Written Commentary
TODAY—ELECTION DAY—WEEKLY DELIVERABLE STOCKS
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 5 cents, HRW up 6; HRS Wheat up 4, Corn is up 3 cents; Soybeans up 11; Soymeal up $2.00, and Soyoil up 50 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 11 yuan in soybeans, down 32 in Corn, down 8 in Soymeal, up 94 in Soyoil, and up 48 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 94 ringgit at 3,069 (basis January) on improved exports.
South America Weather Forecast: The Brazilian growing regions has hit and miss, moderate rainfall amounts for 75% of the area over the next 6 to 10 days. Temps will be below average for the week ahead turning to average to a bit above by the end of the week/weekend. The Argentine growing regions continues with limited rainfall over the next 6 to 10 days with rainfall south and west of growing areas. Temps run below average.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 6,000 SRW Wheat; sold 4,000 Corn; sold 4,000 Soybeans; sold 3,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 2,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 41,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 216,000 Corn; net long 205,000 Soybeans; net long 78,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 87,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 3,100 contracts; HRW Wheat down 695; Corn down 935; Soybeans down 730 contracts; Soymeal down 1,100 lots, and; Soyoil down 475.
Deliveries were 118 for Soybeans.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1; Soybeans 521; Soyoil 1,907 lots; Soymeal 223; Rice 357; HRW Wheat 113, and; HRS 1,195.
Tender Activity—Jordan seeks 120,000t optional-origin wheat—
U.S. Winter wheat plantings 89% complete versus 86% average
U.S. Corn harvest 82% complete versus trade estimates of 83% (69% average)
U.S. Soybean harvest 87% complete versus trade estimates of 91% (83% average)
Wire story has slow progress in Ohio; mixed results after Kansas rains
Corn harvesting remained slow last week in Ohio, and much-needed rains in Kansas were helpful for parched wheat, though they were not as widespread as hoped. The U.S. Crop Watch growers are either finished or nearing completion on their personal harvests, mostly on schedule or ahead, and the unusually warm and dry weather expected this week will allow for increased fieldwork.
Midweek rains and very wet corn curbed activity in Ohio, but the favorable forecast for the next several days should make for a strong week of harvest. The Ohio producer expects to finish the subject corn field this week. Corn across Ohio was only 32% harvested a week ago, the slowest for the date since 2011 and well behind the recent average of 52%. That progress was also 2 points behind the same date in 2019, even after last year’s record-late corn planting efforts in the state.
Winter wheat ratings in top state Kansas were well below normal last week with just 29% of the state’s crop rated as good or excellent. That is the worst score for the time of year since 1991 and well off the week’s five-year average of 50%.
Conditions are likely to have improved over the last week after some much-needed rain, but the Kansas producer reports that rain amounts in his central location were a little less than half of what was expected. His fields received anywhere from sprinkles to 0.8 inch (20 mm) of rain, lifting overall crop health, though he thinks an excellent wheat harvest is completely off the table at this point.
The best rain was observed in the southernmost part of Kansas with up to 3 inches (76 mm), but at least half of the state’s wheat belt missed out on meaningful rains. Another potential moisture opportunity is in the forecast for a week from now, and that is going to be critical to improve spotty wheat emergence before winter dormancy.
The eight Crop Watch growers have rated yield potential each week on a scale from 1 to 5. Scores of 1 or 5 represent yields close to or exceeding 15% below or above average, while 2 and 4 reflect yields around 5% to 10% from average; the unweighted, eight-field soybean average landed at 3.66 versus 3.22 last year and 4.06 in 2018. The average harvest date was Oct. 2, some 12 days earlier than last year and nine days earlier than in 2018.
With Ohio yet to be finalized, the corn average remains at 3.59, above 3.25 last year but below 3.94 two years ago. Harvest dates for corn were similar to those in 2018 but quicker than last year. North Dakota’s mid-October harvest was much earlier than the mid-December and mid-March harvests from the previous two years.
The USDA pegged the September soybean crush at 171 mil bu versus trade estimates of 171 mil (175 mil last month, 165 mil a year ago). Soymeal stocks 312,000t versus 388,000t last month and 360,000t a year ago. Soyoil stocks 1.848 bil lbs (estimate was 1.826 bil) versus 1.941 bil last month and 1.776 bil a year ago
Mexico’s government aims to provide financing to cover at least 8 million tons of grains production in the 2020-21 autumn-winter cycle with a targeted lending program, the agriculture ministry said; with development bank support, Mexico aims to unlock financing for price hedges worth some 1.5 billion pesos ($70.5 million); of the 8 million tons, 70% is expected to be for corn, 15% for wheat and 15% for sorghum
China is expected to ban imports of Australian wheat, putting a A$560 million (US$394 million) trade in doubt, with the grain the latest to join a list of new blocks on Australian products; from Friday, barley, sugar, red wine, timber, coal, lobster, copper ore and copper concentrates from Australia are expected to be barred from China even if the goods have been paid for and have arrived at ports.
A U.S. grain export terminal near Baton Rouge, Louisiana, is loading about 38,000 tons of U.S. soybeans on a bulk cargo vessel for shipment to Brazil, according to a Southport Agencies shipping lineup; the unusual shipment from the United States, the world’s second-largest soybean exporter, to the top supplier of the oilseed comes as Brazil is grappling with rising prices of domestic food staples.
Brazilian farmers planted around 1 million hectares of soybeans per day during the last week to nearly catch up on sowing delays for the new grain season, consultancy AgRural said; AgRural said soybean planting in Brazil advanced in a week from 23% of the area to 42% by Oct. 29 as farmers worked the fields at a breakneck pace after long-delayed rains provided the necessary soil moisture for them to progress; the current planting situation is now close to the historical average of 44% by this time of the year.
Euronext wheat futures ended little changed on Monday, consolidating after a slide last week as traders weighed a rebound in Chicago, improving crop weather and signs of fresh demand from importers; front-month December milling wheat settled 0.25 euro, or 0.1%, lower at 205.00 euros ($238.31) a ton; it earlier fell to 202.75 euros, close to Thursday’s two-week low of 202 euros, before steadying with support from a rebound in Chicago futures following a five-session slide.
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