Global Ag News for Nov 11.22

TOP HEADLINES

About a Tenth of Ukraine Corn May Go Unharvested: USDA FAS

Ukraine’s corn production in the 2022-23 season is seen at 25.8 tons, below the latest official USDA forecast for 31.5m tons, the agency’s Foreign Agricultural Service says in a report.

• The harvest has been delayed and large areas won’t be collected by December, when it is normally complete
• The office estimates “around 10% of planted corn areas might not be harvested as farmers are facing both shortages of funds for fuel and available storage”
  • Costs for natural gas used to dry harvested grain is also a factor
• However, wheat exports for the season are seen at 12.4m tons, topping latest official USDA forecast for 11m tons
  • That factors in a potential shutdown of the Black Sea crop-export corridor in mid-November, the agency says
  • NOTE: Country also ships grain by rail, road and river
• Corn exports seen at 13.9m tons, trailing USDA forecast for 15.5m tons

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 6 1/2 in SRW, up 7 1/2 in HRW, up 7 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 6 3/4; Soybeans up 24 3/4; Soymeal up $0.57; Soyoil up 1.08.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 37 3/4 in SRW, down 21 3/4 in HRW, down 14 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 21; Soybeans down 14 1/2; Soymeal down $1.06; Soyoil down 0.14.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 72 1/4 in SRW, down 45 1/4 in HRW, down 38 in HRS; Corn is down 31 1/2; Soybeans up 28 1/4; Soymeal down $18.30; Soyoil up 4.10.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 5% in SRW, up 16% in HRW, down -5% in HRS; Corn is up 11%; Soybeans up 10%; Soymeal down 0%; Soyoil up 37%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 23) Soybeans up 25 yuan; Soymeal down 35; Soyoil down 8; Palm oil up 158; Corn up 8 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 112 ringgit (+2.68%) at 4290.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 3,077 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 291 Soybeans; 39 Soyoil; 278 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 10 were: SRW Wheat up 2,986 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,055, Corn down 11,236, Soybeans down 1,836, Soymeal down 1,814, Soyoil up 6,131.

Northern Plains Forecast: Heavy snow is falling in the Northern Plains on Thursday morning which will continue into Friday morning before clearing out. Some areas are likely to see over 12 inches of accumulation in the Dakotas. With strong winds developing, blizzard conditions will be possible Thursday into Friday. Very cold air is moving in behind the system, lasting through next week with a couple of reinforcing shots of arctic air and some light snow.

 Central/Southern Plains Forecast: A strong storm system to the north is sweeping a cold front through the Central and Southern Plains Thursday. A line of showers is moving through with the front but is weak as drought continues to build across western areas. Gusty winds are coming with the system as well, which continues to dry out soils. Much colder air follows the system, with colder air lasting through next week. This could start to turn wheat dormant in poor condition. Another cold front will push through early next week with some additional showers and potential for accumulating snow across southern areas. There is some limited potential for precipitation over southwestern areas, mostly in the Texas Panhandle.

Midwest Forecast: A storm will push through Thursday and Friday with strong winds, heavier showers across the north and a push of colder air. Some snow will be possible in Minnesota. The colder air will last through next week with a couple of reinforcing shots that may also bring some showers, mostly in the form of snow.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated showers are returning to Brazil, filling into southern areas on Friday. The showers will not last long over southern areas as another front clears out the area on Monday. If showers disappoint, soil moisture in southern areas will decline, starting to impact corn and, to a lesser extent, soybeans. Showers next week may still be possible for southern areas, but unlikely. Central areas should fare better with showers continuing.

Canadian Prairies Forecast:  Isolated showers are moving back into Argentina but will be cleared out on Sunday. A long period of dryness has had a significant effect on filling wheat as well as corn and soybean planting and establishment. Showers may still go through late next week with a weaker cold front, but will likely be isolated. If showers disappoint over the next few days, the drought will likely start to damage corn and soybeans, as well as push back planting even further.

The player sheet for Nov. 10 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 10,500 corn, sellers of 9,500 soybeans, sellers of 6,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, is believed to have bought 280,000 tonnes of Russian wheat via direct purchases, traders said on Thursday.
• SUNFLOWER OIL SALE: Egypt’s state grains buyer GASC has bought 6,000 tonnes of sunflower oil in an international tender, it said on Thursday without providing further details.
• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private U.S. corn sales totaling 209,931 tonnes to Mexico for shipment in the 2022/23 marketing year.
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has purchased an estimated 134,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Thursday
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 60,000 tonnes of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America in a private deal on Wednesday without an international tender being issued
• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s main state wheat buying agency, the Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO) said it had issued an international tender to purchase 595,000 tonnes of wheat, confirming earlier reports from European traders.
• WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 100,000 tonnes of soft wheat, 100,000 tonnes of durum wheat and 75,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 94,603 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in regular tenders that closed on Thursday.
• CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 69,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 50,500 tonnes of rice to be sourced from the United States, European traders said. The deadline for submissions is Nov. 9.
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: An importer group in the Philippines is tendering to purchase at least 60,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat, European traders said. The deadline for price submissions is believed to be Nov. 10.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Nov. 15.
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said on Wednesday it will seek 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Nov. 16.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Nov. 16.
• WHEAT TENDER: Iraq’s state grains buyer has issued a tender to buy a nominal 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat sourced from the United States only with a limited number of trading companies asked to offer, traders said.

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Nov. 3, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• China bought 927k tons of soybeans; cancellations from unknown buyers were 767k tons
• Mexico was the top buyer of corn and countries listed as unknown buyers led in wheat

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Fell 30% Y/Y Since July 1, Ministry Says

Ukraine’s grain exports shrank by 30% y/y in the current season to 14.6m tons as of Nov. 9, the country’s Agriculture Ministry says on its website.

• Total includes:
  • 5.6m tons of wheat, down 57% y/y
  • 1.2m tons of barley, down 74% y/y
  • 7.8m tons of corn, up 149%
• NOTE: The pace of decline in Ukraine’s exports from last year is slowing, as the nation continues to ship grain via so-called corridor in the Black Sea after Russia’s invasion
• NOTE: Data may include grain that is aimed for exports, but hasn’t left the country yet

Indonesia to Raise Nov. 15-30 CPO Reference Price, Impose Levy

Govt to set crude palm oil reference price at $826.58/ton for Nov. 15-30 period, higher than $770.88 a ton in the previous 15 days, Musdhalifah Machmud, deputy for food and agriculture at the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, says in text messages.

• Higher reference price will push CPO export tax higher to $33/ton from $18/ton in the first two weeks of November
• Exporters will also be required to pay additional exports levy of $85/ton, according to a related finance ministry regulation

Indonesian Firms Ink Deal to Sell 2.5M Tons of Palm Oil to China

Nine Indonesian firms to sell 2.5m tons of CPO and palm oil products to Chinese buyers, says the Indonesian trade ministry in a statement on Friday.

• Exports valued at $2.6 billion
• Statement did not name the companies

Argentina Wheat Forecast Slashed 14% to 11.8m Tons, Rosario Says

After frosts compounded a drought, the upcoming wheat harvest is seen at just 11.8m metric tons compared with 13.7m tons in October, the Rosario Board of Trade said in a monthly report.

• The average yield of plants is the worse since the drought-ravaged 2008-09 season
• The bourse is losing hope that Argentina’s breadbasket region of southeastern Buenos Aires province might mitigate losses elsewhere with wheat there also struggling
• SOY, CORN:
  • Farmers are planting soy on parched farms hoping a forecast for rain comes good
• The bourse expects a difficult season of fieldwork, with “big doubts” as to whether all the soy area will get seeded
  • Soy area estimate 17.1m hectares (42.3m acres) vs. 17m last month as farmers switch to beans from early corn because of the dryness
  • With 1.5m ha sown so far, soy plantings trail last season by ~11 ppts
• Area estimate for trade-quality corn is 6.9m ha vs. 7m last month
  • Corn planting 25% complete, trailing last season by 18 ppts

Food import costs rise to record in 2022, threatening world’s poorest – FAO

Food imports costs across the world are on course to hit a near $2 trillion record in 2022, piling pressure on the globe’s poorest countries who likely shipped in considerably less volumes of food, the U.N. Food Agency said on Friday.

World food prices soared to record levels in March after Russia invaded Ukraine, a key grains and oilseeds producer, and while they have since retreated somewhat, they remain above last year’s lofty levels.

The increase is disproportionately affecting economically vulnerable countries, and is expected to continue doing so next year even as the overall agricultural supply situation is set to improve a bit.

“These are alarming signs from a food security perspective,” the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said its twice-yearly Food Outlook report.

The world’s food import bill is projected to reach $1.94 trillion this year, up 10% year-on-year and higher than previously expected, the FAO said.

It noted that low income countries’ food import volumes are seen shrinking 10% as their food import bill for the year remains almost unchanged, pointing to growing accessibility issues.

“Importers are finding it difficult to finance rising international costs, potentially heralding an end of their resilience to higher international prices,” the FAO said.

In terms of agricultural inputs like fertilisers, which require a lot of energy to produce, the FAO said global import costs are set to rise nearly 50% this year to $424 billion, forcing some countries to buy and use less.

This will inevitably lead to lower productivity, lower domestic food availability and “negative repercussions for global agricultural output and food security” in 2023, it said.

Looking to the 2022/23 season, the agency sees wheat production jumping 0.6% year-on-year to hit a record 784 million tonnes, but notes increases are expected mostly in China and Russia, leaving inventories down 8% in the rest of the world.

Production of coarse grains like corn, barley and sorghum is meanwhile seen falling 2.8% in the season.

On the plus side, however, the FAO said oilseeds output is seen rebounding 4.2% to hit an all time high, sugar output is seen rising 2.6%, while rice output is expected to remain at overall average levels thanks to resilient plantings in Asia and recovering output in Africa.

U.S. year-round sales of an ethanol-gas blend wins oil group’s support

A Republican U.S. senator plans to submit federal legislation with the support of a major oil industry trade group that would expand national sales of E15, a higher ethanol-gasoline blend.

Senator Deb Fischer, of Nebraska, the third-largest U.S. corn-producing state, told Reuters on Thursday she believes there is a path forward for year-round sales of E15, which has been opposed in the past by some oil and environmental groups.

Fischer said she would provide more details of the proposed legislation in the coming weeks. If the bill passed, it would be a win for U.S. corn farmers and the ethanol industry. Ethanol in the United States is made largely from corn.

One of the oil industry’s top trade groups, the American Petroleum Institute (API), and the Renewable Fuels Association earlier this year began discussions to seek a nationwide expansion of E15, according to an industry source familiar with the matter.

The API began cooperating with the biofuels trade group after governors from major corn-producing Midwestern states requested the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) effectively lift restrictions on E15 sales in their states, the source said. The governors’ proposal raised oil industry concerns about fuel supplies.

“A state-by-state approach would create a boutique fuel market in the Midwest and may negatively impact the reliability of gasoline supply to the region,” said Will Hupman, API’s vice president of downstream policy.

“We urge Congress to pass legislation that allows for the year-round sale of E15 nationwide, cancels the pending requests from the Midwest states, and preserves access to lower ethanol gasoline blends,” said Hupman.

The EPA effectively restricts summertime sales of E15 over concerns that it contributes to smog in hot weather, though research has since shown the higher percentage blend may not increase smog relative to the 10% blend called E10 that is now sold year-round.

The bill would represent just the latest push to win nationwide, year-round sales. A federal appeals court last year struck down the Trump’s administration approval of year-round E15 sales, arguing it did not have the authority. That decision had been sparked by a challenge from the oil refining industry.

Russia Wheat-Export Tax to Fall to 2,922 Rubles/Ton: Tass

Russia’s wheat-export duty will next week fall to 2,922 rubles ($48.46) a ton from 3,012 rubles, Tass reports, citing the agriculture ministry.

• NOTE: Russia started calculating the export tax in rubles in July; previously, it was calculated in dollars, and the amount was markedly higher

China’s Wheat Prices Hit Record High Despite Bumper Crop

Wheat prices in China jumped to a record high despite the summer’s bumper harvest as wheat farmers wait for higher prices while pandemic control has hindered logistics, resulting in a limited supply.

After summer, the price of one jin or half a kilogram of wheat rose by CNY0.2 to a new high of CNY1.65 (up by US 3 cents to US 20 cents) in most regions from previous years, Wang Han, a wheat farmer in Anhui province, said to Yicai Global. Summer grain harvest usually ends in June or July.

However, the yield rose above the usual as one mu of land (0.7 hectares) generated over 50 kg more harvest, Wang added.

The situation defies the expected market dynamics as prices surged despite stable demand and added output. This is mostly caused by a tighter short-term supply of wheat, Cao Hui, analyst at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said to Yicai Global.

Demand tends to pick up at this time of year as flour mills usually acquire more wheat as temperatures drop, but many Chinese farmers remained relatively reluctant to sell wheat as they expect to receive a higher price later, Cao said. Moreover, supply is lower than demand since farmers are now busy with autumn harvest and planting while Covid-19 restrictions affect regional logistics.

Moreover, feed processors have had to seek alternatives to corn in the past two years amid skyrocketing corn prices, as a large amount of wheat has been used for fodder, Lin explained.

The consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have also affected price expectations in the Chinese market to some extent in the short term.

Still, international price swings are not likely to have a significant impact on the domestic wheat market, Lin Guofa, research director at Bric’s agriproduct bulk trade platform, told Yicai Global. Since 2000, there have been three global rounds of wheat price surges, but none of them had such a big effect on China, Lin added.

Imports are only a drop in the bucket compared to domestic output. Last year, China imported 9.7 million tons of wheat, accounting for 7 percent of the domestic total, according to customs data.

Farmland Prices Increased 20% in Third Quarter: Chicago Fed

The increase in farmland values in the third-quarter from year-ago levels marks the fourth straight quarter of gains of at least 20%, according to the Agricultural Newsletter from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

• Land values are for the Seventh Federal Reserve District that includes North and Central Illinois, most of Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and South-Central Wisconsin
• Rise in farmland values follows higher commodities prices across the board, with some touching their highest levels in decades amid tight inventories and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
• Of 160 bankers surveyed in October, 68% anticipated District farmland values to stay the same in the final quarter of 2022, 25% anticipated them to rise, 7% anticipated them to fall
• Letter ends with comment from banker in Indiana: “Inputs are much above norms, and if commodity prices begin to fall, it will not be pretty. We still have good equity on most farms, but that can dissipate quickly.”

US Barge Rates on the Mississippi River Fell 49% W/w: USDA

Barge prices at St. Louis for shipping grains along the Mississippi River sunk to $40.73 per short ton in the week ending Nov. 8 from $80.11 the previous week, according to data in the USDA’s weekly transportation report.

• This is the lowest since mid-September, the rate peaked at $105.86 on Oct. 11
• Barge shipments of corn rose 60% from the previous week