECS—MONTHLY OILSEED/GRAIN CRUSHINGS—CROP PROGRESS
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 7 cents, HRW down 6; HRS Wheat down 5, Corn is unchanged; Soybeans up 4, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil up 40 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 7 cents; HRW down 7; HRS down 1; Corn was down 8 cents; Soybeans down 7; Soymeal down $1.00, and; Soyoil up 40 points. Crushing margins were up 8 at 99 cents; Oil share up 1% at 34%.
For the month, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 39 cents; HRW up 1; HRS down 6; Corn was down 23 cents; Soybeans up 10; Soymeal up $2.00, and; Soyoil up 195 points. Crushing margins were up 14 cents at 99, Oil share up 2 at 34%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 2 yuan in soybeans, down 17 in Corn, up 13 in Soymeal, up 136 in Soyoil, and up 156 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were higher at 2,736 (basis October) at midsession in conjunction with rival oils and higher July exports.
U.S. Weather Forecast
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest has light to moderate rainfall for most of the region by both the GFS and European models with mostly good coverage; temps are below average this week warming up to a bit above average by the end of this week and the first half of next week.
The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest leans towards average to a bit below average rainfall and temps average to below.
The U.S. Southern Plains has mixed ideas about the models; the GFS sees moderate rainfall with good coverage, the European dry.
The U.S. Delta is seen having limited rainfall.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 1,000 Corn; bought 7,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 lots of soymeal, and; bought 6,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 156,000 Corn; net long 67,000 Soybeans; net short 18,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 49,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 9,700 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,600; Corn up 1,100; Soybeans down 2,000 contracts; Soymeal down 400 lots, and; Soyoil up 3,000.
Deliveries were 24 Soymeal; 210 Soyoil, and ZERO Soybeans
There were changes in registrations (Soyoil down 17)—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 2,700 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 174; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
Speculators continue to weigh increasingly favorable weather for U.S. corn and soybeans against record July export sales for both crops, and it seems that the latter won out again last week, at least in the case of corn; Chicago-traded corn futures fell nearly 7% during July, but hedge fund managers have not materially changed their views toward the yellow grain since the first week of the month.
The U.S. soybean crush is expected to have dropped for a third straight month in June, sinking to 5.333 million short tons, or 177.8 million bushels; estimates ranged from 171.7 million bushels to 186.0 million bushels
The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Monday.
If realized, it would be the biggest June crush on record, eclipsing the previous record of 169.5 million bushels set in June 2018. But it would be down from a May crush of 179.5 million bushels and the smallest monthly crush since February.
U.S. soyoil stocks at the end of June were projected to slip to 2.336 billion lbs from 2.447 billion lbs at the end of May; soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 2.297 billion to 2.351 billion lbs
EU soybean imports and crushings are rising to records in 2019/20; soybean exports to the EU up 1.7 Mn T in Apr/June, mainly from Brazil.
Ukrainian rapeseed crop seen reaching only 2.8 MnT, reducing exports by 0.5-0.6 Mn T in July/June 2020/21
Chinese fish meal imports plunge by one third in April/June owing to shortage in Peru
Alberta crop report – Reuters News
Crop Conditions as of July 28, 2020; Alberta’s weather has been trending warmer the past two weeks, with normal to moderately warm temperatures recorded; rains are still fairly persistent across Central, North West, North East and the southern portion of Peace regions, with widespread thunderstorm activity generating localized moisture and hail activity; provincial forage crop growth ratings remain high with tame pasture at 89 per cent good or excellent and hay reported as 90 per cent good or excellent.
The Brazilian wheat crop has the potential to surpass 7 million tons this year and reach a record, provided the weather remains favorable throughout the cycle that has just begun, according to analysts interviewed; an expected rise in investment from Brazilian farmers who had a profitable soybean season in the summer and can divert funds into wheat, driving yields higher, will also boost production
Argentine President Alberto Fernandez pulled the plug on a planned government takeover of cash-strapped soymeal giant Vicentin, according to a tweet sent by the Peronist leader on Friday, after a local judge partially blocked the move; in early June Fernandez said his government would “rescue” Vicentin, once Argentina’s top soymeal exporter, after the family-owned company went broke last year; the move was criticized by farmers and industry leaders who characterized it as meddling in the private sector.
Russia’s July exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are estimated at 3.8 million tons, up from 550,000 tons estimated in June, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said.
Ukrainian milling wheat export prices remained unchanged over the past week, while feed wheat added around $3 per tons thanks to a delay in the harvest and a lack of offers from growers, analyst APK-inform said; feed wheat cost $200-$203 per tons FOB Black Sea as of the end of last week; milling wheat with 12.5% protein was traded at between $209 and $212 per ton FOB Black Sea.
Ukraine’s grain exports fell by a third to 2.33 million tons in July, the first month of the 2020/21 marketing season, the economy ministry said; the exports included 1.19 million tons of wheat, 424,000 tons of corn and 714,000 tons of barley as of July 31.
The share of milling wheat in Ukraine’s overall wheat harvest may drop to around 40%, analyst APK-Inform said; the consultancy gave no comparison to the 2019 crop, while analysts and traders last year said the share of milling wheat was likely to rise to as much as 70% in 2019 from around 55% in 2018 due to hot and dry weather; Ukraine may harvest 24.5 million tons of wheat this year compared with 28.3 million tons in 2019
Ukrainian sunflower oil export prices were flat over the past week at between $790 and $805 per tonnes FOB Black Sea with delivery in September, analyst APK-Inform said; the consultancy said a lack of offers, typical for the end of the season, had caused a slow pace of trade; APK-Inform said in a report sunoil bid export prices from the new 2010/21 season harvest were at $755-$765 per tonne FOB Black Sea with October delivery, while asking prices rose by around $25 per tonne over the past week to $790-$800.
Belarus has harvested 3.4 million tons of grain from 40.2% of the sown area as of Aug. 3, the agriculture ministry said; the yield averaged 3.84 tons per hectare, 6% higher than a year earlier; Belarus has said it is likely to increase its grain harvest to no less than 8.2 million tons this year from 7.33 million tons in 2019 thanks to better weather conditions.
Consultancy Strategie Grains has increased its forecast for this year’s rapeseed harvest in the European Union plus Britain to 16.79 million tons from 16.54 million; the upward revision, which ended a run of six consecutive downgrades to its monthly forecast, was mainly due to favorable conditions in Poland and Lithuania; the expected harvest would still be below last year’s poor crop, which Strategie Grains estimates at 17.12 million tons
European wheat ended the month nearly flat, with a lack of fresh news to justify a clear move in any direction, traders said; benchmark December milling wheat closed 0.25 euro lower at 182.50 euros a ton, nearly unchanged from the 182.75 euros recorded at the end of June.
A rapid progress of the monsoon helped Indian farmers plant nearly 14% more land than last year with rice, corn, cane, cotton and soybean crops, according to the farm ministry; farmers planted more acreage of every single summer-sown crops between June 1 and July 31 than last year, brightening the prospects for a bumper output in the world’s leading producer of farm commodities
MALAYSIA’S JULY PALM OIL EXPORTS SEEN AT 1,739,667 TONNES VERSUS JUNE AT 1,629,086 TONNES – AMSPEC MALAYSIA
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