Global Ag News for Oct 14.24

TOP HEADLINES

French Corn Harvest Slowest in 11 Years After Deluge of Rain

• Only about 6% cut so far amid wettest September, hurricane
• Wine production also expected to plummet because of weather

France’s corn harvest is progressing at the slowest pace in 11 years as adverse weather takes a huge toll on Europe’s top agricultural producer.

Only about 6% of the crop was cut as of Oct. 7, compared with 50% a year earlier, according to FranceAgriMer data. It’s the most sluggish pace since 2013.

France produces about 15 million tons annually — the most in Europe — and exports 40% of that, primarily to its neighbors, according to industry group Intercereales. Corn generates a €1 billion ($1.1 billion) trade surplus.

The harvest may be hindered even more by the remnants of Hurricane Kirk, which brought heavy rains and floods to northern areas. Fields already were saturated from the wettest September in 25 years.

Bad weather this year has also damaged other crops. Soft-wheat and winter-barley planting are below the five-year average, and wine production is expected to drop 22%

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/2 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, down 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans down 4 1/2; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil down 0.70.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 5 in SRW, down 1 1/2 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 12 1/2; Soybeans down 33; Soymeal down $8.80; Soyoil down 1.94.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 13 1/2 in SRW, up 18 1/4 in HRW, up 21 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 11 1/4; Soybeans down 56; Soymeal down $26.40; Soyoil down 0.68.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.9% in SRW, down 6.3% in HRW, down 11.1% in HRS; Corn is down 12.3%; Soybeans down 22.6%; Soymeal down 18.0%; Soyoil down 9.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans down 2 yuan; Soymeal down 17; Soyoil down 4; Palm oil up 96; Corn up 14 — Malaysian Palm is down 36.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 36 ringgit (-0.83%) at 4314.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 232 Soybeans; 402 Soyoil; 176 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 11 were: SRW Wheat up 4,135 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,066, Corn up 5,255, Soybeans up 17,499, Soymeal up 1,045, Soyoil up 2,210.

 

Northern Plains: It was dry over the weekend. A front will move in on Thursday with isolated showers that could last into the weekend. Another surge of isolated showers are possible early next week. Temperatures should generally be near or above normal into next week, with some potential for cold moving in by the middle of next week. Conditions are still good for harvest, though breezy winds at times could be a concern for wildfires in the dry conditions. 

Central/Southern Plains: Though a burst of chilly air is moving in early this week, it will be short-lived with warmth returning midweek. A system will move in on Friday and finally bring some showers into the region, which could last through Monday in some areas. Winter wheat and livestock producers would welcome the rain, but it doesn’t look heavy enough to combat much of the drought, or be a concern for the continued harvest. 

Midwest: A front moved through this weekend and brought some better-than-forecast rainfall for some areas. Cold air moving into the region will be slow to move out from west to east later this week, and also contribute to some additional showers near the Great Lakes. Another front will move into western areas on Friday or Saturday, but is forecast to produce very little rainfall, and fizzle out before getting eastward. Conditions for harvest are still generally favorable, though areas that plant winter wheat would like to see more rainfall in some areas. 

Delta: Continued dry conditions over the weekend have sent river levels on the Mississippi very low, which will cause restrictions on transportation. With very little precipitation forecast in the basin, restrictions could last a long time. 

Brazil: Wet season showers arrived in central Brazil late last week, which continue now for the season. The late start has caused soybean planting to be behind significantly, though producers apparently tried to play catch up prior to the rains moving in. We will have to see if producers can make up the gap in soybean planting or if there will be a significant portion of the crop that is planted late. If it is late, the safrinha corn crop will be planted late as well, exposing more of it to the dry season in 2025. Southern Brazil has had much better weather for corn and soybean planting as well as for filling wheat. 

Argentina: The weather pattern is becoming more active across Argentina. Some rain started to move back in on Friday, another burst will move through Monday and Tuesday, and another moves through Wednesday and Thursday, bringing needed rain for corn planting and drought-stricken wheat. More rain is needed, but the forecast is a favorable one for now. Soybean planting doesn’t begin until November, but there could be issues with that if drought is not significantly reduced over the next couple of weeks. 

Europe: A system moved through with more showers over the weekend. Another big storm will send more impulses into Europe with batches of rain that are forecast to be heavier across the west. Rainfall in the northwest has been a hindrance to corn harvest and wheat planting. Rainfall elsewhere has been more beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment. 

Black Sea: A system brought another band of heavy rain into central Ukraine over the weekend that is moving through eastern Ukraine and western Russia with lighter, but still widespread rainfall that continues into Wednesday. However, the drought situation continues to be very bad across the east despite the incoming rain. With colder air moving into the region, frosts are starting to become more common and closing the window on the potential for good root establishment in the region. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall.

Australia: Isolated showers fell over parts of the region this weekend, but most areas stayed dry. A couple of fronts and systems will move through this week with potential for rain, which will be useful for areas that get hit. Areas that get missed in the south would fall further behind.

 

The player sheet for Oct. 11 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 8,500 corn, sellers of 8,000 soybeans, sellers of 6,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL PURCHASES: South Korea’s Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) and Major Feedmill Group (MFG) each purchased about 60,000 metric tons of soymeal.
• RUSSIAN WHEAT EXPORTS: Russia’s agriculture ministry asked exporters not to sell wheat by tender to international buyers below a minimum price of $250 per metric ton on a free-on-board basis, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. Russia earlier announced a 41% increase in its wheat export duty.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

China September Imports: Customs

General Administration of Customs says on website.

• Soybean Imports in Sept. 11.371m Tons
  • Soybean imports YTD rose 8.1% y/y to 81.849m tons
• Edible vegetable oil imports in Sept. 627,000 tons
  • Edible vegetable oil imports YTD fell 24.1% y/y to 5.391m tons
• Meat (including offal) imports in Sept. 541,000 tons
  • Meat (including offal) imports YTD fell 13.4% y/y to 4.94m tons
• Fertilizer exports in Sept. 3.235m tons
  • Fertilizer exports YTD rose 1.3% y/y to 22.947m tons

 

Brazil Farmers Plant 9.3% Of 2024/2025 Expected Soybean Area Versus 17.4% At This Time Last Year – Patria Agronegocios

BRAZIL FARMERS PLANT 9.3% OF 2024/2025 EXPECTED SOYBEAN AREA VERSUS 17.4% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Rainfall forecast brings positive expectations; liquidity is low

Forecasts of rainfall in important soy producing areas in Brazil have brought good expectations for players, especially due to the limited pace of planting activities of the 2024/25 crop.

Liquidity, in turn, is low, and part of the demand is allocated to the soybean from the United States. The industry in Brazil is currently away from closing trades of large amounts, expecting that the possible improvement of weather conditions favors the planting of the new season, pressing quotations down.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) moved down 0.6% from October 3-10, closing at BRL 141.38 per 60-kg bag. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) dropped 0.3% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 139.35 per 60-kg bag on Oct. 10.

On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices decreased 1.1% from Oct. 3-10 in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers), but upped 0.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). The dollar rose 2% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.585 on October 10.

CROPS – Conab indicates that planting activities reached 5.1% in Brazil up to Oct. 6.

BYPRODUCTS – On the average of regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean meal prices dropped 0.9% from Oct. 3-10. The low demand explains the decrease. As for soy oil, on the other hand, quotations increased 1.1% between Oct. 3 and 10, at BRL 6,639.60 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on Oct. 10. In this case, it is the firm domestic demand that boosted values.

EXPORTS – Secex indicates that 6.1 million tons of soybeans were shipped in September, 24% less than in August, 4.5% down compared to September/23 and the smallest volume since January this year. Still, from January to September 2024, exports totaled 89.54 million tons, 2.6% more than in the same period last year and a record.

As for soybean meal shipments, the decrease from August to September was 15.22%, totaling 1.75 million tons. Concerning soy oil, exports amounted 81.16 thousand tons last month, downing 23.2% compared to August – data from Secex.

 

Russia Sets Price Floor for Wheat at International Tenders: Rtrs

Russia’s agriculture ministry asked exporters not to sell wheat by tender to international buyers below a minimum price at a closed-door meeting Friday, Reuters reports, citing two unidentified people with direct knowledge of the matter.

• The recommendation introduces a de-facto price floor of $250 per metric ton on a free-on-board basis for wheat from Russia, according to the report

 

SovEcon Cuts Russian Wheat Production Forecast to 81.5m Tons

Consultant SovEcon trimmed its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop in the 2024 season to 81.5m tons from a previous estimate of 82.9m tons, it said in an email.

• Reduction driven by a marked decline in yields toward the end of the harvest in several Siberian regions
• Barley production was also revised down, to 16.5m tons from 17.2m tons on Siberian yields
• Corn forecast was increased to 12.2m tons from 11.7m tons, reflecting relatively strong yields in the Central and Volga regions
• Total grain and legume harvest was cut to 122.9m tons from the 124.4m tons forecast last month
• That would be the lowest total harvest since 2021

 

Russia’s Grain Exporters Want Foreign Traders Out of Its Market

Russia’s union of grain exporters called for foreign traders and intermediaries to be ousted from the country’s export sales, as Moscow continues to try and tighten its grip on flows.

“The Union of Grain Exporters does not see the economic feasibility of attracting foreign traders and assorted intermediaries to supply Russian grain to international customers,” the group said on Telegram, adding that it had the support of the country’s agriculture ministry in its efforts. The ministry didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment.

While major Western merchants stopped originating grain for export in Russia after facing government pressure in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, the traders can still buy cargoes of Russian grain from other firms. Those transactions still typically occur at large volumes.

The Russian grain industry has grown increasingly consolidated after Western merchants pulled back and as the country’s top private trader faced a spat with the state. That put the market in the hands of fewer companies, some of which have or had links to the Kremlin.

Top Supplier

Russia is the world’s biggest wheat exporter and any disruptions to its export flows would boost costs of the staple grain for buyers from Africa to Asia. Wheat also remains a major source of export revenue and political influence for the nation in the midst of its invasion of Ukraine, as food isn’t directly sanctioned.

The union said that exporters had agreed not to provide Russian grain to foreign winners of tenders, during a meeting on the sidelines of the Golden Autumn exhibition in Moscow this week. It also criticized new exporters for “dumping” of grain and said that such practices must be eradicated.

While wheat supplies in the country remain large, farmers reaped a smaller harvest this year amid frost and dry weather, breaking a streak of bumper production. Russia normally limits exports in the latter part of the season from February to June, with allowances allocated based on the volume traders exported in the first half. Quotas have not been restrictive in recent seasons.

Still, Moscow’s exports at the start of the season have matched last year’s record volumes, which was expected to restrain shipments later on.

 

APK-Inform cuts Ukraine 2024 grain export forecast amid smaller corn output

Analyst APK-Inform has lowered its Ukraine 2024/25 July-June grain export forecast to 37.2 million metric tons from 39.1 million tons, mostly due to a smaller-than-expected corn harvest and exports, the consultancy said on Monday.

The country’s corn export outlook was revised down sharply to 20 million tons from 22.5 million tons as the corn harvest was expected to fall to 24 million tons from 26.8 million, it said.

APK-Inform slightly raised Ukraine’s 2024 wheat harvest outlook to 21.5 million tons from 21.2 million tons, and exports to 14.4 million tons from 13.8 million tons.

 

Mosaic says fertilizer waste facility’s water entered Tampa Bay after Hurricane Milton

Mosaic Co said on Friday that water supporting the chemical company’s storage of a waste byproduct from fertilizer manufacturing in Florida probably made its way into Tampa Bay following a downpour from Hurricane Milton.

The discharge of possibly more than 17,500 gallons from Mosaic’s facility in Riverview, a fast-growing Tampa suburb, raised potential environmental concerns.

The industrial byproduct, phosphogypsum, is known to emit radon, a cancer-causing radioactive gas.

Mosaic said a storage system for water around a pile of phosphogypsum became overwhelmed in Riverview. The site received nearly 15 inches of rain during Hurricane Milton less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene, the company said in a statement.

Water quality impacts in Tampa Bay are expected to be “modest,” if any, Mosaic said.

The company addressed the overflow issue on Thursday and it was not continuing on Friday, it said in the statement. “We’ve been in constant communication with regulators who are onsite today.”

The affected phosphogypsum pile is closed, meaning the company is not adding new material to it, Mosaic said. Phosphogypsum contains radium, which decays to form radon gas, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said, noting that radium and radon are radioactive and can cause cancer.

The EPA requires that phosphogypsum be managed in engineered piles or stacks to limit public exposure from radon emissions. The EPA told Reuters the Florida Department of Environmental Protection regulates the design, construction, operation and maintenance of phosphogypsum stack systems and they must continue to comply with all regulatory requirements. The Florida Department of Environmental Protection had no immediate comment.

Mosaic, which mines phosphate rock in Florida and produces about three-quarters of North America’s phosphate fertilizers, said it idled Florida operations in anticipation of Milton.

 

Vietnam, China sign 10 deals including agri trade to payment as leaders meet

Vietnam and China signed 10 agreements ranging from agriculture cooperation to cross-border QR code payments on Sunday, during Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s three-day visit to Hanoi, as the two neighbours seek to boost ties.

China is Vietnam’s largest trading partner and a vital source of imports for its manufacturing sector, with bilateral trade jumping 21% for the first three quarters from the same period last year to $148 billion.

The signing ceremony followed Li’s meeting with Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh. Li and Vietnam’s Communist Party chief, President To Lam, agreed on Saturday to boost economic ties, farm produce cooperation.

The Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh asked China to boost agricultural trade with Vietnam, open doors to Vietnamese farm produce and enhance customs clearance at borders, state broadcaster Vietnam Television (VTV) reported.

Vietnam and China also signed a document on updating progress on cross-border railway links related to site survey.

“The Vietnamese prime minister also suggested the two countries cooperate to implement signed documents on railway links, modern railway development effectively,” VTV reported.

The two Asian neighbours have repeatedly showed interest in boosting rail links but have not announced concrete plans or the estimated costs to upgrade connections.

The main route relies on tracks connecting Kunming in the southern Chinese province of Yunnan to Hanoi and the Vietnamese port city of Haiphong. That railway was built by the French during their colonisation of Vietnam more than a century ago and is still in use in Vietnam. China has replaced its route with high-speed connections.

On Saturday, the National Payment Corp of Vietnam and China’s UnionPay International signed an agreement to deploy cross-border payment between the two countries.

 

 

 

 

 

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