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Global Ag News for Nov 11th

TODAY – NO REPORTS SCHEDULED (US HOLIDAY)

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, up 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 3/4; Soymeal up $0.07; Soyoil down 0.40.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 34 in SRW, up 39 in HRW, up 49 in HRS; Corn is up 14 3/4; Soybeans up 10 1/4; Soymeal up $1.05; Soyoil down 0.13. For the month to date wheat prices are up 28 1/4 in SRW, up 31 1/2 in HRW, up 11 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 33 1/2; Soymeal up $10.50; Soyoil down 2.53.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 34 yuan ; Soymeal up 31; Soyoil up 246; Palm oil up 286; Corn down 22 — Malasyian Palm is down 39. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 39 ringgit (-0.79%) at 4881.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 2 Corn; 1,318 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 10 were: SRW Wheat up 6,131 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,844, Corn up 15,456, Soybeans up 9,023, Soymeal up 721, Soyoil up 2,086.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers west through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers west through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers Wednesday. Snow north Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday night-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday. East: Isolated showers Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers east Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

The player sheet for Nov. 10 had funds: net buyers of 16,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 20,000 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, zero soymeal, and  buyers of 4,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • CORN SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 137,000 tonnes of corn an international tender, which closed on Wednesday,
  • WHEAT, BARLEY SALE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 tonnes of soft wheat and about 50,000 tonnes of feed barley in an international tender, which closed on Wednesday
  • SOYOIL SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 22,000 tonnes of U.S. soybean oil for shipment to unknown destinations in the 2021/22 season.
  • WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by January 31, 2022 and arrive in Japan by February 24, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on November 17.
  • VEGOIL TENDER CANCELED: Egypt’s state grains buyer GASC has canceled its international tender for vegetable oils for arrival Jan. 5-25, it said on Wednesday. GASC did not give a reason for the cancellation.

PENDING TENDERS

  • WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
  • WHEAT TENDER: The United Nations agency issued an international tender to purchase about 110,000 tonnes of milling wheat for supply to Ethiopia
  • WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture is seeking to buy a total of 157,987 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Nov. 11.
  • CORN TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase about 325,000 tonnes of animal feed corn
  • SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued international tenders to purchase around 115,000 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs)
  • WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Friday for week ending Nov. 4.

  • Corn est. range 800k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 990k
  • Soybean est. range 600k – 1,800k tons, with avg of 1,360k

Brazil’s Soybean Crop, Exports Seen at Records in 2021-22

Output is expected to rise 3% to 142m tons on larger area, Rabobank analyst Marcela Marini says during webinar.

  • Season has a great start as weather has been aiding plantings, but production still depends on La Nina impacts
  • Exports next year may reach 88m tons
  • Chinese imports seen at 101m tons amid pig herd recovery
  • CBOT price seen at $12.55-12.75/bu on average in 2022 as global stockpiles are expected to recover
  • Brazil’s 2021-22 corn crop seen rising 33% y/y to 116m tons
  • Shipments seen at 37m-38m tons
  • CBOT corn price seen at $5.35-5.50/bu on average in 2022

France Soft-Wheat Exports Increase 13% Y/y: FranceAgriMer

French soft-wheat exports outside the EU in the 2021-22 season totaled 1.8m tons through September, versus 1.59m tons at the same time last year, data posted by crops office FranceAgriMer showed Wednesday.

  • Top markets are Algeria (667k tons), U.K. (207k tons), Ivory Coast (177k tons) and China (162k tons)
  • NOTE: Weekly trade reports posted by the European Commission has been lacking French figures, with data for the country only complete through July
    • Commission’s latest update shows French soft-wheat exports at 823k tons
  • French barley exports totaled 1.44m tons through September, up 52% y/y: AgriMer
    • Includes 1.31m tons shipped to China

Russia will set grain export quota by mid-February -grain union head

Russia will set its grain export quota for the second half of the 2021/22 marketing season by Feb. 15 and it will be in place until June 30, Eduard Zernin, who heads the Russian union of grain exporters, told Reuters on Wednesday.

Russia plans to set a grain export quota for the first half of 2022, including the one for wheat, to secure domestic supply, its agriculture minister Dmitry Patrushev said earlier on Wednesday.

Russia exported 23.9 mln tonnes of wheat in Jan-Sept

Russian exports of wheat decreased to 23.9 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2021 from 24.7 million tonnes a year ago, official customs data showed.

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Fell 26% Last Week: USDA

Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers declined in the week ending Nov. 6 from the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

  • Barge shipments of corn fell 22% from the previous week
  • Soybean shipments down 28% w/w

Faster Pig Slaughtering to Be Allowed in U.S. Pilot Program (2)

  • Slowdown in line speeds has dented pork supply, raised prices
  • Lean hog futures rise in Chicago after three days of losses

Faster U.S. pig slaughtering will be allowed under a pilot program after sluggish processing pinched pork supplies and raised meat prices.

Production-line speeds can be accelerated for up to a year under the new program, according to an emailed statement from U.S. Department of Agriculture spokeswoman Kate Waters. Companies will be required to enact safety measures through agreements with labor unions or employee-safety committees.

Meatpackers and farmers have long been frustrated with slaughter limits that hinder production and lower the prices hogs fetch. Safety advocates argue that workers need to be better protected from potential problems ranging from bodily strains to lost limbs. Today’s action from USDA was seen as long overdue by the industry.

“This is a bullish development,” said Dennis Smith, senior account executive at Archer Financial Services Inc.

Brazil’s B3 bourse to launch local soybean futures contract

Brazilian stock exchange operator B3 SA will launch a local soybean futures contract developed in partnership with the CME Group CME.O, B3 said on Wednesday, as it aims to improve hedging tools for the grain supply chain in Brazil.

According to B3, the so-called “Futuro de Soja Brasil” contract, will have Santos port exporting prices as its benchmark and financial liquidation in U.S. dollar per ton. It will start trading on Nov. 29.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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