Global Ag News for Oct 31.24

TOP HEADLINES

Argentina transportation unions strike against Milei’s austerity moves

A 24-hour strike launched on Wednesday by transportation unions in Argentina against President Javier Milei’s austerity measures blocked grain shipments at a major hub and affected thousands due to the lack of operating trains and airplanes.

Workers were protesting a series of layoffs in public agencies by right-wing libertarian Milei while demanding higher wages, as the government pushes through with austerity measures to balance its accounts amid a major economic crisis.

The strike was blocking ships from docking or departing from the grains ports in Rosario, a major ports chamber announced, hurting trade in Argentina, the world’s largest soy meal exporter and a major corn and wheat supplier.

“The union responsible for tying and untying boats are not allowing them to dock or depart,” the head of the CAPyM chamber, Guillermo Wade, told Reuters. “The rest of the port is working normally, loading ships and unloading trucks.”

The strike also affected activities at the ports of Buenos Aires, La Plata, Bahia Blanca and Rosario, as well as waste collection and air travel, delaying flights operated by state-run flag carrier Aerolineas Argentinas and other airlines.

Some unions protested against Milei’s plans to privatize Aerolineas Argentinas, which has reduced its workforce in recent months. Education unions demanding higher university budgets also joined the strike.

Buses were the only mode of transport operating normally as unions representing workers in the sector plan to carry out a separate strike on Thursday, as they negotiate a salary hike.

“I have to work and this is ruining me. I think the strike is wrong,” a worker interviewed by TV channel La Nacion+ said while standing in a long line at a bus stop. “It took me an hour and a half to get here,” he added.

Omar Maturano, the head of a train conductors’ union, told TV channel TN that the strike was the only way the workers found to “fight back against (the government’s) economic and social policy.”

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3/4 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 4 3/4; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil up 0.47.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 3/4 in SRW, down 1 1/2 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 5 3/4; Soybeans down 5 3/4; Soymeal down $4.80; Soyoil down 0.10.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 11 1/2 in SRW, down 9 3/4 in HRW, down 13 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 13; Soybeans down 79 1/4; Soymeal down $39.50; Soyoil up 0.97.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.5% in SRW, down 11.1% in HRW, down 16.4% in HRS; Corn is down 13.1%; Soybeans down 24.4%; Soymeal down 22.0%; Soyoil down 7.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans up 30 yuan; Soymeal up 4; Soyoil up 32; Palm oil up 94; Corn up 9 — Malaysian Palm is up 59.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 59 ringgit (+1.27%) at 4696.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 155 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 30 were: SRW Wheat up 10,432 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,356, Corn up 12,811, Soybeans down 9,810, Soymeal up 7,061, Soyoil up 11,456.

Brazil: Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. Reports from Mato Grosso of rapid planting progress have meant that producers there have almost caught up to the normal pace and the continued good weather should allow that to persist this week as well. The likelihood of a significant portion of the crop being planted late has fallen dramatically. Southern areas are going through a drier period, with more limited showers over the next week. Conditions there may fall a bit, but they can handle a drier stretch as long as it does not last too long.

Argentina: Drier conditions continue for one more day. However, the pattern looks to become more favorable again with showers starting in the west on Thursday and more systems moving through this weekend and next week, bringing periods of needed showers through. Corn establishment has gotten much better and soybean planting will start this week or next in mostly good conditions as well. 

Northern Plains: Several storm systems will start to pass through or nearby the region through early next week. That could bring in some needed precipitation, but may result in some snow in some spots. Drought is not likely to be eliminated in the more active pattern, but some lucky areas that get hit multiple times could see soil moisture building. Temperatures will likely be fluctuating quite a bit in the more active pattern. 

Central/Southern Plains: An active pattern is in place through the middle of next week with multiple systems and fronts bringing scattered showers throughout much of the region. The rain may increase soil moisture, but the likelihood of getting into the southwestern Plains HRW wheat areas is a bit uncertain. The active pattern may be more disruptive to the end of the harvest, though. 

Midwest: The pattern will be more active through the middle of next week with a pair of systems moving across the region through Thursday, another bringing in showers over the weekend, and two more systems bringing widespread rainfall early-to-mid next week. While drought has been increasing over the last couple of months, the active pattern may help to reduce drought in some areas. However, turning the momentum will be tough to accomplish and this busier period will not eliminate drought or the concerns for building soil moisture before the ground freezes. 

Black Sea: Rainfall deficits are very large in the east and the window for winter wheat establishment has essentially closed with frosts and freezes becoming more likely from now on. Overall drier-than-normal conditions are in the forecast for the next two weeks, though several fronts moving through will bring limited showers and larger drops in temperatures, especially next week. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall. 

Australia: A few systems will move through over the next couple of weeks, but with limited precipitation in the forecast. Some areas are doing well while others are too dry, creating mixed conditions for filling wheat and canola. The momentum is toward drier soils, though. With harvest starting up in the north, the time for rain to be beneficial is coming to an end, but would help out the coming cotton and sorghum crops that will be planted in November.

 

The player sheet for Oct. 30 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, buyers of 4,000 soybeans, and buyers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN, CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China, another 132,000 tons of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations and 273,048 tons of U.S. corn to unknown destinations. All the sales are for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• ADDITIONAL CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) bought an additional 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn late on Tuesday after purchasing 136,000 tons in an international tender earlier in the day.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a second private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 101,000 metric tons of rice.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy an estimated 500,000 metric tons of rice
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 4,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

TODAY

CROP SURVEY: US Soybean Crush and Corn for Ethanol

The following is from a Bloomberg survey of six anlaysts.

• Soybean crush seen at 187.6m bu in Sept., a 7.3% rise from a year ago
• Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of September seen at 1.534b lbs, down from 1.607b
• Corn used in ethanol production seen up 4.5% y/y to 447.8m bu

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 2% to 21.771M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.281 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.082m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.076m

 

USDA attaché sees Argentina 2024/25 soybean crop at 52 million metric tons

Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Buenos Aires:

“Post increases marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 soybean production to reach 52 million metric tons (MMT), up 1 MMT higher than USDA official and Post’s previous estimate on 17.2 million hectares (MHA) harvested as producers shift to more soy away from corn over fears of the impact of corn stunt (leafhopper/Chicharrita) in corn, continued low prices, and expected dry conditions. Soybean crush is increased to 42 MMT in MY2024/25 fueled by higher production and higher imports, primarily from Paraguay as Argentina’s processing sector continues its recovery from several years of drought. Sunflower production is also poised to increase to 1.9 MHA planted resulting in a production of 4 MMT in MY2024/2025 with expansion tempered by dry conditions in the northern growing region at the ideal planting window. Post maintains previous peanut production, crush, and export forecasts in MY2024/2025 and MY2023/2024 with a production of 1.35 MMT in both years.”

 

China looks to enhance soybean industry cooperation with Russia

China is willing to collaborate with Russia to deepen cooperation in the soybean industry, its agriculture ministry quoted an official as saying on Wednesday.

Speaking at a forum in Moscow on Tuesday, Li Jinghui said that agricultural cooperation is a key component of China-Russia bilateral relations, according to a ministry statement.

 

Rabobank sees Brazil’s 2024/25 soy planted area growing 1.5% from previous cycle

Brazil’s soy planted area was seen rising 1.5% in the 2024/25 crop from the previous cycle, Rabobank said on Wednesday.

In a report about Brazil’s agribusiness outlook for 2025, Rabobank said it expects the country soybean planted area to reach 47 million hectares (116 million acres) in the current crop.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT

Brazil is the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter.

ADDITIONAL CONTEXT

Earlier this month, Brazil’s national crop agency Conab estimated the area planted with soybean in the country to grow 2.8% to 47.3 million hectares, the lowest year-on-year increase in six years.

In August, China’s COFCO International had expected the area planted with soybeans in Brazil to grow at its slowest pace in a decade amid reduced margins, seeing it at near 47 million hectares.

BY THE NUMBERS

Rabobank said it expects soybean production in Brazil to reach a record high of 167 million metric tons, from an estimated 153 million tons last cycle.

For Brazil’s 2024/25 corn, Rabobank expects an output of 125 million tons, 3 million tons above the previous cycle.

KEY QUOTES

Rabobank also said the “material delay” in planting amid adverse weather in the country has not led it to cut its soybean 2024/25 output estimate for Brazil.

“There is no negative impact correlated between planting delay and reduction in the field’s expected productivity,” its analysts wrote in the report.

 

Malaysia Oct. Palm Oil Exports +11.45% M/m: Intertek

Following is a summary of Malaysia’s Oct. palm oil exports according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Total exports for Oct. 2024: 1.624m tons
• Crude palm oil exports: 485,790 tons, 29.9% of total
• India & Subcontinent led all destinations for total exports: 446,980 tons

 

Ukraine will launch minimum grain export prices scheme in Dec, minister says

Ukraine’s new system of minimum export prices for the country’s key grain and oilseed shipments is likely to be operational at the beginning of December, Ukrainian agriculture minister Vitaliy Koval said on Wednesday.

He told Reuters that a small number of regulatory acts are still needed for the final introduction of the system.

The government launched the plan to tackle price distortions linked to the war with Russia, which has seen an increase in domestic cash purchases of some agricultural products and their subsequent export at artificially low prices to avoid taxes.

The cabinet has already approved the procedure for setting minimum prices.

The new scheme was originally intended to be launched in August, but a large number of necessary legislative changes delayed the entry into force of the new regime.

The new mechanism will apply to shipments of wheat, corn, sunflower oil, soybeans, rapeseed and some other agricultural commodities, which remain Ukraine’s biggest source of external revenues.

In line with the new rules, minimum permissible export prices will be calculated on the basis of state customs service data, taking into account the terms of delivery for the previous month and using a 10% discount.

Ukraine is a major grain grower and exporter globally and has shipped abroad 14.1 million metric tons of various grains so far the current 2024/25 July-June season, official data showed.

 

SovEcon Lowers Russia 2024-25 Grain Export Forecast

SovEcon cut its forecast for Russia’s wheat exports in 2024-25 to 45.9m tons from 47.6m tons, citing “a decrease in the crop forecast and increased intervention by the Ministry of Agriculture in market operations.”

• Corn exports seen at 2.4m tons, up from 2.2m tons; barley exports seen unchanged at 2.4m tons
• Says policy that “Russian grain must be delivered to consumers by Russian exporters only” is also impacting wheat exports; it is expected to “negatively impact many small and medium-sized exporters who source wheat domestically and sell it on an FOB basis to other firms”

 

Kazakhstan hopes to resolve agricultural trade tension with Russia within a week

Kazakh agriculture minister Aidarbek Saparov said on Thursday he hoped that issues with Russian curbs on the import of grain and other agricultural products from Kazakhstan would be resolved within a week.

Saparov, speaking after talks with Russia’s agricultural safety watchdog, said one of his deputies has departed for Moscow where negotiations would continue.

Trade tension between the neighbours has raised concerns because Kazakhstan, whose key export is oil, depends on transit via Russia to sell it on Western markets.

Russian authorities said this week they had received complaints from domestic companies that Kazakhstan was issuing phytosanitary certificates in their names, despite the companies having made no such requests.

Kazakhstan banned imports of wheat from Russia – and all other countries – in August, saying it needed to protect the domestic market.

 

Startup’s Soybean Seed Shown to Cut Carbon Intensity of Biofuels

• ZeaKal seeks to help farmers respond to energy markets’ needs
• CEO working to attract partners for climate-friendly fuels

A startup trying to break through traditional agriculture by selling more climate-friendly seeds to farmers is one step closer to its goal.

ZeaKal Inc. said a firm that provides greenhouse gas assessments has validated its PhotoSeed soybeans as able to reduce the carbon intensity score of sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, and renewable diesel under various government programs.

Soybeans can be crushed into soy oil, a popular ingredient for making SAF and renewable diesel. Incentives for such products with the lowest carbon-intensity, or CI, scores have set off a wave of deals between agriculture and energy companies as governments encourage production of lower-emitting fuels to fight climate change.

ZeaKal’s seed was shown to cut CI for SAF by 4.6 points versus standard commodity seeds under a United Nations model for calculating the carbon dioxide footprint of biofuels. The analysis, made by Foxley LLC, found that the reduction was 2.5 points under a US Department of Energy model used for a tax credit set to expire later this year.

Han Chen, chief executive officer of ZeaKal — which counts seed giant Corteva Inc. as an investor — hopes the finding attracts energy partners looking to make more climate-friendly fuels. The development comes as US officials try to find ways to help farmers profit from low-carbon markets for their crops.

“PhotoSeed is going to create new revenue for farmers and allow them to be responsive to the needs of energy markets,” Chen said in an interview. “This technology allows growers to share in the value of the additional oil and protein and improved sustainability features embedded in the seed.”

San Diego-based ZeaKal, which is also working on PhotoSeed for corn, has said its soybean seed produces 15% more soy oil than standard commodity seeds without reducing crop yield or requiring extra farm inputs. It also produces more protein in soy meal, which is used in livestock feed and created along with oil by crushing soybeans.

ZeaKal aims to start selling PhotoSeed soybeans in the US starting in 2026.

 

Australia must brace for longer fire seasons and marine heatwaves ahead, report says

Australia must brace for longer and more dangerous fire seasons and marine heatwaves in the years ahead, while swift changes in weather patterns might result in more hot days and fewer cool days, a government report said on Thursday.

The oceans around Australia are continuing to warm, with increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere leading to more acidic oceans, particularly in the country’s south, said the Bureau of Meteorology and national science agency CSIRO in their biennial joint climate report.

“Rising sea levels around Australia are increasing the risk of inundation and damage to coastal infrastructure and communities,” CSIRO Research Manager Jaci Brown said in a statement accompanying the report.

Australia, a major crops producer, has experienced over the last decade extreme weather events such as frequent flooding, droughts, marine heatwaves and devastating fires that some experts attribute to climate change.

Heavy rainfall events are becoming more intense, with an increase of around 10% or more in some regions, though the average duration of drought is expected to rise in the country’s south and east in the decades ahead, the report said.

Australia is continuing to warm, with eight of the nine warmest years on record occurring since 2013, said Karl Braganza, climate services manager at the weather bureau.

“This warming has led to an increase in extreme fire weather, and longer fire seasons across large parts of the country,” Braganza said.

A shift toward drier conditions between April and October across the country’s southwest and southeast, and lower rainfall in the southwest could become a permanent feature of Australia’s climate, the report said.

Coastal floods that occur occasionally will become chronic later this century, while the warming and acidification of oceans will cause more severe bleaching events in coral reefs, including the Great Barrier Reef.

Coral bleaching happens when the water gets too warm, causing corals to expel the colourful algae living in their tissues and turn white.

 

South Africa Court Sets Aside Bayer GM Corn Approval, Beeld Says

South Africa’s Supreme Court of Appeal set aside the government’s approval of Bayer’s drought-resistant genetically modified variety of corn seed, the Johannesburg-based newspaper reports, citing the ruling.

Court found the South African government’s approval process for MON87460 seed was faulty

 

 

 

 

 

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