Global Ag News for Nov 15th

 TODAY – CROP PROGRESS, COMMITMENT OF TRADERS, EXPORT INSPECTIONS, NOPA

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 3/4 in SRW, up 1 3/4 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 2 1/2; Soymeal up $0.08; Soyoil down 0.37.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 50 in SRW, up 52 1/4 in HRW, up 53 in HRS; Corn is up 22 1/2; Soybeans up 53 1/4; Soymeal up $2.91; Soyoil up 0.56. For the month to date wheat prices are up 46 1/4 in SRW, up 48 1/4 in HRW, up 16 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/4; Soybeans down 7 3/4; Soymeal up $27.00; Soyoil down 2.60.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans down 13 yuan ; Soymeal up 2; Soyoil up 42; Palm oil up 58; Corn down 18 — Malasyian Palm is up 31. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 31 ringgit (+0.63%) at 4966.

There were changes in registrations (-114 Soybeans, ). Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 2 Corn; 1,193 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 12 were: SRW Wheat up 4,393 contracts, HRW Wheat up 6,535, Corn up 10,081, Soybeans up 2,662, Soymeal up 2,980, Soyoil up 8,165.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers west Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, below normal Tuesday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers west Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, below normal Tuesday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Snow north Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday, above normal Tuesday. East: Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday, snow north. Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Sunday.

The player sheet for Nov. 12 had funds: net buyers of 3,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 12,500 corn, buyers of 16,000 soybeans, buyers of 11,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 256,930 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.
• CORN SALE: Turkish Grain Board selected the best offers for 325,000 tons of feed corn in a tender that closed Monday

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Iraq will issue an international tender to buy 500,000 tonnes of wheat in December or early 2022, a trade ministry spokesperson told Reuters on Friday.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase 48,000 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States

• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: The United Nations agency issued an international tender to purchase about 110,000 tonnes of milling wheat for supply to Ethiopia
• CORN TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase about 325,000 tonnes of animal feed corn
• WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by January 31, 2022, and arrive in Japan by Feb. 24, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Nov. 17.
• SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued international tenders to purchase around 115,000 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically modified organisms (GMOs)
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat

U.S. Sold 1.32M Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 1.06M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Nov. 4.

• Soybean sales fell to 1,319k tons vs 1,864k in previous week
• Corn sales fell to 1,065k tons vs 1,224k in previous week
• All wheat sales fell to 308k tons vs 400k in previous week

CROP SURVEY: U.S. October Soybean Crush Seen at 183.6M Bushels

Projections are based on a survey of seven analysts conducted by Bloomberg News on Nov. 11-12.

• Soybean crush seen 0.9% lower vs October of last year, and an increase of 19.4% vs a month ago
• Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 1.726b lbs vs 1.487b a year earlier

Ukraine Wheat Exports Rose 16.8% Y/Y in 2021-22, Ministry Says

Ukraine already exported 13.1m tons of wheat, more than half of the planned volume for the 2021-22 marketing year, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

• Also shipped
  • 4.6m tons of barley, up 33% y/y

• • 3.5m tons of corn, almost on a par with last year
• Total grain exports reached 21.5m tons, up 16% y/y, which is more than one-third of the projected volume for 2021-22
• Ukraine’s farmers reaped 73% of corn planned for this year, or 28.1m tons, and planted 6.7m ha with winter wheat, or 94% of the projected area
• NOTE: Marketing year for wheat starts in July

 Russian Wheat Exports Decline Further, Down 16% Y/y: Agency

Wheat shipments for the 2021-22 season amounted to 16.6m tons as of Nov. 11, down 16% from a year earlier, the Federal Center of Quality and Safety Assurance for Grain and Grain Products said on its website, citing inspections before exports.

• That means wheat exports totaled about 700k tons in the week to Nov. 11
• Exports of all grains are at 19.6m tons so far this season
  • Barley exports declined 30% y/y
  • Corn exports up 21%
• NOTE: Last week the center said that wheat exports were down 13% y/y

Malaysia Nov. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports +26.63% M/m: Intertek

Malaysia’s palm oil exports rose 26.63% m/m during Nov. 1-15, according to Intertek Testing Services.

Malaysia’s Nov. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 798,399 Tons: AmSpec

Shipments rise 10.3% m/m from 723,561 tons exported during Oct. 1-15, according to AmSpec Agri on Monday.

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Fast sowing pace and weather conditions raise expectations for a good harvest

Sowing of soybean crops from the 2021/22 season is in full swing in Brazil, having reached more than 2/3 of the area until last week. The weather has been favoring crops, raising expectations for higher productivity.

In this scenario, sellers have been more willing to trade the remaining of the 2020/21 season, making room in warehouses to receive the new crop, whose harvesting activities are expected to begin from late December/early 2022. These agents are also interested in closing term contracts, majorly due to the possibility of higher supply. However, the trading pace this season has been slower than that in previous years.

According to Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), 67.3% of the area allocated to soybean in Brazil had been sown until Nov. 6, against 55.1% in the same period last year. Among the Brazilian states, 96% had been sown in Mato Grosso; 75%, in São Paulo; 88%, in Mato Grosso do Sul; 78%, in Paraná; 76%, in Goiás; 46.9%, in Santa Catarina; 40%, in Bahia and in Maranhão; 65%, in Tocantins; and 12%, in Rio Grande do Sul and in Piauí.

As for deals, in Mato Grosso, 44.4% of the estimated output for 2021/22 has been sold, according to Imea, against 64.4% in the same period last year. In Paraná, according to Deral/Seab, 8% of the new crop has been sold against 40% last year.

With the fast-sowing pace, expectations for higher supply and farmers more willing to traded, soybean prices continued to drop in Brazil in the last days. Between Nov. 4 and 11, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index Paranaguá decreased by 3.8%, closing at BRL 158.88 (USD 29.43)/60-kilo bag on Nov. 11, the lowest level since June 30. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index Paraná dropped by 3.8%, closing at BRL 156.11 (USD 28.92)/60-kilo bag, the lowest since July 6.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, the prices paid to soybean farmers (over-the-counter market) in Brazil faded by 4.2% in the last seven days; in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values decreased by 4.3%. The US dollar dropped by 3.9%, to BRL 5.5398 on Thursday.

CORN/CEPEA: Estimates confirm high productivity; prices continue to drop in BR

Estimates released this week point to a possible high productivity in the corn crops from the 2021/22 season, which increased pressure on prices – corn values have been fading for some weeks in most Brazilian regions surveyed by Cepea.

Purchasers continue away from the national spot market. As for sellers, some of them are still assessing the need of cash flow, while other have been willing to trade, aiming to make room in warehouses to receive the summer crop. Besides, the exports pace has been slow.

Between Nov. 4 and 11, the prices paid to corn farmers (over-the-counter market) dropped by 2.3% on the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea; in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values decreased by 3.5%. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn (Campinas, SP) closed at BRL 83.59 (USD 15.49)/60-kilo bag on Thursday, 11, 3.3% down from that on the previous Thursday, 4, thus returning to the nominal level from February.

Besides the low demand for exports, the dollar depreciation this week has pressed down corn values at ports. With this recent devaluation and the fact that the average price at ports is near that in the interior of the country, farmers continued more interested in closing deals in the domestic market. Brazilian corn exports are expected to continue low in the coming weeks.

Cepea surveys show that, between Nov. 4 and 11, corn prices dropped by 4.3% at the port of Paranaguá (PR) and by 5.1% at the port of Santos (SP), to BRL 83.46/bag and BRL 82.93/bag, respectively, on Nov. 11. The dollar dropped by 3.9% in that period, to BRL 5.398 on Thursday, 11.

ESTIMATES – Despite the initial concerns about the weather, rains interleaved with sunny days in most of October and in early November favored the crops from the 2021/22 season, increasing perspectives for higher productivity.

According to Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), the area allocated to the summer crop of corn is expected to be up to 2.5% larger than that in the previous season, estimated at 4.45 million hectares. So far, productivity is forecast to be 12% higher than that in the 2020/21 season, and the output may surpass 28 million tons, a significant increase of 16%.

For the second and third crops, data are still based on statistics, but point to an area increase, due to higher demand. Besides, sowing of the summer crop is in progress in Brazil, therefore, the second crop is expected to be sown within the ideal period.

CROPS – According to Emater/RS, 82% of the area allocated to corn crops in Rio Grande do Sul (2021/22 season) had been sown until Nov. 11. In Paraná, according to Deral/Seab, sowing of the summer crop has reached 98% of the area, and activities are beginning to slow down, according to a report released on Nov. 10. In São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Goiás, activities had reached 70%, 50% and 91.6% of the respective areas until Nov. 11, according to Conab.

China plans overhaul of seed rules to pave way for GMO approvals

China has laid out a clear path for seed makers to get approval for genetically modified crops, under proposed rule changes that should lead to commercial cultivation of GM corn.

Details of the planned regulatory overhaul for the seed industry were published on Friday by the agriculture ministry in a draft document that is open for public comment until Dec. 12. The proposed changes mean that a handful of recently approved GM traits developed by Chinese companies could be ready for market launch in a year.

U.S. Beef Production Up 0.7% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA

• Cattle slaughter up 0.8% from a week ago to 655m head
• Pork production up 0.7% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 0.4%
• For the year, beef production is 2.6% above last year’s level at this time, while pork is 2.2% below

Cold Snap Slows Wheat Sowing in China

Wheat sowing in China’s Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces has been further delayed due to a cold spell last week, according to the National Meteorological Center.

• Some greenhouse facilities were also damaged, leading to crop losses
• Still, higher temperatures and lower rainfall in most agricultural areas of the nation will benefit crops
• AUSTRALIA
  • Drier weather in east central areas through the week may allow wetness to ease; would be beneficial to wheat harvesting, according to weather forecaster Maxar
  • Harvesting set to slow again in Western Australia during the week
  • Moisture levels remain adequate for sorghum in eastern areas
• INDIA
  • Rains likely in parts of Odisha, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala for five days from Monday, according to the India Meteorological Department
  • NOTE: Heavy rains may hamper harvesting in some parts; Karnataka is the country’s biggest coffee and corn producer, Maharashtra is No. 2 cotton, soybean and sugar cane grower, Kerala is top rubber producer