Explore Special Offers & White Papers from AFS

Global Ag News for Oct 26th

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn 66% Harvested, Soybeans 73% Harvested

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 3/4 in SRW, down 5 in HRW, down 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal down $0.08; Soyoil up 0.10.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 1 1/4 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, up 11 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans up 14 1/4; Soymeal down $0.10; Soyoil up 1.15. For the month to date wheat prices are up 29 1/4 in SRW, up 41 in HRW, up 112 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans down 20 1/2; Soymeal down $2.30; Soyoil up 4.55.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 24 yuan ; Soymeal down 22; Soyoil up 118; Palm oil up 174; Corn up 37 — Malasyian Palm is up 45. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 45 ringgit (+0.91%) at 5014 but there is increasing concern that the rally will attract regulatory scrutiny in top buyers India and China.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 17 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 25 were: SRW Wheat up 4,570 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,118, Corn up 2,266, Soybeans down 16,702, Soymeal down 805, Soyoil up 1,366.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers north Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers west Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers west Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday. East: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers east Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, below normal Monday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for Oct. 25 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 9,500 soybeans, buyers of 4,500 soyoil, and unchanged in corn or soymeal.

TENDERS

  • WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in Pakistan’s purchase tender for 90,000 tonnes of wheat was believed to be $394.38 a tonne c&f, European traders said in initial assessments after the tender closed on Monday. The state agency Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) was still considering the offers and no purchase had been reported

PENDING TENDERS

  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
  • WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
  • WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn 66% Harvested, Soybeans 73% Harvested

  • Corn harvest 66% vs 52% last week, and 70% a year ago
  • Soybeans harvested 73% vs 60% last week, and 82% a year ago
  • Winter wheat 46% G/E vs 41% a year ago
  • Winter wheat planted 80% vs 70% last week, and 84% a year ago
  • Winter wheat emerged 55% vs 44% last week, and 60% a year ago
  • Cotton 64% G/E vs 64% last week, and 40% a year ago
  • Cotton harvested 35% vs 28% last week, and 41% a year ago

U.S. Inspected 545k Tons of Corn for Export, 2.104m of Soybean

In week ending Oct. 21, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

  • Corn: 545k tons vs 1,049k the previous wk, 681k a yr ago
  • Soybeans: 2,104k tons vs 2,450k the previous wk, 2,889k a yr ago
  • Wheat: 140k tons vs 141k the previous wk, 400k a yr ago

Europe Sees Good Weather for Winter-Grain, Rapeseed Sowing: MARS

Farmers in Europe have been able to make good progress with winter-crop sowing and summer-crop harvesting due to favorable autumn weather, the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit wrote Monday in a report.

Exceptions include southern Romania, where drought since late summer has hampered emergence of winter crops

Brazil Soybean Planting 38% Complete as of Oct. 21: AgRural

This compares to 22% a week earlier and 23% a year earlier, consulting firm AgRural says in an emailed report.

  • Mato Grosso and Parana states, the more advanced regions, are already approaching the final stretch of planting
  • In other states, work has picked up and is ahead of the 5-year average in Matopiba and Rio Grande do Sul, which have a later calendar
  • Summer corn planting in Brazil Center-South is 53% done, compared with 45% a week earlier and 46% in 5-year average

Brazil Planted 35.8% of 2021/22 Soybean Crop by Oct. 22: Safras

Compares with 21.1% a week earlier and 16.3% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

  • Summer corn planting 63.7% done, compared to a 5-year average of 60.2%

Malaysia Oct. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports to India 261,105 Tons: SGS

  • India imported 261,105 tons; -16.3% m/m
  • EU imported 178,880 tons; -39.7% m/m

Morocco Plans to Remove Import Tax on Wheat: MAP

Cabinet meeting Thursday will examine two decrees related to the removal of an import tax on both soft and hard wheat, the government said in a statement carried by state news agency MAP.

  • Government didn’t elaborate on details of decree
  • Morocco currently subjects soft-wheat imports to a 135% import duty and hard wheat to a 170% tax

WHEAT/CEPEA: Dollar raises parity and underpins wheat prices in Brazil

Although wheat crops are currently being harvested in Brazil, and despite the possibility of a record harvest, wheat prices have been firm in the Brazilian market, majorly underpinned by the increase in the import parity – due to the dollar appreciation against the Real – and wheat valuations abroad.

Based on data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), between October 11 and 15, the import parity price for the wheat from Argentina and delivered to Paraná closed at USD 313.71/ton. Considering the average of the US dollar in that period, of BRL 5.5026, the price for the wheat from Argentina amounted to BRL 1,726.24/ton, while the wheat produced and sold in Paraná averaged BRL 1,572.03/ton, according to data from Cepea. In Rio Grande do Sul, the import parity for the product from Argentina closed at USD 294.22/ton, amounting to BRL 1,618.98/ton, against BRL 1,464.73/ton on the average of the state calculated by Cepea.

Data from Cepea show that, between October 15 and 22, the prices paid to wheat farmers rose by 1.36% in Rio Grande do Sul, 0.85% in Santa Catarina and 0.39% in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values dropped by 1.24% in Santa Catarina and by a slight 0.42% in São Paulo. On the other hand, in Rio Grande do Sul and in Paraná, prices increased by 0.69% and by 0.07%, respectively. The US dollar rose by 3.3%, to BRL 5.64 on Friday, 22.

In general, liquidity has been low in the Brazilian market, since agents are currently focused on the harvesting, which has been halted by rains, mainly in Rio Grande do Sul. Besides, some agents are concerned about the quality of some of the wheat already harvested. Many farmers are not interested in closing deals, expecting prices to increase as the US dollar rises against the Real.

Brazil’s Beef Exports Plunge 49% As China Ban Lingers

Daily average beef exports fell to 4,174 metric tons in the first 15 business days of October from 8,134 tons in the year-earlier period, according to data from Brazil’s economy ministry.

  • Average export price rose 23% to $5,233 per ton, ministry says on website
  • NOTE: Brazil beef exports to China have been halted since Sept. 4 due to report of two “atypical” cases of mad cow disease
  • NOTE: China is the main destination of Brazil’s beef

U.S. Poultry Slaughter Rose 0.9% Y/y in September: USDA

Slaughter rose to 5.87 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s monthly poultry slaughter report released on the agency’s website.

  • Jan.-Sept. slaughter up 0% from the same period a year ago
  • Chicken live weight rose 1.1% in September from year ago
  • Chickens condemned post-mortem down 8.6% y/y
  • Condemned ante-mortem up 1.8% y/y

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore Special Offers & White Papers from Archer Financial Services

Get Started

Contact Us Today