Global Ag News for Sept 30.24

TOP HEADLINES

Vancouver Port Grain Workers Reach Tentative Deal to End Strike

Vancouver grain terminal workers will return to work as soon as Saturday morning, ending a walkout at Canada’s busiest port at the height of harvest season.

Canada’s Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service oversaw negotiations between the Vancouver Terminal Elevator Association and Grain Workers Union Local 333 after about 600 unionized employees walked off their jobs Tuesday morning.

Terminals will reopen as early as 7 a.m. Pacific time Saturday, and a ratification vote will take place by Oct. 4, said Wade Sobkowich, executive director of the Western Grain Elevator Association, who was commenting on behalf of the Vancouver operator group. Douglas Lea-Smith, president of GWU Local 333, confirmed the memorandum of settlement in a separate message.

Canada’s Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon said in a post on X the two sides had reached a “tentative agreement to get Canada’s harvest to market” and thanked them and federal mediators for their support.

Vancouver handled about half the grain produced in Canada last year, according to the Grain Growers of Canada trade group. It said a stoppage could prevent about 100,000 metric tons from arriving at the port’s terminals each day, meaning a daily potential loss of C$35 million ($26 million), according to industry estimates.

The port’s managers and non-striking longshoremen have been moving a significantly reduced amount of grain through the port since the disruption began.  It’s one of a series of labor disruptions and threats that have affected supply chains through Canada in recent months. Next week two major terminals at Montreal Port will close as unionized dockworkers prepare for a three-day strike starting Monday.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/2 in SRW, up 2 in HRW, up 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans down 10 1/2; Soymeal down $1.90; Soyoil down 0.35.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices unchanged in SRW, up 1 1/2 in HRW, down 10 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/2; Soybeans up 16; Soymeal up $13.50; Soyoil up 0.17.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 31 in SRW, up 13 1/2 in HRW, up 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 16; Soybeans up 55 1/4; Soymeal up $29.20; Soyoil unchanged.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.2% in SRW, down 9.9% in HRW, down 15.8% in HRS; Corn is down 11.5%; Soybeans down 18.4%; Soymeal down 12.2%; Soyoil down 11.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans down 8 yuan; Soymeal up 38; Soyoil down 36; Palm oil down 62; Corn up 34 — Malaysian Palm is down 53.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 53 ringgit (-1.31%) at 3998.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 232 Soybeans; 352 Soyoil; 126 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 27 were: SRW Wheat up 852 contracts, HRW Wheat down 109, Corn down 3,279, Soybeans up 9,337, Soymeal up 11,254, Soyoil down 1,534.

 

Northern Plains: It was dry and very warm this weekend. But a front moving through Sunday night into early Monday is bringing temperatures briefly back to normal. Another front should go through this coming weekend. The fronts are not likely to have much precipitation with them, but they will bring breezy winds, which will dry out the corn and soybean crops, and hustle them toward maturity.

Central/Southern Plains: It was very warm and dry this weekend, drying out topsoils after last week’s good rainfall that was helpful for recently planted wheat. Dry conditions are in the forecast for the next couple of weeks with no real chances for meaningful rain while temperatures remain very warm to hot. That is not a good combination for wheat, but it is for harvesting corn and soybeans. 

Midwest: The remnants to Hurricane Helene brought strong winds and areas of heavy rain to areas surrounding the Ohio River. That has helped to ease the drought situation for getting water into the Mississippi River system and moistened soils for winter wheat planting, but may have caused damage due to flooding and winds. Wet soils are putting the brakes on harvest for a bit as well. The remnants will get pushed eastward by a front on Tuesday that will not produce much precipitation. Limited showers may come through Thursday and Friday with another front and a third will go through this weekend. That one has the best chances to produce rainfall, but not guaranteed to do so. Though fronts are moving through, they do not have access to much cool air, and temperatures should remain rather warm on most days, getting pushed back toward normal after a front goes through. 

Delta: Hurricane Helene brought a ton of rain into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys, raising water levels on the Mississippi River and reducing drought for northern areas, but causing some flood concerns and potential damage. Helene’s remnants are drifting east and should not produce any more precipitation for the region. Dry conditions are forecast, though we will be watching a potential tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico later this week that could bring some impacts to the region. 

Southeast: Hurricane Helene caused horrific flooding in parts of the region late last week, causing some damage to cotton in Georgia and some corn and soybean acres in the Carolinas, though the worst of it occurred in the southern Appalachians where whole towns were washed away. Helene’s remnants will finally get pushed eastward on Tuesday and the region will be much drier for the rest of the week. We will be watching a potential tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico later this week that could bring some impacts to the region, though. 

Brazil: Wet season showers started in central Brazil over the weekend, but have been very spotty. That is expected to continue for the next week. The late start to significant rain is causing a slow start to soybean planting, which will have a more significant impact for the coming safrinha corn and cotton crops for early 2025. Southern Brazil has had more opportunities to pick up good rainfall over recent weeks, which continues this week with another front moving through with good rainfall that dies out as it gets into central Brazil. Another of these fronts is forecast for early next week which may be more promising for rainfall in central Brazil later next week. 

Argentina: It was dry yet again over the weekend, continuing the trend of dry conditions that has significantly delayed harvest for western areas and caused some to abandon their winter wheat due to poor conditions and limited or no rainfall. Far southern and eastern areas have fared better, but most areas are still dry. A system moves through Monday and Tuesday but with spotty showers. A more promising system may move through this coming weekend into early next week, but more rain is going to be needed soon to stave off the significant late plantings and increase soil moisture for the limited crop that has already been planted. 

Europe: A system brought widespread precipitation over eastern areas this weekend. Another system is moving through northwestern areas early this week with decent rainfall before digging down into the Mediterranean midweek with better rainfall for areas there. More systems are lining to move through the continent for next week as well. Soil moisture is much improved, though some areas have dealt with wetness and flooding that has caused issues for winter wheat planting and corn harvesting. 

Black Sea: A front moved into western areas over the weekend as a system slipped into southeastern Europe. That brought some rain but the system will move into the Black Sea, taking the showers with it. Eastern Ukraine and western Russia have been very dry for months and the systems moving through Europe are not bringing the needed rainfall to the region for winter wheat planting. Though temperatures have been and continue to be quite warm, the risk of frost will increase throughout October, giving a very limited window for getting rainfall into the region for winter wheat to grow roots before the stronger freezes move in. 

Australia: A system spread rainfall throughout much of the country’s growing regions late last week and over the weekend. The rain was much needed due to recent dryness in a lot of the country. Another system will move through this week, though showers may not be all that widespread across the east later this week.

 

The player sheet for Sept. 27 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 11,500 corn, sellers of 14,500 soybeans, buyers of 11,000 soymeal, and sellers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOY OIL SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 20,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean oil to South Korea for the 2024/25 marketing year.
• CORN SALE: Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have bought an unknown volume of animal feed corn to be sourced from Argentina or Brazil in an international tender for up to 240,000 tons which closed on Sept. 26.
• FAILED CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group(MFG) is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender to buy up to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn on Sept. 27.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley with an Oct. 2 deadline.

 

 

TODAY

 

EU 2024-25 Total Grains Production Forecast Cut to 260.9m Tons

The EU’s total grains production is seen at 260.9 million tons, down from an August estimate of 264.5 million tons, the European Commission said in a report.

• Soft-wheat harvest is seen at 114.6m tons in the 2024-25 season, cut from August’s estimate of 116.1m tons
• Durum wheat production seen up slightly at 7.2m tons
• Barley forecast was cut to 50.4m tons from 51.3m tons
• Corn was also lowered and now expected at 60.1m tons

 

Malaysia Sept. Palm Oil Exports +0.83% M/m: Intertek

Following is a summary of Malaysia’s Sept. palm oil exports according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Total exports for Sept. 2024: 1.457m tons
• Crude palm oil exports: 296,840 tons, 20.4% of total
• EU led all destinations for total exports: 374,543 tons

 

Malaysia Sept. Palm Oil Exports Rise to 1.391m Tons: AmSpec

Malaysia’s palm oil exports rose to 1.391m tons in September from 1.376m tons in August, according to AmSpec Agri. Palm oil exports rose 1.05% m/m versus -11.51% in August

 

Turkey Wheat Imports Could Drop to 5.5-6m Tons in 24-25: Ulusoy

Turkey’s total wheat imports in the 2024-25 season could drop to as low as 5.5-6m tons due to import ban, Eren Gunhan Ulusoy, board chairman at Turkish miller Ulusoy Un, said on the sidelines of the IAOM conference in Baku this week.

• Last season, Turkey was the sixth-biggest importer, with deliveries of 9.4m tons in 23-24, according to USDA data
• NOTE: import ban was initially imposed until Oct. 15: Turkey has not yet announced next steps
• Ulusoy sees a complete lifting of the ban as the least probable option because there are still stocks, he said
  • “There should be some hybrid policies that help both local local traders and local industry, so that there will be balance between the local supply and the imported supply,” he said
• “When the war started we started stocking up and we imported high volumes, and now we have started this ban to reduce the stocks.” Ulusoy said during the conference.

 

Russia 2025-26 Wheat Crop Pegged at 87m Tons: RusagroTrans

Rusagrotrans set its initial forecast for Russia’s 2025-26 wheat crop at 87m tons, head of the analytical center of railway operator Rusagrotrans Igor Pavensky said at the IAOM conference in Baku this week.

• NOTE: Russia 2024-25 crop seen at 83m tons by US Department of Agriculture
• The forecast sees potential winterkill or damage caused by freezing weather, spring wheat area and yield expected at average levels: Rusagrotrans
• Current winter wheat planting paces are below plantings in 2023 (for 2024-25 crop), when planted area reached a record high of 17.2m Ha, but ahead of 2022 (for 2023-24 crop)
• In 2024-25 season, sees Turkey buying 6m tons because of import ban, down from more than 8m last year
  • Says it’s unclear when Turkish market will reopen
• For Russian exports, it’s grain from southern regions that’s being exported at the moment, wheat from the center will come, but in lower volumes

 

Brazil 2024/25 Soy Planting 1.9% Done as of Sept. 27: Safras

Compares with 3.8% last year and a five-year average of 2.7%, according to an emailed statement from consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

• Planting is 13% complete in Parana, 1% in Mato Grosso do Sul and 0.6% in Mato Grosso
• Planting has not begun in other states

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Crushing industry boosts purchases and prices move up again

The soy crushing industry has boosted the demand, increasing quotations again in the domestic market. The upward trend was reinforced by the fact that producers are refrained from trading large amounts. They are focused on the irregular volume of rainfall in Brazil and have uncertainties about the planting of the new crop.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) moved up 3.2% from September 19-26, to close at BRL 138.81 per 60-kg bag on Sept. 26, the highest nominal value since December 22, 2023. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices increased 2% from Sept. 19-26 in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 2.4% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). The dollar rose 0.4% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.447 on Sept. 26.

Speculations about a possible port strike in the US have also led sellers in Brazil to be away from closing deals. The strike can affect shipments from the United States and redirect importers to Brazil. This scenario sustained increases of export premiums in Brazil.

BYPRODUCTS – Soy oil quotations upped 2.4% between Sept. 19 and 26, at BRL 6,466.15 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on Sept. 26. On the average of regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean meal prices rose 1.3% in the same comparison.

CROPS – The 2024/25 planting activities are moving at a slow pace, due to the scarcity of water in major soy producing regions. Conab indicates that, from the 47.4 million hectares of the area in Brazil, 0.2% had been planted up to Sept. 22, below the 1.5% verified in the same period last year.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Sellers are away from closing trades; prices increase

Corn prices are moving up again in practically all regions surveyed by Cepea, due to the fact that sellers are away from closing deals, focused on crop activities and on the warm and dry weather in some areas that produce the summer crop.

It is worth noting that many producers have already finished the 2023/24 second crop harvesting and were able to store the production. Now, they are limiting the supply in the spot market, expecting new price rises. On the other hand, the slow pace of Brazilian exports and the progress of the harvesting in the US may restrict increases.

Purchasers, in turn, have been increasing the demand, but are facing high quotations. As a result, the pace of trades is slow in the domestic market.

PRICES – The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) upped 2% between September 19 and 26, closing at BRL 63.57 per 60-kilo bag on Sept. 26.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values rose 1.7% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 1.6% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) in the same period.

CROPS – Summer crop planting activities have been progressing in major regions, favored by rains in the South. Up to September 22, the planting had reached 16.2% of the area in Brazil – data from Conab.

EXPORTS – In the first 15 producing days of September, 4.69 million tons were shipped, lower than the 8.74 million tons verified in the entire same month last year (20 working days), according to data from Secex.

 

US Pork Production Up 2.8% This Week, Beef Rises: USDA

US federally inspected pork production rises to 543m pounds for the week ending Sept. 28 from 529m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Hog slaughter up 2.5% from a week ago to 2.569m head
• Beef production up 0.7% from a week ago, cattle slaughter rises 0.3%
• For the year, beef production is 0.8% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 1.6% above

 

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.