Global Ag News for Oct 4.24

TOP HEADLINES

Bird Flu Infects Two California Workers Exposed to Sick Cows

California said Thursday it identified its first two human cases of bird flu in farm workers in the state’s Central Valley amid a nationwide outbreak that’s spread through cattle and poultry.

The avian influenza infections, also known as H5N1, were detected in workers exposed to sick dairy cattle, the California Department of Public Health said in a statement. There’s no known link between the people, and both experienced only mild symptoms, including conjunctivitis, the agency said. Neither had respiratory symptoms or was hospitalized.

An investigation in California is ongoing, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which confirmed the two cases through laboratory testing. In total, the CDC has identified 16 human cases of bird flu across the country.

The risk of infection to the general public remains low, the CDC said.

California, the largest milk producer in the country, is one of 14 states that’s identified sick herds of dairy cattle. H5N1 was first identified in California cows in August.

The state is seeking to lower the risk to farm workers with personal protective equipment. Over the last four months, the state health department has distributed more than 340,000 respirators, 1.3 million gloves and 160,000 goggles and face shields, among other forms of protection. It’s also distributed seasonal flu shots to farmworkers.

The state health department said that pasteurized milk and dairy products continue to be safe to consume.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 7 1/4 in SRW, down 6 in HRW, down 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal up $1.00; Soyoil up 0.38.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 16 1/2 in SRW, up 29 in HRW, up 36 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/2; Soybeans down 18 1/4; Soymeal down $11.60; Soyoil up 2.49.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 12 1/4 in SRW, up 21 3/4 in HRW, up 23 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans down 7; Soymeal down $8.10; Soyoil up 1.60.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.0% in SRW, down 5.6% in HRW, down 10.9% in HRS; Corn is down 9.7%; Soybeans down 19.0%; Soymeal down 13.8%; Soyoil down 6.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans down 8 yuan; Soymeal up 38; Soyoil down 36; Palm oil down 62; Corn up 34 — Malaysian Palm is up 110.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 110 ringgit (+2.63%) at 4292.

China markets remain closed for Holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 232 Soybeans; 352 Soyoil; 126 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 3 were: SRW Wheat up 344 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,077, Corn up 5,370, Soybeans up 9,206, Soymeal down 2,167, Soyoil up 2,700.

 

Northern Plains: Fronts keep moving through the region but are not bringing any precipitation. Winds have been elevated though, increasing the risk of wildfires and a few have developed. Temperatures continue to be above-normal despite the fronts moving through. One front moves through Saturday with strong winds and another late next week or weekend.

Central/Southern Plains: Warm to hot temperatures and dry conditions continue in the region through next week, favorable for harvest, but not for winter wheat establishment. The next chance for rain would be next weekend at the earliest, but even that looks scarce. 

Midwest: At least two fronts will be moving through over the next several days, but they are not forecast to produce much in the way of precipitation, favorable for drying out soils for fieldwork. Though fronts will be moving through, they do not have access to much cool air, and temperatures should remain rather warm on most days, getting pushed back toward normal after a front goes through, but then rising above normal a day or two later. 

Delta: Dry conditions are forecast through next week, which should be helpful for harvest, but not for any winter crop establishment or water levels on the Mississippi River. 

Southeast: Showers may move through on Friday with a front passing through, but most areas will stay dry through next week. We will be watching a potential tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico, but the current forecast is to keep its heavy rain and other impacts over Florida. 

Brazil: Wet season showers continue in central Brazil but they continue to be spotty into next week. The late start to significant rain is causing a slow start to soybean planting, which will have a more significant impact for the coming safrinha corn and cotton crops that will be planted in early 2025. Southern Brazil has had more opportunities to pick up good rainfall over recent weeks, which continued this week. Another front is forecast for next week which may be more promising for rainfall in central Brazil later next week. That could be the kicker the region needs to start widespread planting. 

Argentina: A front moved through with limited showers this week, but most areas have stayed dry, continuing the trend of dry conditions that has significantly delayed corn planting for western areas and caused some to abandon their winter wheat due to poor conditions and limited or no rainfall. Far southern and eastern areas have fared better. A more promising system will move in on Sunday with showers for northern areas, but could produce more widespread rain early next week. Models have been backing off on heavier rain for western areas that are in the deepest drought, but this system would not reverse the outstanding drought anyway. More rain is going to be needed soon to stave off the significant late plantings and increase soil moisture for the limited crop that has already been planted. Soybean planting starts in November and delays to that crop could come there if rain doesn’t come this month either.

 

The player sheet for Oct. 3 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, sellers of 2,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 6,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia issued a tender to buy 295,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat for arrival from December through January, the General Food Security Authority (GFSA) said on Thursday. The wheat can be sourced from optional global origins.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 137,048 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday. 

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 320,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 1.44M Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 1.68M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Sept. 26.

• Corn sales rose to 1,684k tons vs 535k in previous week
• Soybean sales fell to 1,445k tons vs 1,575k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 444k tons vs 169k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following table shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Sept. 26, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 726k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 541k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Japan with 170k tons

 

Argentina Dryness Is Hurting Crops, Grain Exchange Says

Planting of the first corn crop is slower than anticipated because of dryness on farms, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly estimates report.

• In the heart of the crop belt, known as zona nucleo, wheat plants are showing signs of stress from the dryness, according to the report
• If rains don’t come before the plants flower, yield potential will be capped
• NOTE: Most Argentine wheat is harvested in Nov. and Dec.

 

Argentine Corn Production Estimate Oct. 3: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2024-25 corn planting area unchanged at 6.3m ha
• Corn planting advances to 13.7% complete from 10.5%

 

India aims to double edible oil output to trim reliance on imports

India on Thursday approved a 101 billion rupee ($1.2 billion) programme to double edible oil production in the country within seven years, aiming to reduce dependence on costlier imports, the government said in a statement.

The world’s largest importer of edible oils, India currently fulfils nearly two-thirds of its demand through overseas purchases of palm oil, soyoil, and sunflower oil, primarily from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine.

Under the programme, oilseed productivity will be increased by promoting high-yielding, high-oil content varieties and expanding cultivation. Advanced technologies like genome editing will be used to develop superior seeds, the statement said.

The programme aims to increase edible oil production from the current 12.7 million metric tons to 25.45 million tons by 2030-31, fulfilling around 72% of the country’s projected domestic requirement.

The country’s edible oil import bill surged to $15 billion in 2023/24 from $2.2 billion in 2006/07. During the same period, India’s edible oil imports rose to 15.5 million metric tons from 4.37 million tons.

Last month, India raised the basic import tax on crude and refined edible oils by 20 percentage points to help protect farmers struggling with lower oilseed prices.

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Reserves Seen at 8-Month High on Poor Exports

• Stocks rose 3.2% to 1.94 million tons last month, survey shows
• Crude palm oil output likely dropped 1.1% to 1.87 million tons

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia probably climbed to their highest level since January last month as exports from the world’s second-biggest grower dropped, which may threaten a price rally.

Inventories expanded 3.2% from a month earlier to 1.94 million tons in September, according to the median of 11 estimates in a Bloomberg survey of plantation executives, traders and analysts. That would be a second month of growth, but reserves are still about 16% lower than a year earlier.

Crude palm oil production likely fell 1.1% to 1.87 million tons, according to the survey, after rising for two months. Exports probably declined 2% to 1.5 million tons, falling for a second month after jumping almost 40% in July.

Higher stockpiles will be bearish for prices, said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, head of trading and hedging strategies at Kaleesuwari Intercontinental. However, the market is currently not entirely directed by the supply and demand situation, he said, adding that the Malaysian currency and crude oil prices could play crucial roles in determining prices in the near term.

Palm oil has surged almost 16% since the middle of last month. Benchmark futures rose as much as 4% to 4,350 ringgit ($1,029) a ton in Kuala Lumpur on Friday.

 

Turkey to Keep Some Curbs on Wheat Imports Even When Ban Lifts

• Market will be only partially opened this month, letter says
• Ban implemented to shield local producers from price decline

Turkey plans to continue limiting some wheat imports when its four-month ban on purchases ends this month, according to a document seen by Bloomberg.

After Oct. 15, the market will be only partially opened using a quota system, according to a letter from the Turkish Flour Industrialists’ Federation to millers. It indicated that the federation had received the directive from Turkish officials.

Turkey, usually one of the world’s biggest wheat buyers, implemented the temporary ban in June to shield local producers from being hit by a decline in prices during the harvest.

The measures outlined in the letter would mean millers will be allowed to import just 15 tons of wheat for every 85 tons they buy from the Turkish grain board, according to traders. While traders expect the measures to be implemented as laid out in the document, it’s not binding and there could be adjustments before an official announcement.

The federation declined to comment on the letter, which didn’t say how long the new measures would last. The Turkish Trade Ministry and Agriculture Ministry said they are working on the issue but did not provide further details when contacted by Bloomberg.

 

French Corn Harvest Under Way, Trailing 5-Year Average: AgriMer

Some 2% of the corn crop was harvested as of Monday, lagging behind the five-year average of 26%, FranceAgriMer said on its website.

• Some 1% of the French soft-wheat crop was planted as of Monday, slightly lower than the five-year average
• Winter-barley crop was 3% planted, compared with a five-year average of 5%
• Some 79% of French corn was in good or very good condition, steady from previous week; That compares with 83% a year earlier

 

FAO Trims Outlook for World Grain Reserves Amid Smaller EU Crops

Global grain stockpiles at the end of the 2024-25 season are now seen at 888.1m tons, down 1.7m tons from a September forecast, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization says in a report.

• That’s due to a cut in coarse grain supplies, amid a lower forecast for the EU’s corn and barley harvests
• Meanwhile, outlook for wheat stockpiles was revised higher

 

Africa Corn Export Forecast Raised For Second Time

South Africa’s Agricultural Business Chamber has raised its forecast for the country’s corn exports for the year ending April 2025 to 1.9 million tons.

• The increase, from a previous estimate of 1.85 million tons, is due to higher-than-expected stocks carried over from the last season, Wandile Sihlobo, the chamber’s chief economist, said in a statement sent to Bloomberg on Wednesday.
• Of the exports 1.2 million tons will likely be white corn and 700,000 tons yellow corn, the chamber said. It’s still a significant decline from last season’s shipments of 3.4 million tons.

 

Egypt to Use Corn, Sorghum in Bread to Cut Wheat Imports: Rtrs

Egypt is planning to cut wheat imports and spend less on subsidised bread by adding corn or sorghum, Reuters reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

• Government scrapped an earlier plan to increase the rate at which flour used in subsidised bread is extracted from wheat
• Latest proposal is for corn flour to mix with wheat flour at a 1:4 ratio, starting April 2025, saving about one million metric tons of wheat
  • Was presented to bakers and millers at the end of September
• Egypt’s supply ministry did not respond to Reuters’ request to comment

 

Global Food Prices Rise Fastest in 18 Months, Led by Sugar Gains

Global food prices saw the largest jump in 18 months in September with sugar prices leading an across-the-board increase across commodities including wheat and edible oil.

An index of food-commodity prices created by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization rose to the highest level since August last year, according to data released on Friday.

While the index tracks raw commodity costs rather than retail prices, the rise could indicate that elevated food prices may continue to hit consumers as weather and geopolitical risks roil food markets.

All commodities that make up the index rose, gaining 3% from August. The largest gains were seen in sugar prices on signs of a worse crop in Brazil and concerns over India’s export abilities. Vegetable oil and grain prices also saw notable hikes.

 

Weather conditions remain poor for winter grain sowing in Ukraine, forecasters say

Weather conditions in September remained unfavourable for already started winter grain sowing in Ukraine, APK-Inform agriculture consultancy quoted state weather forecasters as saying.

“Conditions of soil preparation for sowing and sowing of winter grain crops in most areas remained unfavourable due to a lack of effective precipitation and a lack of productive moisture in the soil,” forecasters said in a report.

An abnormal heatwave dominated most regions since early summer and forecasters say that in almost half of the areas for sowing winter crops the topsoil is extremely dry.

“Dry weather conditions complicated the initial development of already sown winter rape and wheat, in some places the grain did not germinate for a long time,” they noted.

Forecasters said conditions were satisfactory only in western regions.

Ukrainian agriculture ministry said this week that farmers had sown 1.82 million hectares of winter grains for the 2025 harvest as of Sept. 30, equating to 35.1% of the expected area of 5.19 million hectares. That included 1.67 million hectares of winter wheat, 119,400 hectares of winter barley and 34,800 hectares of rye. Winter wheat generally accounts for 95% of Ukraine’s overall wheat output each year. Farmers had sown 1.7 million hectares of winter wheat, or 40% of the expected area, as of Oct. 3, 2023.

 

Brazil Seen Importing Most Diesel in Two Years as Economy Gains

• American refiners clawing back some market share from Russia
• Harvest of nation’s corn crop also adding to fuel demand

Brazil is expected to import the most diesel in two years this month as farmers harvest the corn crop and the country’s resilient economy supports demand from truckers.

Diesel imports are expected to touch 452,000 barrels a day in October, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler. That follows strong imports in September as farmers rev up machinery to collect the corn crop, which is mostly trucked to ports and consumer centers.

 

Bayer sees Intacta2 Xtend GMO seed covering 30% of Brazil’s soybeans

Germany’s Bayer forecasts that some 30% of Brazil’s soybean area will be sowed with its genetically modified biotech seed Intacta2 Xtend in the 2024/25 season, doubling the share from the previous crop, a top executive said this week.

The exact share Intacta2 Xtend will reach should be clear only in some two or three weeks after expected rains allow a broad planting in Brazil’s soy fields, Bayer’s head of regulatory science for Latin America Geraldo Berger told Reuters in an interview on Monday.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 399k tons in the week ending Sept. 28 from 502k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 37% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 18.7% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $29.93 per short ton, an increase of $0.56 from the previous week

 

 

 

 

 

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