Global Ag News for Sept 9.24

TOP HEADLINES

China begins anti-dumping investigation into Canadian rapeseed

China announced on Monday the start of a one-year anti-dumping investigation into imports of rapeseed from Canada, a move widely seen as retaliation against Ottawa’s tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles and other products.

The investigation will examine imports from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31, 2023, the commerce ministry said in a statement, adding that preliminary evidence and information show dumping had taken place.

There is causal relationship between the dumping of Canadian imports and actual damage to domestic industry following significant rises in the imports and falling prices, the ministry said.

The world’s biggest oilseed importer purchased 5.5 million metric tons of canola in 2023, valued at $3.72 billion. Imports from Canada accounted for 94% of the total.

The investigation is “fundamentally different” from the discriminatory measures taken by Canada in violation of WTO rules, a spokesperson from the commerce ministry said in a Q&A session on Monday.

Canada, following the lead of the United States and European Union, is planning a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminium from China.

The announcement of Beijing’s plan on an anti-dumping probe last week sent prices of domestic rapeseed oil futures to a one-month peak.

The investigation will start effectively immediately, and should usually be completed before Sept. 9, 2025, although it may be extended for another six months under special circumstances, the ministry said.

The probe will also examine the industrial damage from these Canadian imports covering the period from Jan. 1, 2021 to Dec. 31, 2023, it said.

More than half of rapeseed, also known as canola, exported by Canada makes its way to China.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/4 in SRW, up 3/4 in HRW, down 3 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans up 6 1/4; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil up 0.61.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 14 1/4 in SRW, up 13 in HRW, up 10 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/4; Soybeans up 11 1/4; Soymeal up $11.50; Soyoil down 1.77.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 14 1/4 in SRW, up 13 in HRW, up 10 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/4; Soybeans up 11 1/4; Soymeal up $11.50; Soyoil down 1.77.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 11.9% in SRW, down 11.3% in HRW, down 19.1% in HRS; Corn is down 18.6%; Soybeans down 23.5%; Soymeal down 17.5%; Soyoil down 13.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans down 36 yuan; Soymeal up 1; Soyoil down 58; Palm oil down 92; Corn down 40 — Malaysian Palm is down 3.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 3 ringgit (-0.08%) at 3895.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 235 Corn; 230 Soybeans; 453 Soyoil; 100 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 6 were: SRW Wheat down 1,145 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,329, Corn up 4,101, Soybeans up 4,569, Soymeal up 2,924, Soyoil up 3,423.

 

Northern Plains: Heat in the west spread east over the weekend and temperature will be well above normal this week. A system will try to move into the region by Thursday, but most of the precipitation is forecast to occur either in western Montana or north into Canada. Another burst could come through in the same areas early-mid next week. Winds could be strong in some areas with these systems moving through, not favorable for harvest, and will generally dry out soils. The lack of precipitation could be disappointing for corn and soybeans that are behind developmentally.

 

Central/Southern Plains: It was cool and largely dry over the weekend, allowing crops to dry down with little stress. Some drier areas in the region could use some rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. But even with a system moving into the Northern Plains later this week, rainfall is forecast to be limited and rather spotty going through the weekend. Most areas will stay dry. Temperatures will be rising this week as well, being above normal through next week. For those with fieldwork to do, it should be rather good conditions, but not for the remaining filling corn and soybean crops.

 

Midwest: A burst of cool weather moved through the region over the weekend, bringing some chilly morning temperatures below 40 degrees in many areas from Minnesota to Indiana. Some frost may have been possible in Wisconsin and Michigan, but was not widespread enough to cause any damage. Temperatures will be rising this week, becoming very warm and inducing stress in dry areas for immature corn and soybeans. A tropical storm will move into the Mississippi Valley later this week and could move into southern portions of the region by the end of the week. If it does, it would help to bring needed moisture in for winter wheat planting later this fall, and could improve water levels on the Mississippi River. Northern areas will likely stay drier, not necessarily good for immature corn and soybeans that could use some additional rain.

 

Delta: Some isolated showers went through over the weekend, but most areas were dry again, not good for soil moisture in the region. A tropical storm or hurricane is expected to form in the Gulf of Mexico over the next day or two, and then move up through the region later this week, bringing heavy rain through. That could cause damage but increase water levels on the Mississippi River, which have fallen very low again.

 

Southeast:  Showers went through over the weekend, mostly near the coasts. A tropical storm or hurricane is forecast to develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the next day or two and move north through the Mississippi Valley, but then stalling in the Tennessee Valley later this week and weekend. Though it would no longer be tropical or even strong, scattered showers could continue throughout the region into next week and could improve soil moisture, but also ruin some open-boll cotton and mature corn and soybeans awaiting harvest.

 

Canadian Prairies: Heat expanded through the region over the weekend and will continue to be in the region for most of the next two weeks. A system will develop in the Northern Plains by Thursday and will spread rain into the region later this week and weekend. Another could do so early-mid next week. The rainfall would not be favorable for the continued harvest, but would help to reduce drought and build soil moisture for next season.

 

Brazil: It was largely dry over the weekend with a few showers in the extreme southern section of Rio Grande do Sul in the south. That continues Monday. Another front will move north into the country with scattered showers on Thursday, lingering around the southern states into the weekend. That will help states like Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, improving soil moisture for any immature wheat or corn and soybean planting. Heat north of this front continues to bake soils ahead of first-crop soybean planting and soil moisture through most of central Brazil is way too low to begin planting. Wet season rains typically do not start for another couple of weeks and may be late, which would push back planting by a couple of weeks, putting the safrinha season in jeopardy as well.

 

Argentina: It was dry in Argentina over the weekend. A front will move through Tuesday and Wednesday and bring showers, but very few areas are forecast to see meaningful rainfall. Most of the country continues to be dry, impacting developing winter wheat and delaying corn planting. Temperatures generally above normal are also unfavorable, evaporating more moisture out of soils.

 

Europe: A system in the west brought widespread moderate to heavy rainfall over the weekend. That may have been favorable for immature corn, but Pakistan, North India and Bangladesh Highlights: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal. Forecast… Days 1-3: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal. Days 4-6: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal. Gujarat Region, West Madhya Pradesh India, north and east Maharashtra Cotton, Groundnut and Soybean areas Highlights: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal. Forecast… Days 1-3: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal. Days 4-6: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

 

The player sheet for Sept. 6 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 10,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 5,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased between 66,000 to 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the U.S. in a private deal.
• RICE PURCHASE: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog bought an additional 26,000 metric tons of rice believed to be sourced from Vietnam in an international tender for up to 350,000 tons of rice.

 

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil
• VEGETABLE OILS TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said it was seeking 30,000 metric tons of imported soybean oil and 10,000 tons of imported sunflower oil in an international purchasing tender for arrival Nov. 20-Dec. 5 and/or Dec. 10-25. The deadline for offers is Sept. 10.
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Dec. 31 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 27 via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction to be held on Sept. 11.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following table shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Aug. 29, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 901k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 853k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Leeward with 59k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following table shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Aug. 29, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 10k tons of the 20.8k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

Brazil 2024/25 Corn Crop Seen At 133.57 Million Tons Versus 125.56 Million Tons In The Previous Cycle, Says Consultancy Firm Safras

• BRAZIL 2024/25 CORN CROP SEEN AT 133.57 MILLION TONS VERSUS 125.56 MILLION TONS IN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, SAYS CONSULTANCY FIRM SAFRAS
• BRAZIL 2024/25 CORN CROP TOTAL PLANTED AREA SEEN AT 20.87 MILLION HECTARES VERSUS 20.99 MILLION HECTARES IN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, SAYS CONSULTANCY FIRM SAFRAS
• BRAZIL’S 2023/24 SOYBEAN SALES REACH 82.2% OF EXPECTED OUTPUT VERSUS 79.8% A YEAR BEFORE – SAFRAS & MERCADO

 

StoneX lowers forecast for Brazil’s wheat crop but sees higher exports

Brazil’s 2024/25 wheat crop is expected to reach 8.09 million metric tons, consultancy firm StoneX said on Friday, down 4% from its previous forecast.

At the same time, StoneX raised its projection for the country’s wheat exports this season to 2.15 million tons, up from 1.76 million tons it had forecast in August.

 

Indonesia Plans to Start B40 Biodiesel Mandate on Jan. 1, 2025

Indonesia plans to increase palm-based biodiesel mandate to 40% starting early January next year, an energy ministry official says.

• Biodiesel producers are preparing for the B40 mandate, Eniya Listiani Dewi, director general for new and renewable energy, says in Monday briefing
• Indonesia needs to raise investment in hydro-treated vegetable oils and biodiesel plants, boost palm oil production and add incentives for biodiesel to increase the mix to B50 and B60
• Govt est. additional budget of 10.5t and 20.5t rupiah for B50 and B60
• Indonesia’s biodiesel consumption at 8.21m kiloliters as of Aug.

 

FAS Sees China Soy Imports at 103M Tons, Trailing USDA Outlook

China’s soy imports in the 2024-25 season that begins in October are estimated at 103m tons, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service said in a report.

• That trails the official USDA forecast for 109m tons
• Forecasting soybean imports is increasingly difficult due to the expanding discrepancies between China’s released soybean arrivals and the combined departures of exporting countries, the agricultural service said in the report
• Soybean meal consumption is expected to increase modestly due to lower prices, aiding crushing demand

 

Egypt’s Plans to Import 3.8M Tons of Wheat Still Valid: Minister

Egypt’s plans to import 3.8m tons of wheat in a tender is still valid, supply minister says.

• Egypt bought 0.3m tons and is still seeking about 3.5m tons: supply minister
• Egypt is prepared to cooperate with all suppliers and government agencies in wheat import

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Scarcity of rainfall concerns players; sellers limit supply

The lack of rainfall in major producing areas in Brazil and forecasts of predominant dry weather in the next 15 days have been concerning soybean producers, since this scenario may delay 2024/25 planting activities. As a result, sellers have restricted the volume offered in the spot market in Brazil, while both domestic and international consumers are competing for new batches.

As the demand has been surpassing the supply, both export premiums and domestic prices increased.

From August 29 to September 5, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) rose 4.2%, closing at BRL 140.66 per 60-kg bag on Sept. 5. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) moved up 4.3% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 137.00 per 60-kg bag yesterday.

On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) upped 3.1% from August 29 to Sept. 5. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations increased 2.8%.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that the international demand is higher in this early September; however, shipments dropped between July and August. Secex data indicate that 8.04 million tons of soybean were shipped in August, 28.5% less than in July/24, moving down 4% compared to the volume observed in August/23 and the lowest monthly volume since February this year. However, in the partial of 2024 (from January to August), soybean exports totaled 83.44 million tons, upping 3.21% in relation to the same period of 2023 and a record.

SOYBEAN MEAL – The firm demand (especially from abroad) has boosted quotations this week. On the average of regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean meal prices rose 3.1% between Aug. 29 and Sept. 5.

From July to August, soybean meal exports increased 6.43%, totaling 2.09 million tons, the biggest amount since May this year. On the other hand, compared with the same month in 2023, shipments dropped 11.7%.

SOYBEAN OIL – Liquidity has been low this week because of the weak demand from the biodiesel industry. Still, soy oil quotations rose 0.9% between Aug. 29 and Sept. 5, at BRL 6,416.86 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on Sept. 5.

Soy oil exports reduced 43.58% from July to August and 42.29% in relation to August/23, totaling 105.74 thousand tons, the lowest volume since February this year.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Unfavorable weather and firm demand keep prices high

Sellers are focused on recent corn valuations in both the domestic and international markets and are concerned with weather conditions in areas that produce the summer crop in Brazil. Therefore, they have been limiting the volume of corn offered in the market.

Summer crop planting activities have already started in Southern Brazil, the biggest producing region in this period. However, high temperatures over the last days and the lack of rains this year may affect activities. It is worth noting that the areas of the summer season in 2024/25 in Paraná and in Rio Grande do Sul may be 10% and 7.5%, respectively, smaller than in 2023/24, according to Seab/Deral and Emater/RS.

The international demand for the Brazilian product has been increasing, sustained by the higher export parity. Domestic purchasers have also boosted the pace of trades to replenish stocks and/or fear price rises in the coming days – however, they end up facing higher values from sellers.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) rose 2.7% between August 29 and September 5, closing at BRL 61.89 per 60-kilo bag on Sept. 5. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values increased 0.6% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 2% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) in the same period.

EXPORTS – Corn shipments totaled 6.06 million tons in August, more than the 3.55 million tons exported in July, but still 35% smaller than in August/23, according to data from Secex. From February to August, Brazil shipped 13.63 million tons, lower than the volume estimated by Conab for the 2023/24 season (from Feb/24 to Jan/25), of 36 million tons.

Corn prices moved up at ports this week, influenced by firm international demand and increases in the international market. In Paranaguá (PR) and Santos (SP), quotations upped 1.5% and 4.2% from Aug. 29 to Sept. 5, respectively. The US dollar rose 0.7% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 5.57 yesterday.

CROPS – According to Conab, the 2023/24 second crop harvesting in Brazil reached 99.1% of the area until Sept. 2, moving up 9.9 percentage points compared to one year ago.

As for the summer crop, despite concerns with the weather, 18% of the area had been planted up to Sept. 2 in Paraná, an advance of 17 percentage points in one week, but lower than the 26% observed in 2023 – data from Seab/Deral.

 

China begins anti-dumping investigation into Canadian rapeseed

China announced on Monday the start of a one-year anti-dumping investigation into imports of rapeseed from Canada, a move widely seen as retaliation against Ottawa’s tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles and other products.

The investigation will examine imports from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31, 2023, the commerce ministry said in a statement, adding that preliminary evidence and information show dumping had taken place.

There is causal relationship between the dumping of Canadian imports and actual damage to domestic industry following significant rises in the imports and falling prices, the ministry said.

The world’s biggest oilseed importer purchased 5.5 million metric tons of canola in 2023, valued at $3.72 billion. Imports from Canada accounted for 94% of the total.

The investigation is “fundamentally different” from the discriminatory measures taken by Canada in violation of WTO rules, a spokesperson from the commerce ministry said in a Q&A session on Monday.

Canada, following the lead of the United States and European Union, is planning a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminium from China.

The announcement of Beijing’s plan on an anti-dumping probe last week sent prices of domestic rapeseed oil futures to a one-month peak.

The investigation will start effectively immediately, and should usually be completed before Sept. 9, 2025, although it may be extended for another six months under special circumstances, the ministry said.

The probe will also examine the industrial damage from these Canadian imports covering the period from Jan. 1, 2021 to Dec. 31, 2023, it said.

More than half of rapeseed, also known as canola, exported by Canada makes its way to China.

 

Lawmakers want US to address risks posed by Chinese agriculture drones

A dozen Republican U.S. lawmakers urged the Biden administration on Friday to address the use of Chinese-manufactured agriculture drones, saying their use on American farms poses national security risks.

The House members, including Representatives Elise Stefanik, Ashley Hinson and John Moolenaar, who chairs a select committee on China, asked the Agriculture Department and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, in letters seen by Reuters, to detail the administration’s efforts to address risks posed by aerosol-dispensing drones.

The lawmakers asked for a briefing by Sept. 30, citing the large number of drones produced by Chinese drone manufacturer DJI as a security concern.

DJI responded that it has no ties to the Chinese military, saying in an emailed statement “the unfounded accusations against our agricultural drone technology are putting U.S. farmers at risk by potentially depriving them of the tremendous benefits that DJI spray drones offer.”

The company said its agricultural drone technology “supports sustainable agriculture, allowing American farmers and business owners to integrate additional precision farming practices into their operations.”

The Chinese Embassy in Washington said China “firmly supports Chinese companies in carrying out international trade and cooperation in drones for civilian use, and opposes certain countries’ frequent illegal sanctions on Chinese companies and individuals on the grounds of so-called national security.”

The U.S. agencies declined to comment.

The congressional letter noted that the Commerce Department has imposed export restrictions on aerosol dispensing drones that have potential to be used as weapons delivery platforms.

“The risk of these DJI agricultural spray drones being manipulated to carry out an attack in the United States cannot be ignored,” the letter said. “Relying on our greatest strategic adversary for technology critical to the success of our agricultural production endangers the resiliency of our food supply.”

Stefanik called on the Agriculture Department and the cybersecurity agency to “take immediate action to mitigate the risks of Chinese-manufactured drones to our agriculture industry.” She has proposed legislation seeking to bar new DJI drones from operating in the United States.

DJI agriculture drones use advanced sensors that can collect and interpret crop data that is “impossible for the human eye to see”, the lawmakers wrote, arguing that China could use the sensors “to gain access into granular level detail on the stability and condition of the U.S. agriculture sector.”

In 2020, the U.S imposed export restrictions on DJI. Lawmakers have said DJI accounts for more than 50% of all U.S. drone purchases.

 

US Beef Production Falls 11% This Week, Pork Down: USDA

US federally inspected beef production falls to 461m pounds for the week ending Sept. 7 from 518m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter down 11.3% from a week ago to 542m head
• Pork production down 4.1% from a week ago, hog slaughter falls 4.2%
• For the year, beef production is 1.2% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 1.7% above

 

 

 

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