Global Ag News for Sept 11.24

TOP HEADLINES

Canada to Consider Additional Surtaxes on China Imports

After unveiling plans to slap tariffs on China-made electric vehicles, steel and aluminum, Canada said it is mulling surtaxes on additional Chinese goods such as critical minerals, batteries and semiconductors.

Canada said Tuesday it is seeking input from households, provincial governments, unions and businesses on such additional surtaxes, with consultations ending on Oct. 10.

“These potential measures would protect Canada’s workers and investment in critical sectors from China’s unfair trade policies and practices and prevent trade diversion resulting from recent actions taken by Canadian trading partners,” Canada’s finance ministry said in documents outlining its plan

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 7 in SRW, up 7 in HRW, up 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/2; Soybeans up 5 1/2; Soymeal up $3.10; Soyoil down 0.10.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 19 1/4 in SRW, up 17 3/4 in HRW, up 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal down $1.30; Soyoil down 0.43.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 34 3/4 in SRW, up 30 in HRW, up 21 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/4; Soybeans up 6; Soymeal up $10.10; Soyoil down 2.81.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 10.2% in SRW, down 9.5% in HRW, down 18.6% in HRS; Corn is down 19.3%; Soybeans down 24.3%; Soymeal down 18.8%; Soyoil down 15.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans up 15 yuan; Soymeal up 7; Soyoil down 16; Palm oil down 4; Corn up 4 — Malaysian Palm is down 53.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 53 ringgit (-1.36%) at 3848.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 235 Corn; 230 Soybeans; 453 Soyoil; 100 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 11 were: SRW Wheat down 529 contracts, HRW Wheat up 757, Corn up 6,737, Soybeans up 2,386, Soymeal down 3,162, Soyoil up 5,108.

 

Northern Plains: Temperatures will be well above normal through the rest of this week and into much of next week. A system will try to move into the region by Thursday, but most of the precipitation is forecast to occur either in western Montana or north into Canada. Another burst could come through in the same areas early-mid next week. Winds could be strong in some areas with these systems moving through, not favorable for harvest, and will generally dry out soils. The lack of precipitation could be disappointing for corn and soybeans that are behind developmentally.

 

Central/Southern Plains: Some drier areas in the region could use some rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. But even with a system moving into the Northern Plains later this week, rainfall is forecast to be limited and rather spotty going through this weekend. A cold front could provide better chances for scattered showers by the middle of next week. Temperatures are favored to be above normal for the Central Plains but closer to normal for the Southern Plains through Thursday. By late this week and into much of next week, temperatures will climb above normal for the Southern Plains while remaining above normal for the Central Plains. For those with fieldwork to do, it should be rather good conditions, but not for the remaining filling corn and soybean crops.

 

Midwest: Temperatures will continue to rise this week, becoming very warm and inducing stress in dry areas for immature corn and soybeans. Hurricane Francine will move into the Mississippi Valley later this week and could move into southern portions of the region. If it does, it would help to bring needed moisture in for winter wheat planting later this fall, and could improve water levels on the Mississippi River, but could disrupt the early harvest. Northern areas will likely stay drier, not necessarily good for immature corn and soybeans that could use some additional rain.

 

Delta: Hurricane Francine will make landfall in southern Louisiana later Wednesday and provide heavy rainfall, gusty winds, thunderstorms, and pockets of flooding to the Southern Delta. Remnants of Francine will stall out in the Tennessee Valley later this week. That could cause damage and disrupt harvest, but increase water levels on the Mississippi River, which have fallen very low again. Scattered showers could continue across the Delta through early next week and temperatures are favored to be above normal across central areas.

 

Southeast: Hurricane Francine will make landfall in southern Louisiana later Wednesday and dissipate while working north towards the Central Mississippi Valley, but then stall out in the Tennessee Valley later this week and weekend. Though it would no longer be tropical or even strong, scattered showers could continue throughout the region into next week and could improve soil moisture, but also ruin some open-boll cotton and mature corn and soybeans awaiting harvest.

 

Canadian Prairies: Heat will continue to be in the region for most of the next two weeks, but a few systems could provide brief cool downs to southern areas at times. A system will develop in the Northern Plains by Thursday and will spread rain into the region later this week with showers becoming more spotty by the weekend. A similar system could do the same early-to-mid next week. The rainfall would not be favorable for the continued harvest, but would help to reduce drought and build soil moisture for next season.

 

Brazil: Another front will move north into the country with scattered showers on Thursday, lingering around the southern states into the weekend. That will help states like Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, improve soil moisture for any immature wheat or corn and soybean planting. Heat north of this front continues to bake soils ahead of first-crop soybean planting and soil moisture through most of central Brazil is way too low to begin planting. Wet season rains typically do not start for another couple of weeks and may be late, which would push back planting by a couple of weeks, putting the safrinha season in jeopardy as well.

 

Argentina: A front will exit to the east on Wednesday but any rainfall from the front was likely spotty. Most of the country continues to be dry, impacting developing winter wheat and delaying corn planting. There will be a brief break in the above normal temperatures from the middle to end of this week. Towards the second half of the upcoming weekend and into next week, above normal temperatures will return, which will evaporate more moisture out of soils. A stronger system providing more widespread showers may not arrive until the middle to end of next week, but there is uncertainty in the coverage of the showers this far out.

 

Europe: Scattered showers have been favorable for immature corn, but not for any intentions of winter wheat planting. A piece of a system in the west will break off in southern Europe and eventually move into the east late this week. Scattered showers could linger across eastern Europe this weekend into early next week. While rainfall will be favorable for those eastern areas, temperatures will drop significantly and higher elevation frosts and snow will be possible, a sign of the coming season of more variable conditions.

 

Black Sea: Western areas have been seeing scattered showers as systems from central Europe nudge east. Another front moving into Europe will have potential for showers in western areas later this week and weekend as well. Eastern Ukraine and western Russia, large winter wheat areas, will have very little potential for rainfall over the next couple of weeks. The window for effective winter wheat planting will be awfully short this year as frosts and freezes typically start to show up in about three or four weeks.

 

Australia: A system will move through eastern areas Wednesday and produce only pockets of rainfall, a little disappointing for some winter wheat and canola areas that could use some more rain. A front will push through the southeast this weekend, but precipitation will largely remain confined to coastal areas. Colder air will move in across southern areas, however, and some areas across Victoria and New South Wales will be watched for frosts. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures will still be favored across western areas through the upcoming weekend. Another front could produce more widespread showers to eastern areas towards the middle of next week.

 

The player sheet for Sept. 11 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,500 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• WHEAT IMPORTS: Japan will import 8,370 tonnes of feed-quality wheat for livestock use via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said.
• SUGAR TENDER DELAY: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, said it delayed the deadline for offers in a sugar tender due on Sept. 15 and will announce a new deadline later.
• HURRICANE DISRUPTS EXPORTS: Agricultural exports out of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were disrupted ahead of Hurricane Francine’s landfall, according to operator reports.
• RUSSIAN GRAIN EXPORTS: Russia can export about 60 million metric tons of grain this year, with the official grain harvest forecast at 132 million tons, agriculture minister Oksana Lut said.

 

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase about 160,000 metric tons of corn and 35,000 tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

 TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Sept. 5.

• Corn est. range 700k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,220k
• Soybean est. range 700k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,295k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 1.5% to 23.714M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 23.338 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.08m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.062m

 

Russia’s Agriculture Ministry confirms forecast for grain exports at 60 mln tonnes in new agro season

Russia’s Agriculture Ministry has retained the previous forecast for grain exports at 60 million tonnes in the current July 2023-June 2024 agricultural season.

“We have decent carryover grain stocks, so we could export 60 million tonnes for now with a harvest of 132 million tonnes,” Agriculture Minister Oksana Luth said at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin and government members on Wednesday.

 

Drought in Pampas Set to Impact Argentina’s Wheat Crop: Rosario

As water shortages in the north and west of Argentina’s Pampas region continue to worsen, the likelihood of its wheat crop reaching a previous forecast of 20.5 million tons in 2024/25 is uncertain, the Rosario Board of Trade said in a report.

• 30% of wheat is in poor to regular condition, with no rainfall in September to help improve crops
• Report maintains projection for a 21% drop in 2024/25 corn planting amid the drought
• 2024/25 planted area for soybeans set to increase 7.5% YoY to 17.7 million hectares
• 2023/24 planted area for soybeans reduced to 16.4 million hectares

 

Ukraine Grain Exports Up 52.4% to 8.2M Tons Since Season’s Start

Ukraine’s grain exports reached 8.2m tons in the season that started July 1, compared with 5.4m tons for the same period a year ago, the Agriculture Ministry says on its website.

• Total exports include:
• 4.3m tons of wheat, up more than 70% from the same period a year ago
• 1.2m tons of barley
• 2.5m tons of corn, up 7% y/y
• Total grain exports in September alone so far have reached almost 900K tons
• Ukrainian farmers have already planted 640 thousands hectares of winter crops, which is 55% less. compared to the same period last year, according to the ministry’s data

 

EU Corn Crop to Fall to Third Lowest in Decade, Strategie Says

The European Union’s corn production in 2024-25 will be the third lowest in a decade, due to deteriorated yields in eastern Europe.

Around 58 million tons of corn will be produced in Europe, according to analysis firm Strategie Grains. With harvest underway, “yield outlooks have deteriorated sharply in central Europe, and once again in Romania and Bulgaria,” it said in a report.

Scorching weather hit corn crops in eastern Europe at a critical time over summer. Forecasters have since cut output expectations, with Strategie’s being one of the lower estimates.

The firm also forecasts an increase in imports of the grain. Europe will “simultaneously have to contend with very limited supply in Ukraine; it will therefore be more heavily reliant on Brazilian and Canadian corn,” according to the Strategie note.

Overall grain production in Europe is seen declining after all crops faced weather-related challenges this season. For soft wheat there is a significantly smaller harvest is confirmed for the EU “along with sharp year-on-year falls in Russia and, on a smaller scale, Ukraine.”

 

China Raises Estimates for Soybean and Cotton Imports in 2023-24

China raised estimates for imports of key agriculture commodities including soybeans and cotton after buyers took advantage of falling global prices, the agriculture ministry said.

• Soybean imports in the marketing year that runs through September 2024 would likely be 102 million tons, up 3.92 million tons from a forecast a month earlier, according to the China Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates report
• Bulging soybean inventories are curbing China’s appetite to buy more next quarter as demand wanes amid an economic downturn
• The ministry also raised its forecast for edible oils production over the same period
• China’s cotton imports in 2023-24 were likely 3.2 million tons, up 200,000 tons from last month’s forecast, as buyers piled on cheaper international supplies
• Estimates for output, imports and demand for corn and soybeans in 2024-25 year remain unchanged. Flooding has hit main production regions of corn, but the overall impact is limited
• Typhoon Yagi damaged some sugar cane crops in Guangxi, Guangdong and Hainan, although the ministry maintained its forecast for sugar output. Heavy rain in Inner Mongolia region disrupted growth of beets

 

Corn Ethanol Producer Inpasa To Build New Biorefinery In Brazil’s Bahia State With 1.2 Billion Reais Investment

• CORN ETHANOL PRODUCER INPASA TO BUILD NEW BIOREFINERY IN BRAZIL’S BAHIA STATE WITH 1.2 BILLION REAIS INVESTMENT – STATEMENT
• INPASA SAYS NEW BRAZIL BIOREFINERY WILL HAVE CAPACITY TO PROCESS 1 MILLION METRIC TONS PER YEAR – STATEMENT

 

India Aug. Vegetable Oil Imports Fall to 1.56m Tons: SEA

India’s vegetable oil imports fell to 1.56m tons in August from 1.9m tons in July, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Palm oil imports fell to 797,482 tons from 1.08m tons in July
• Soybean oil imports rose to 454,639 tons from 391,791 tons in July
• Sunflower oil imports fell to 284,108 tons from 366,541 tons in July

 

India’s palm oil imports plunge as buyers shift to soyoil

India’s palm oil imports in August fell more than a quarter from a month ago, primarily driven by sufficient domestic stocks and negative margins that discouraged refiners from purchasing more of the tropical oil, a leading trade body said on Thursday.

Lower purchases by the world’s biggest importer of vegetable oils could lead to higher stocks of palm oil in key producers Indonesia and Malaysia, weighing on benchmark futures.

India’s palm oil imports fell 26% in August from July to 797,482 metric tons, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) said in a statement.

Imports of soyoil rose 16% to 454,639 tons, while sunflower oil imports fell 22.5% to 284,108 tons, it said.

The drop in imports of palm and sunflower oils brought down the country’s total edible oil imports by 17% to 1.53 million tons.

“Refiners are shifting to soyoil from palm oil, as palm oil has become more expensive for Indian buyers in comparison to soyoil,” said a New-Delhi based dealer with a global trade house.

Palm oil typically trades at a discount to soft oils, but it is currently being offered at a premium of $40 per ton over rival soyoil for September shipments, according to SEA.

Palm oil imports also fell in August due to excessive buying in July, which led to a stock buildup with refiners, the dealer said.

Despite lower imports in August, vegetable oil stocks in the country rose to 2.93 million tons on Sept. 1, the highest in nine months, the trade body said.

In September, India’s edible oil imports could fall because of lower buying of soyoil and sunflower oil, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at edible oil trader and broker GGN Research.

“Palm oil imports could rise marginally to above 800,000 tons,” he said.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

 

India to buy soybeans to help farmers reeling from losses

India will buy soybeans from farmers of the central state of Madhya Pradesh at state-set support prices to help growers reeling from a crash in domestic rates for the oilseed, a government statement said on Wednesday.

India uses soybeans to manufacture soyoil, which helps the country cut its hefty edible oil imports, while the by-product soymeal is used for animal feed and exported mainly to Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

Farmers plant soybeans during the monsoon season in June and July and harvest the main summer oilseed crop from October.

Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan accepted a request from Madhya Pradesh to buy soybeans at the government-mandated support price, the statement said.

Prices of soybeans have dropped well below the government-set support price of 4,892 rupees ($58.27) per 100 kg, angering farmers.

Earlier, the government agreed to buy soybeans from growers of the western state of Maharashtra. Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh together account for nearly 70% of India’s total soybean output.

The government would also buy soybeans in the southern state of Karnataka.

Millions of farmers are seen as an influential voting bloc in India, the world’s leading producer of an array of crops such as rice, wheat, cane and cotton.

A spate of export curbs imposed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has already fuelled anger among farmers.

After Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party suffered losses in rural constituencies in this year’s general election, the government is keen to placate farmers ahead of state assembly elections in states such as Haryana and Maharashtra, political commentators say.

 

Bayer Says Jury Finds in Favor of Monsanto in US Trial

A US jury reached a verdict in the Young Roundup product liability trial in favor of Monsanto in the Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas, Bayer says in a statement.

• “Verdict makes clear that the plaintiff failed to prove that Roundup was the cause of the injuries alleged in this case, consistent with the scientific evidence and the consensus of regulatory bodies and their scientific assessments worldwide”
• Bayer continues to stand fully behind the safety of Roundup products

 

 

 

 

 

 

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