Global Ag News for Oct 16.24

TOP HEADLINES

NOPA September US soybean crush up sharply to 177.320 mln bushels

The U.S. soybean crush topped all trade estimates in September in a strong rebound from a near-three-year low the previous month, while soyoil stocks fell to the lowest point in almost a decade, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Tuesday.

NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 177.320 million bushels of the oilseed last month, a record amount for September. That was up 12.2% from the 158.008 million bushels crushed in August and up 7.2% from the September 2023 crush of 165.456 million bushels, which was the previous record for the month.

The crush exceeded all trade estimates and was well above the average estimate of 170.331 million bushels, based on a Reuters survey of 10 analysts. Estimates ranged from 164.000 million to 177.000 million bushels, with a median of 170.400 million bushels.

Analysts had expected the September crush to rebound from a 35-month low in August, when more processing plants than expected idled facilities for seasonal pre-harvest repairs and maintenance.

The crush is expected to surge in coming months as a record-large U.S. soybean harvest floods the market.

Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of Sept. 30 dropped for a sixth straight month to 1.066 billion pounds, the tightest end-of-month supply since November 2014. The stocks were down 6.3% from the 1.138 billion pounds on hand at the end of August and 3.8% below year-ago stocks of 1.108 billion pounds.

Analysts, on average, had expected stocks to decline to 1.083 billion pounds, according to estimates from seven analysts.

Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 865 million to 1.200 billion lbs, with a median of 1.100 billion lbs.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, up 1 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 6 1/2; Soymeal up $2.50; Soyoil up 0.27.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 23 1/4 in SRW, down 24 1/2 in HRW, down 26 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 13; Soybeans down 8; Soymeal down $0.80; Soyoil down 0.61.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 8 1/2 in SRW, down 3 3/4 in HRW, down 4 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 22; Soybeans down 59 1/2; Soymeal down $27.30; Soyoil down 0.59.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.4% in SRW, down 9.7% in HRW, down 14.7% in HRS; Corn is down 14.5%; Soybeans down 22.9%; Soymeal down 18.6%; Soyoil down 10.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans down 35 yuan; Soymeal up 1; Soyoil up 70; Palm oil up 92; Corn down 14 — Malaysian Palm is up 63.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 63 ringgit (+1.47%) at 4335.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 232 Soybeans; 402 Soyoil; 226 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 15 were: SRW Wheat up 3,655 contracts, HRW Wheat up 5,373, Corn up 24,035, Soybeans up 19,596, Soymeal up 7,230, Soyoil down 5,214.

 

Brazil: Wet season showers arrived in central Brazil late last week, which continue now for the season. The late start has caused soybean planting to be behind significantly. We will have to see if producers can make up the gap in soybean planting or if there will be a significant portion of the crop that is planted late. They have about two weeks. If it is late, the safrinha corn crop will be planted late as well, exposing more of it to the dry season in 2025. Southern Brazil has had much better weather for corn and soybean planting as well as for the remaining filling wheat. 

Argentina: The weather pattern is becoming more active across Argentina. Some rain started to move back in on Friday, another burst is moving through Tuesday, and another moves through Wednesday and Thursday, bringing needed rain for corn planting and drought-stricken wheat. More rain is needed, but the forecast is a favorable one for now with another potential widespread rain event in the middle of next week. Soybean planting doesn’t begin until November, but there could be issues with that if drought is not significantly reduced over the next couple of weeks. 

Northern Plains: A front will move in on Thursday with isolated showers that could last into Saturday. Another pulse of isolated showers is possible early next week. Temperatures should generally be near or above normal into next week, with some potential for cold moving in by the middle of next week. Conditions are still good for harvest, though breezy winds at times could be a concern for wildfires in the dry conditions. 

Central/Southern Plains: Though a burst of chilly air is moving in early this week, it will be short-lived with warmth returning Wednesday night. A front and system will move in on Friday and finally bring some showers into the region, which could last through Monday. Winter wheat and livestock producers would welcome the rain, but it doesn’t look heavy enough to combat much of the drought, or be much of a concern for the continued harvest. 

Midwest: Cold air moving into the region will be slow to move out from west to east later this week, and also contribute to some additional showers near the Great Lakes. Another front will move into western areas on Friday or Saturday, but is forecast to produce very little rainfall, and fizzle out before getting eastward. We could see a burst of isolated showers moving through the region early next week, though. Conditions for harvest are still generally favorable, though areas that plant winter wheat would like to see more rainfall. 

Europe: Another big storm is sending more impulses into Europe this week with batches of rain that are forecast to be heavier across the west and very dry in the east. Rainfall in the northwest has been a hindrance to corn harvest and wheat planting. Rainfall elsewhere has been more beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment and the drier conditions in the east will allow some areas to recover from the wetness.

 

The player sheet for Oct. 15 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 19,000 corn, sellers of 6,000 soybeans, sellers of 5,500 soymeal, and buyers of 5,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 131,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT SALE: The USDA also confirmed private sales of 120,000 metric tons of U.S. soft red winter wheat for delivery to Mexico in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• SUNFLOWER OIL PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer GASC is believed to have bought 50,000 metric tons of sunflower oil in an international purchasing tender at $1,185 per ton, traders say. GASC did not buy soybean oil, according to traders. Reports reflect assessments from traders and further estimates of prices and volumes are still possible later.
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from either the United States, South America or South Africa.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat on Tuesday.

 PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn 47% Harvested, Soybeans 67% Harvested

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 64% G/E vs 64% last week, and 53% a year ago
• Corn harvest 47% vs 30% last week, and 42% a year ago
• Soybeans harvested 67% vs 47% last week, and 57% a year ago
• Winter wheat planted 64% vs 51% last week, and 65% a year ago
• Cotton 34% G/E vs 29% last week, and 30% a year ago
• Cotton harvested 34% vs 26% last week, and 31% a year ago

 

US Inspected 430k Tons of Corn for Export, 1.575m of Soybeans

In week ending Oct. 10, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 430k tons vs 948k the previous wk, 467k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 1,575k tons vs 1,625k the previous wk, 2,110k a yr ago
• Wheat: 371k tons vs 363k the previous wk, 356k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Oct. 10

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Oct. 10 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 1.07m tons of the 1.58m total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

Russia Grain Union Sets Wheat-Export Price Indicator at $240

Russia’s union of grain exporters set its “consensus indicator” for wheat-export prices at $240 per ton in October, it said on Telegram.

• It’s the first time the group has made a public notification of such indicators
• It set the “consensus” indicator at $245 for November and $250 for December for wheat with 12.5% protein on a FOB Novorossiysk basis
• Sees a $5 discount for 11.5% protein and a $15 discount for 10.5% protein wheat
• Union said that it had conducted a survey in order to come up with the price indicator

 

Russia Wheat Regions See Drought Easing as Crop Impacts Linger

Rains over Russia’s wheat growing regions will help ease dry conditions, but crop stress continues for the world’s top grower of the grain, according to weather forecasters.

• “Rains will improve moisture a bit in Central Region and North Caucasus this week,” Maxar Technologies Inc. said in a note
• Rostov region in southern Russia will likely see scattered showers bringing 10-20mm of rain by Oct. 20, Aura Commodities meteorologist Jack Wade said by email. “Critically, this is not likely to be enough to overturn challenging planting conditions”
  • Says region has seen just 6% of typical rain accumulation since Sept. 12
  • Province is responsible for about 22% of Russian winter wheat production: Wade
• Wheat stress to persist in at least 40% Russia after 1-5 days, Commodity Weather Group said in a note
• NOTE: Russian farmers are in the midst of planting winter-wheat, which accounts for the majority of its annual harvest; seeding in September had been delayed due to the dryness

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 4.34 Million Tns In October – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 4.34 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 4.12 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED LAST WEEK- ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.47 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 2.28 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED LAST WEEK- ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.22 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 5.68 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED LAST WEEK – ANEC

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 29% Y/y in Season to Oct. 13

EU soft wheat exports in the season that started July 1 totaled 6.64m tons as of Oct. 13, compared with 9.3m tons a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include Nigeria with about 991k tons, Egypt with 692k tons and Morocco with 503k tons
• Barley exports were 1.55m tons, down 37% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 5.7m tons, up 6% y/y
• NOTE: Click here for figures on oilseed trade
• NOTE: Export data for Italy are not complete for the last five weeks, according to the commission; export data for France aren’t complete since the beginning of the 2024 calendar year; export data for Bulgaria and Ireland aren’t complete since the start of the 2023-24 season

 

UK 2024 Wheat, Oilseed Crop Seen Falling on Weather Disruptions

Wheat and rapeseed production in the UK is seen falling significantly in 2024, making the country “much more reliant on imports than usual this season,”according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board’s estimates.

• UK wheat production is estimated at 11.1m tons, down from 14m tons last season
  • That’s 21% below the five-year average
• Barley production forecast at 7.2m tons, up from 6.9m tons the year before
  • Output is seen remaining below the five-year average
  • Production was dominated by spring barley
• Rapeseed production is estimated to be 837k tons, the lowest since 1983
  • That’s down from 1.22m tons harvested in 2023 and the five-year average of 1.27m tons

 

India Raises Minimum Purchase Prices of Winter-Sown Crops

The government increased the minimum support price of wheat, India’s biggest winter-sown food grain crop, to 2,425 rupees per 100 kilograms for the 2024-25 growing season from 2,275 rupees a year earlier, according to the farm ministry.

• The cost of production is estimated at 1,182 rupees, the ministry said in a statement Wednesday after a cabinet meeting
• Support price of rapeseed raised to 5,950 rupees/100kg from 5,650 rupees a year earlier
  • That compares with the cost of production of 3,011 rupees
• Minimum price of gram increased to 5,650 rupees from 5,440 rupees
  • Cost of production is 3,527 rupees
• Support price for lentils raised to 6,700 rupees from 6,425 rupees
  • Cost of production is 3,537 rupees
• Price of barley increased to 1,980 rupees from 1,850 rupees
  • Cost of production is 1,239 rupees
• The cabinet also approved a plan to spend 26.4 billion rupees to build rail and road bridges on river Ganges, Information and Broadcasting Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw told reporters in New Delhi

 

Malaysia Keeps Crude Palm Oil Export Tax at 8% in November

The gazetted price for crude palm oil is seen at 3,949.73 ringgit a ton, which incurs the maximum export tax of 8%, according to a circular from the customs department posted on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s website.

• NOTE: Tax has been kept at 8% since January 2021, following government exemption in July-December 2020
• NOTE: Export duty structure starts at 3% when FOB prices for CPO are in the 2,250-2,400 ringgit per ton range
• Maximum tax rate is 8% when prices are above 3,450 ringgit per ton

 

 

 

 

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