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Global Ag News for Nov 8th

 TODAY – EXPORT INSPECTIONS, CROP PROGRESS

Wheat prices overnight are up 6 1/4 in SRW, up 4 1/4 in HRW, up 4 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans up 1/4; Soymeal up $0.01; Soyoil up 0.42.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 24 1/2 in SRW, down 23 1/2 in HRW, down 61 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 25 1/4; Soybeans down 43 1/4; Soymeal up $0.36; Soyoil down 2.78.

For the month to date wheat prices are unchanged in SRW, down 2 3/4 in HRW, down 38 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 14 1/4; Soybeans down 43 3/4; Soymeal up $0.20; Soyoil down 2.07.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans down 88 yuan ; Soymeal down 16; Soyoil down 340; Palm oil down 382; Corn up 14 — Malasyian Palm is up 15. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 15 ringgit (+0.31%) at 4895 tracking losses in rival edible oils, as investors fretted about dwindling demand that could push up inventories in Malaysia.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 2 Corn; 1,318 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 5 were: SRW Wheat up 1,023 contracts, HRW Wheat up 152, Corn down 3,237, Soybeans up 6,863, Soymeal up 1,622, Soyoil down 1,776.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: io Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday, north Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday-Tuesday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers west Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers west Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday. East: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday, snow possible. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

The player sheet for Nov. 5 had funds: net sellers of 4,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 7,500 corn, sellers of 11,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • WHEAT TENDER PASSED: Pakistan is thought to have made no purchase in an import tender this week seeking around 90,000 tonnes of wheat, traders said. The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) also declined to make a purchase in its previous tender seeking the same volume

PENDING TENDERS        

  • WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
  • WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat

China Oct. Soybean Imports 5.109m Tons: Customs

  • Soybean imports YTD fell 5% y/y to 79.083m tons
  • Edible vegetable oil imports in Oct. 613,000 tons
    • Edible vegetable oil imports YTD rose 4.6% y/y to 8.9m tons
  • Meat (including offal) imports in Oct. 664,000 tons
    • Meat (including offal) imports YTD fell 1.5% y/y to 8.047m tons

Brazil Soybean Exports to China Rose 35% Y/y in October

According to data on the Brazilian Trade Ministry’s website.

  • Oct. exports to China rose to 2.66m tons from 1.97m tons a year ago
  • Jan.-Oct. exports to China down 5% y/y to 56.2m tons

Brazil 2021-22 Soy Output Forecast Raised to 144.7M Tons: Safras

Estimate means a 5.4%-growth y/y, consultancy firm Safras & Mercado says in an emailed statement.

  • This compares with an estimate of 142.2m tons on July
  • Safras indicates an increase of 4% in planted area, estimated at 40.5m hectares
  • In 2020/21, planting occupied 38.96m hectares
  • In the previous report, Safras indicated an area of ​​39.82m hectares

Sinograin Signs 8.4m-Ton Soy Purchase Deals During Import Expo

Affiliates of China state grains stockpiler Sinograin signed framework agreements Saturday with companies including U.S.-based Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge to buy a combined 8.4m tons of soybeans, state-asset regulator Sasac says in a statement.

  • The purchase value is about 20% higher than last year, Sasac says in a statement about China International Import Expo in Shanghai
  • Chinese food giant Cofco also signed agreements to buy more than $10b of farm products at the expo Saturday, Sasac says, without giving further details about the deals

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Current price level is the lowest since Jul/21; sowing pace is satisfactory

Despite the offseason in the Brazil, soybean prices are fading in the domestic market, currently at the lowest level since July/21, which is not typical for this time of the year. Pressure comes from farmers’ needs to make room in warehouses to receive the new crop, which may be a record and is expected to raise the inventory/consumption ratio. The weather has been favorable to soybean sowing in Brazil – in the major soybean-producing regions, activities are already ending.

With the higher interest of purchasers in sales in the last weeks, the export premiums dropped in Brazil, despite international devaluations. Besides, farmers extended the payment deadline (in some cases for the first quarter of 2022), aiming to increase liquidity in the national spot market.

CROPS – Activities are in full swing in the Brazilian soybean crops, favored by the weather. Agents consulted by Cepea have reported the end of sowing in western PR, northern and western MT and in the Mogiana (SP).

According to data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), until Oct. 30, soybean sowing had reached 53.5% of the area in Brazil. Among the states, 87.8% of the area in Mato Grosso has been sown; in Mato Grosso do Sul, 72%; in São Paulo, 65%; in Goiás and in Paraná, 60%; in Tocantins and in Minas Gerais, 40%; in Santa Catarina, 34.7%; in Bahia, 9%; and in Maranhão, Piauí and Rio Grande do Sul, 6%.

CORN/CEPEA: Influenced by the US dollar, price at ports is already higher than the Index

Corn prices are fading in most Brazilian regions, however, at the ports of Santos (SP) and Paranaguá (PR), values are firm. This scenario has been observed for some weeks, and this month, values at these ports have been higher than the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP).

Between Oct. 28 and Nov. 4, the corn Index decreased by 0.56%, to BRL 86.40 (USD 15.39)/60-kilo bag on Thursday, 4. On the other hand, at the ports of Santos and Paranaguá, prices increased by 0.3% and 1.9%, respectively, to BRL 87.37/bag and BRL 87.19/bag. Thus, values at ports have been almost 1 Real/bag higher than the Index, which had not been observed (at least at the port of Paranaguá) since October 2020.

CROPS – Brazilian corn farmers have been optimistic about the weather, which has been favoring the development of the 2021/22 summer crop. In Rio Grande do Sul, 79% of the state area had been sown until Nov. 4, a weekly advance of 3 percentage points, according to Emater/RS. In Paraná, sowing is ending, having reached 93% of the state area, according to information from Seab/Deral. In São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Goiás, activities had reached 63%, 30% and 18% of the respective areas, according to Conab.

In Mato Grosso, soybean sowing is taking place within the ideal period, which may favor activities in corn crops. According to Imea, 92% of the area allocated to corn is expected to be sown until the end of February/22, which may favor productivity. The output from MT has been estimated by Imea at 39.57 million tons, almost 7 million tons up from that in the 2020/21 season.

Russian Wheat Exports Flat Last Week, Down 13% Y/y: Agency

Wheat shipments for the 2021-22 season amounted to 15.9m tons as of Nov. 2, down 13% from a year earlier, the Federal Center of Quality and Safety Assurance for Grain and Grain Products said on its website, citing inspections before exports.

  • That means wheat exports totaled about 600k tons in the week to Nov. 2, or the same level as a week earlier
  • Exports of all grains are at 18.7m tons so far this season
    • Barley exports declined 30% y/y
    • Corn exports jumped 27% due to shipments to Turkey and Korea

Ukraine’s Wheat Exports Are Up 17% So Far This Season: Ministry

Ukraine’s wheat exports have reached 12.8m tons, the Agriculture Ministry says on its website.

  • Total grain exports are up 19% to 20.4m tons, and also include:
    • 4.5m tons of barley, up 34%;
    • 2.8m tons of corn, almost on par with last year

Canadian canola oil content well below average

Canada’s hot and dry growing season in 2021 cut into the oil content of the country’s canola crop, with preliminary data pointing to the second-lowest oil content of the past two decades.

Preliminary sample data compiled by the Canadian Grain Commission shows average oil content for number one quality canola in 2021/22 at 41.9 per cent. That compares with the 44.1 per cent recorded the previous year and the five-year average of 44.4 per cent. The last time the oil content dipped below 42 per cent was the 2003/04 crop that saw oil levels at only 41.8 per cent.

Korea to Import Urea from Vietnam; in Talks to Buy More

South Korea finalized importing 200 tons of urea for vehicles from Vietnam next week and will seek to buy more from Vietnam as well as other nations, according to a government statement.

  • South Korea is discussing importing ~10,000 tons of urea from various countries
  • South Korea to import 27,000 liters of urea water solution from Australia, more than initially announced 20,000 liters
  • South Korea will lower tariff on urea to zero from the current 5-6.5%, in order to accelerate imports
  • Vice Finance Minister Lee Eog-weon says government to closely monitor urea demand and supply trends and take all necessary measures

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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