Global Ag News for Oct 18.24

TOP HEADLINES

Russia’s Kursk region declares emergency due to winter grain crop failure

Russia’s Kursk region has introduced emergency measures due to a drought which killed winter grain crops, the local government said on Thursday.

The measures will enable affected farmers to seek compensation. Kursk is Russia’s seventh largest grain producing region. It has also suffered from a major Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s territory, which started on Aug. 6.

Russia Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said on Oct. 7 that the country’s grain harvest would be hit by the impact of Ukraine’s attacks on grain-producing regions close to the border and by bad weather in many other regions.

Kursk Governor Alexei Smirnov said in September that, after the incursion, the harvesting of grains could not be completed on an area of 160,000 hectares. He estimated the damage at almost $1 billion.

The Russian National Union of Agricultural Insurers reported in early October that in 2024 there were 29 weather-related emergencies that resulted in crop damage recorded in 26 regions of the country, a 45% increase compared to last year.

Russia plans to harvest 130 million tons of grain, down from an earlier forecast of 132 million tons. The new estimate is a an 12% drop from 148 million tons in 2023 and a 18% drop from a record 158 million tons in 2022.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3/4 in SRW, up 3/4 in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 1/2; Soymeal up $3.00; Soyoil down 0.16.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 6 1/4 in SRW, down 4 in HRW, down 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/2; Soybeans down 15 1/4; Soymeal up $5.70; Soyoil down 0.65.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 4 3/4 in SRW, up 13 in HRW, up 7 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 16 1/2; Soybeans down 67 3/4; Soymeal down $20.50; Soyoil down 0.88.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.6% in SRW, down 6.5% in HRW, down 12.2% in HRS; Corn is down 13.4%; Soybeans down 23.4%; Soymeal down 16.9%; Soyoil down 10.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans down 5 yuan; Soymeal down 23; Soyoil unchanged; Palm oil up 18; Corn down 13 — Malaysian Palm is down 21.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 21 ringgit (-0.49%) at 4257.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 232 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 176 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 17 were: SRW Wheat down 742 contracts, HRW Wheat down 840, Corn up 14,675, Soybeans down 4,992, Soymeal up 3,961, Soyoil up 9,010.

 

Northern Plains: A front is moving in on Thursday with isolated showers that could last into Saturday. Another pulse of isolated showers is possible early next week. Temperatures should generally be near or above normal into next week. Conditions are still good for harvest, though breezy winds at times could be a concern for wildfires in the dry conditions. 

Central/Southern Plains: Increasing winds is bringing in warm air Thursday and Friday, but could be a concern for spreading wildfires. A front and system will move in on Friday and finally bring some showers into the region, which could last through Monday with the heaviest rain in the southwest. Winter wheat and livestock producers would welcome the rain and models have some spotty areas of 1-2 inches being possible. 

Midwest: Cold air is being replaced by warmer air from west to east over the next two days. Another front will move into western areas on Friday or Saturday, but is forecast to produce very little rainfall and fizzle out before getting eastward. We could see a burst of isolated showers moving through the region early next week, but that appears to be it until next weekend. Conditions for harvest are still generally favorable, though areas that plant winter wheat would like to see more rain. 

Delta/Lower Mississippi River: River levels on the Mississippi have become very low again, causing restrictions on transportation. With very little precipitation forecast in the basin for the next two weeks, restrictions could last a long time. 

Brazil: Wet season showers continue in central Brazil. The late start has caused soybean planting to be behind significantly. We will have to see if producers can make up the gap in soybean planting or if there will be a significant portion of the crop that is planted late. They have about two weeks. If it is late, the safrinha corn crop will be planted late as well, exposing more of it to the dry season in 2025. Southern Brazil has had much better weather for corn and soybean planting as well as for the remaining filling wheat. 

Argentina: The weather pattern is more active across Argentina with recent and forecast rain. Another burst moves exits Thursday which had good coverage, bringing needed rain for corn planting and drought-stricken wheat. Another potential widespread rain event will move through early-to-mid next week. Soybean planting doesn’t begin until November, but there could be issues with that if drought is not significantly reduced over the next couple of weeks. 

Europe: Another big storm continues to send more impulses into Europe the next few days with batches of rain that are heavier across the west and very dry in the east. Rainfall in the northwest has been a hindrance to corn harvest and wheat planting. Rainfall elsewhere has been more beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment and the drier conditions in the east will allow some areas to recover from the wetness. Italy and the west are favored with additional rainfall next week, though chances are not as great as they were this week. 

Black Sea: Isolated showers may continue in eastern Ukraine and western Russia into the weekend with a system that has stalled out over the Black Sea. However, the drought situation continues to be very bad across the east despite the incoming rain. With colder air moving into the region, frosts are starting to become more common and closing the window on the potential for good root establishment before winter. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall. 

Australia: A system moving through Thursday and Friday is spreading rain across needed areas in the south, but it will be drier next week. Some areas of dryness are seeing improvements while others fall behind in rainfall, making for mixed conditions for filling wheat and canola.

The player sheet for Oct. 17 had funds: net buyers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,500 corn, buyers of 6,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 4,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed private sales of 197,180 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico and 101,000 tons to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• CORN SALE: South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Wednesday without an international tender being issued
• CORN SALE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States or South America in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender
• WHEAT SALE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 78,200 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender on Thursday
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from Brazil in an international tender on Friday.
• CORN, BARLEY TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 35,000 metric tons of feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley. 

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Friday for week ending Oct. 10.

• Corn est. range 1,200k – 2,200k tons, with avg of 1,663k
• Soybean est. range 1,000k – 2,200k tons, with avg of 1,488k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.5% to 22.275M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.331 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.042m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.046m

 

Argentina Rains Are Helping Crops, Grains Exchange Says

Rains in recent days have unlocked corn planting, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in a weekly report.

• Precipitation is also driving a recovery of wheat plants
• More showers forecast would continue to improve the condition of wheat

 

Argentine Corn Production Estimate Oct. 17: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2024-25 corn planting area unchanged at 6.3m ha
• Corn planting advances to 24.3% complete from 18.6%

 

IGC Slightly Raises 2024 Global Grain Stockpile Forecasts

Global grain stockpiles are seen minimally higher at 584 million tons, up from a September estimate of 581 million tons, the International Grains Council said Thursday.

• Corn, soybean and rice ending stock predictions were all raised
  • Soybean and rice production seen higher
• Wheat stockpiles forecasts were little changed at 266m tons
  • Cuts to Australia, Argentina, EU and Russia production were offset by gains elsewhere
• Total grain production seen steady at 2.32b tons

 

Malaysia Sees Lower Palm Oil Prices in 2025 on Higher Production

Palm oil prices are forecast to average 3,500 ringgit to 4,000 ringgit/ton next year due to better global production, according to Malaysian finance ministry reports released with the nation’s 2025 spending plan.

• Higher global output of soybean oil and steady demand for palm oil are anticipated to contribute to price stabilization
• That compares with a projected 3,800 ringgit to 4,300 ringgit/ton this year due to constraints in global supply
• Malaysian production is expected to increase this year, but dry weather and aging trees due to low replanting rates will limit gains
  • Lower yield of fresh fruit bunches, expected to be seen in 4Q, forecast to impact production in 2H
• Malaysia’s overall agriculture sector may grow 1.9% in 2025, supported by all sub-sectors except forestry and logging
  • Palm oil to increase at a modest pace on high production and larger harvestable areas, favorable weather and better labor market
• Rubber may also grow on higher output and stable prices

 

Russia Bans Some Kazakh Food Imports, Allows Transit: Tass

Russia’s agricultural watchdog has imposed temporary restrictions on imports of wheat, lentils, tomatoes, peppers and melons from Kazakhstan starting from Oct. 17, Tass reports.

• There is an exception for the transit of these products, including wheat, from Kazakhstan
• NOTE: On Oct. 4, Russian watchdog requested to suspend melon imports from Kazakhstan due to the detection of a fly

 

Russia Seeks Grain Sales to 13 Nations Without Foreign Traders

Russian Union of Grain Exporters named 13 countries where it seeks to supply grain without foreign traders and intermediaries, according to statement on Telegram.

• Countries are Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Qatar, Kuwait, South Korea, Pakistan, India and Iraq, Interfax reports, citing Eduard Zernin, head of union
  • Decision applies to all deals concluded from Oct. 11.
  • Deals concluded before this date will be executed in full, Zernin says

 

Australia’s 2024-25 Wheat Output Set to Climb 18% Y/y, CBA Says

The country’s 2024-25 wheat production is expected to increase 18% y/y after favorable rainfall in New South Wales and Western Australia, according to a report from Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

• Output is expected to climb to 30.62 million tons, Dennis Voznesenski, an agricultural economist at the bank, wrote in the report
• Overall winter crop production, including barley and canola, is forecast at 53.04 million tons, +13% y/y
• Other 2024-25 output forecasts:
  • Barley: 11.37 million tons, +5%
  • Canola: 6 million tons, +1.2%
  • Oats: 1.14 million tons, +11%
  • Pulses: 3.9 million tons, +15%
• However, Victoria and South Australia have been impacted by unfavorable weather, including frost, hail and dry conditions
• Australia’s weather bureau is also forecasting a high chance of exceeding median rainfall on the east coast during harvest, which may lead to quality downgrades

 

Western Australia’s Wheat Output Seen Higher After Rain: GIWA

The outlook for Western Australia’s 2024 grain production has improved after rain in early October, according to a monthly report from an industry group, which raised its forecast for wheat output.

• The state is expected to produce 9.91 million tons of wheat, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia said, compared with a September forecast of 9.3 million tons
• Estimated tonnage could still climb if the current conditions continue for another week to ten days
• Wheat crops that emerged late due to lack of autumn rain benefited most from recent rainfall
• NOTE: The state is Australia’s biggest wheat producer
• Overall grain output is forecast at 17.75 million tons, up from a September estimate of 16.86 million tons
• Other GIWA crop estimates from the October report:
  • Barley: 4.32 million tons, compared with 4.72 million in September
  • Canola: 2.36 million tons, up from 2.22 million
  • Oats: 590,000 tons, up from 555,000 tons

 

French Corn Harvest 13% Done vs 5-Year Average of 55%: AgriMer

Some 13% of the corn crop was harvested as of Monday, slightly up from the previous week but still lagging well behind the five-year average of 55%, FranceAgriMer said on its website.

• About 10% of the French soft-wheat crop was planted as of Monday, compared with a five-year average of 27%
• 20% of the winter-barley crop was planted, compared with a five-year average of 42%
• Some 78% of French corn was in good or very good condition, steady from previous week; That compares with 83% a year earlier

 

Ukraine exports 40mn tonnes of grain as shipment rate doubles

Ukraine is on track to export around 40mn tonnes of grain this season, with shipment rates doubling compared to the previous year, according to Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotskyi.

‘Due to difficult climate conditions, this year’s harvest is smaller than last year’s, and there are no transitional residues from the previous period,’ Vysotskyi said. ‘Grain exports are estimated at 40mn tonnes, not a record volume, but we are confident that our infrastructure, including the Danube region, land railways, roads and the sea corridor, will facilitate this.’

Since the beginning of the 2024-2025 season, Ukraine has exported 12.04mn tonnes of grain and leguminous crops, with 1.593mn tonnes shipped in October alone. This is a significant increase from the same period last year, when total exports stood at 6.676mn tonnes, with just 7,000 tonnes exported in October.

The increase comes amid tensions with Polish farmers, who have threatened to block the Medica border crossing in protest against Ukrainian grain imports. Vysotskyi confirmed that discussions are ongoing to prevent such actions from materialising.

 

China’s pork output logs third year-on-year quarterly decline

• Q3 pork output falls to 12.59 million metric tons
• Meat demand weakens as shoppers rein in spending
• Slow demand caps hog price rally even as supply tightens

China’s pork production in the third quarter fell 0.8% from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, falling on an annual basis for a third consecutive quarter as poor meat consumption hampered slaughter rates.

Output during June-September in the world’s top pork producing nation declined to 12.59 million metric tons, a Reuters calculation based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

Meat demand has slowed in China, which consumes about half of the world’s pork, with shoppers tightening their belts to cope with a sluggish economy.

“Supply pressure still exists in the market with no obvious improvement in demand … supply and demand is at a stalemate,” Beijing-based agribusiness consultancy Boyar said.

For the first nine months of the year, production fell 1.4% to 42.4 million tons.

Farmers slaughtered 520.3 million hogs during the first nine-months of the year, down 3.2% from a year earlier, the data showed.

China’s pig herd size at the end of September was down 3.5% from the previous year to 426.94 million heads, the NBS data showed.

The shrinking herd size is in line with a government target to overcome an overcapacity of hogs that has depressed pork prices in recent years.

Some livestock companies turned profitable during the third quarter after three years of losses, as destocking and cost-cutting efforts helped hog prices recover, but weak demand capped the rally.

Cash hog prices fell to around a four-month low of 17.17 yuan ($2.41) per kg on Friday, after rising to 21 yuan ($2.95) in August, according to data from consultancy MySteel.

The sow herd at the end of August was down 4.8% at 40.36 million, separate data from China’s agriculture ministry showed.

 

Rising La Nina to deepen US Plains drought, NOAA says

A developing La Nina is expected to bring warmer- and drier-than-normal weather to the central and southern U.S. Plains this winter, likely worsening a drought in the country’s top winter wheat-producing area, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Thursday.

U.S. farmers are currently planting winter wheat that they aim to harvest early next summer amid an expanding drought that has raised concerns about harvest prospects and elevated prices recently to 3-1/2-month peaks.

Dryness in the Plains and other key wheat areas around the world, including top-exporter Russia, is expected to thin global supplies of the staple crop to the lowest in nine years, according to the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast. The United States is the world’s fifth largest wheat exporter.

“We anticipate widespread moderate to extreme drought will persist across much of the Great Plains and portions of the central Rocky Mountains,” Jon Gottschalck, operational prediction branch chief at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said as the agency released its winter weather outlook.

Drought expanded this week to encompass 52% of U.S. winter wheat areas, up from 44% two weeks ago, according to National Drought Mitigation Center data.

While the Plains are likely to remain dry, a wetter pattern in the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley regions should help boost Mississippi River water levels later this winter, NOAA said.

Such a rise could aid barge shipping in the biggest U.S. grains export corridor after historically low water disrupted crop movement for a third straight harvest season this year.

“That will be very helpful for the Mississippi River as a whole because a large fraction of that (water) comes from the Ohio River and the central Mississippi River Valley,” Gottschalck said.

The Mississippi River at Memphis, Tennessee, is forecast to recede by the end of this month to within less than three feet of an all-time low set a year ago, according to NOAA data.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 568k tons in the week ending Oct. 12 from 370k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 12.6% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 122.4% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $27.25 per short ton, a decline of $3.95 from the previous week

 

 

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.