Written Commentary
TODAY—DELIVERABLE STOCKS—
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 1 cent, HRW down 2; HRS Wheat unchanged, Corn is up 3 cents; Soybeans up 14; Soymeal up $4.50, and Soyoil up 15 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 15 yuan in soybeans, up 2 in Corn, down 22 in Soymeal, up 58 in Soyoil, and up 78 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 5 ringgit at 3,378 (basis February) closing with ideas rising prices will now limit exports.
South America Weather Forecast: In Argentina, last evening’s GFS model run was notably wetter in central and southern production areas Nov. 26- Dec. 1. In Brazil, center west and center south production areas will start to trend drier after Wednesday which will benefit fieldwork advancement; though, greater rain will then be needed; the far south will be driest in week 1 of the outlook; however, this area will then be wetter in week 2.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 17,000 Corn; bought 7,000 Soybeans; net bought 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 2,000 lots of Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 23,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 247,000 Corn; net long 239,000 Soybeans; net long 79,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 107,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 2,200 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,700; Corn down 11,300; Soybeans up 800 contracts; Soymeal up 2,700 lots, and; Soyoil down 285.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1; Soybeans 179; Soyoil 1,770 lots; Soymeal 193; Rice 417; HRW Wheat 113, and; HRS 1,195.
Tender Activity—Japan seeks 102,000t optional-origin wheat—Iran seeks 60,000t optional-origin soymeal; Egypt seeks optional-origin soy, sunoil–
U.S.Winter Wheat plantings were 96% complete versus trade estimates of 97% and 94% average.
U.S. Corn harvest 95% complete versus 96% estimate and 87% average.
U.S. Soybean harvest 96% complete versus 96% estimate and 93% average.
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had
—Wheat exports running 1% ahead of a year ago (2% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 1% increase on the year
—Corn 68% ahead of a year ago (up 74% last week) with the USDA up 49% for the season
—Soybeans are up 78% on the year (up 78% last week) with the USDA having a 31% increase forecasted on the year
NOPA October soybean crush jumps to record-high 185.245 million bushels – Reuters News
The monthly U.S. soybean crush surged to a record high in October, topping all trade estimates, according to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) on Monday
NOPA said its members crushed 185.245 million bushels of soybeans last month, up from 161.491 million bushels in September and 175.397 million bushels in October 2019; it was the largest crush on record, eclipsing the previous record of 181.374 million bushels set in March 2020
NOPA pegged soyoil supplies among its members at the end of October at 1.487 billion lbs, up from 1.433 billion lbs at the end of September and 1.423 billion lbs at the end of October 2019
Soymeal exports in October totaled 945,835 tons, down from 991,134 tons in September but up from 894,817 tons in October last year
Chicago corn and soybean futures surged after the U.S. government slashed domestic supply outlooks last week, but against expectations, speculators’ bullish bets were very little changed by comparison; the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Nov. 10 made historically large cuts to the U.S. corn and soybean harvests; but the agency maintained or increased robust demand expectations, sending ending stock projections to multiyear lows, well below what traders predicted.
Tyson Foods says China’s likely to remain a top buyer of US pork exports. China, the biggest global consumer of pork, is trying to rebuild its own hog industry after a deadly swine disease wiped out around 40% of the country’s hog herd, and Tyson Foods CEO Dean Banks says that complete recovery of China’s industry may depend on eradicating the disease there via a vaccine or some other measure; in the meantime, China has banned pork imports from Germany due to concerns about the virus there, shifting more of China’s imports to US supplies
Conditions for Russia’s winter wheat sowings remain tense, especially in part of Volgograd, Stavropol and nearby regions, despite some improvement seen in recent weeks, analysts said; farmers in Russia have been sowing winter wheat in dry soil this year, increasing risks for the 2021 crop; despite some improvement in recent weeks, plants are still in a bad shape overall,” Sovecon agriculture consultancy said; a lot will depend on how harsh this winter will be and how much precipitation we will see; frmers have already sown winter grains for next year’s crop on 99.7% of the planned area, or on 19.1 million hectares, up from 18.1 million hectares around the same date a year ago
Russian wheat export prices edged up last week for the second consecutive week as the agriculture ministry released a draft of its plan to introduce a grain export quota, analysts said; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports was at $254 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $1 from the previous week, the IKAR and Sovecon agriculture consultancies said.
Analyst APK-Inform lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s 2020/21 grain harvest and exports due to a significant fall in expected corn production; it said Ukraine was likely to harvest 67.1 million tons of grain, including 31.8 million tons of corn this year and that exports might decline to 47.6 million tons, including 25.2 million tons of corn in the 2020/21 season; last month, the consultancy forecast a grain harvest of 70 million tons with exports of 50.9 million tons.
Soft wheat exports from the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season that started on July 1 had reached 8.50 million tons by Nov. 12, official EU data showed; that was 22% below the volume cleared by the same week last year.
Soybean imports into the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season that started on July 1 totaled 5.29 million tons by Nov. 12, official EU data showed; that was 2% above the volume imported by the same time in the previous 2019/20 season.
France has detected a highly pathogenic strain of bird flu in the pet section of a shop in one of Corsica’s main cities, the farm ministry said on Monday, in a latest outbreak of the disease in Europe in recent weeks.
Euronext wheat futures touched one-week lows on Monday, curbed by a steady euro and an earlier fall in Chicago, while physical premiums held firm after import tenders sustained international demand; front-month December milling wheat settled down 0.75 euro, or 0.4%, at 209.25 euros ($247.75) a ton, after earlier falling to its lowest since Nov. 9 at 208.25 euros; March futures ended down 0.75 euro at 209.00 euros, after an earlier one-week low at 207.75 euros.
Indonesia is unlikely to proceed with plans to raise the bio-content of its palm oil-based biodiesel to 40% next year as it struggles to fund the program, an energy ministry official told parliament; instead, the Southeast Asian country will retain its biodiesel B30 program which makes it compulsory for diesel in Indonesia to be blended with 30% fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) made out of palm oil next year.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
