Written Commentary
TODAY—-EXPORT SALES
Grains are lower. SF is down 9 cents and near 11.66. SMF is near 390.8. BOF is near 37.99. CZ is down 4 cents and near 4.21. CH21 is near 4.26. WZ is down 2 cents and near 5.95. WH21 is near 6.03. KWZ is down 2 cents and near 5.55. KWH21 is near 564.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 21) Soybeans down 43 yuan ; Soymeal up 3; Soyoil up 142; Palm oil up 152; Corn up 14 — Malasyian Palm is down 12.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 12 ringgit (-0.36%) at 3352 after jumping to its strongest level in more than eight years on surging soybean oil prices and lingering concerns over production in second-largest grower Malaysia because of a labor shortage.
U.S. Midwest Weather: Scattered showers Friday-Sunday, mostly south. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Showers exiting Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.
Brazil Weather: Scattered showers through Thursday, mostly north. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias scattered showers north Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.
Argentina Weather: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires is looking at isolated showers west through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires is looking at isolated showers west Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; buyers 12,500 Corn; net buyers of 6,500 Soybeans; sellers of 500 Soymeal, and; net buyers of 8,000 lots of Soyoil.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 18 were: SRW Wheat up 764 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,217, Corn up 2,193, Soybeans up 3,210, Soymeal up 4,616, Soyoil up 3,193.
South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries tenders for 75,000 tonnes soybeans of soybeans free GMOs, in three 25,000 tonne consignments of optional origin
South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 132,000 tonnes of corn, expected to be sourced either from the United States or South America, purchased at an estimated $241.69 a tonne.
USDA confirmed private sales of 140,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2020/21 marketing year that began Sept. 1.
Jordan’s state grain buyer, the trade ministry, made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which closed on Wednesday.
Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 82,220 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, European traders said.
Lingering dryness in the eastern half of the Pampas fractionally lowers 2020/21 Argentina corn production to 44.5 [39.4–48.7] million tons, despite the welcomed moisture in its western counterpart. Our current estimate puts planted area at 6.4 million hectares, slightly above 6.3 million hectares reported by Bolsa de Comercio in Buenos Aires, but below the Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario’s 7 million hectares. Corn planting is 43% complete nationally according to the Ministry of Agriculture, largely on schedule compared to last year’s 41% and the 42% five-year average.
The Argentine government on Wednesday stepped in to end a less than day-old strike by tug boat crews that had threatened to disrupt the country’s key grains export sector, with the Labor Ministry ordering a resumption of contract negotiations. The strike had begun to affect activity in the Rosario ports hub, which is responsible for about 80% of Argentina’s grains exports. Not all the country’s grains ports require the use of tug boats.
India is likely to export 3.5 to 4 million tonnes of wheat to the neighboring South East Asian and West Asian countries till March, compared to the 0.18 million tonne in the previous year, if the government extends an export subsidy, said the trade. The current stocks in the country with the government and the private sector are over 56 million tonnes, which the government will have to offload ahead of the arrival of the new crop in April. “It is estimated that Indian exporters contracted 0.5 million tonne of wheat this season with customers in Middle-East, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and South East Asia.
American farmers could plant a record acreage of major field crops next year if favorable prices continue and spring weather allows, a U.S. Department of Agriculture official said on Wednesday.
Lingering dryness in the eastern half of the Pampas fractionally lowers 2020/21 Argentina soybean production to 48.4 [42.9–53.4] million tons, despite the welcomed moisture in its western counterpart. Our current estimate puts planted area at 17.8 million hectares, above 17.2-17.3 million hectares reported by Bolsa de Comercio in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario.
As farmers are nearing completion of winter wheat plantings and more favorable recent weather supports early growth, 2021/22 Ukraine wheat production is kept at 26.7 [21.6-32.3] million tons, 1.5% above our estimation for the 2020/21 season (26.3 million tons). In its latest WASDE report (10 November), the USDA kept 2020/21 production at 25.5 million tons.
South Africa’s 2020 maize harvest is expected to be 36% higher than the previous season, boosted by favorable weather conditions, a Reuters survey of five analysts and traders showed on Wednesday. The Crop Estimates Committee is expected to peg the 2019/2020 maize harvest at 15.379 million tonnes in its final estimate on Nov. 26, down from its October forecast of 15.420 million tonnes. The 2019/2020 crop is forecast to be 36% higher than the 11.275 million tonnes harvested in the 2018/2019 season, when yields were hit by unfavorable weather.
Vietnam culls 76,905 pigs this year through Nov. 17 from 1,409 African swine fever outbreaks in 307 districts under 50 provinces and cities, the agriculture ministry’s department of animal health says in written documents released during Ho Chi Minh City conference. Included are 496 outbreaks occurring from last year and 886 recurring outbreaks. Outbreaks occur in small household farms that do not follow bio-safety measures.
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