Global Ag News for Mar 4.22

TODAY – COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS

Wheat prices overnight are up 75 in SRW, up 75 in HRW, up 60 in HRS; Corn is up 14 1/2; Soybeans down 1; Soymeal up $0.83; Soyoil down 1.59.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 349 1/4 in SRW, up 334 1/4 in HRW, up 218 in HRS; Corn is up 106 1/2; Soybeans up 82 1/4; Soymeal up $1.91; Soyoil up 4.29.  For the month to date wheat prices are up 275 in SRW, up 272 1/4 in HRW, up 184 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 71 1/2; Soybeans up 30; Soymeal up $13.40; Soyoil up 0.70.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 74% in SRW, up 42% in HRW, up 17% in HRS; Corn is up 29%; Soybeans up 26%; Soymeal up 12%; Soyoil up 35%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans down 56 yuan; Soymeal up 18; Soyoil down 232; Palm oil down 462; Corn up 14 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 532 ringgit (-7.81%) at 6276.

There were changes in registrations (-22 Soyoil). Registration total: 2,057 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 17 Corn; 68 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 3 were: SRW Wheat down 6,719 contracts, HRW Wheat down 10,254, Corn up 5,017, Soybeans up 2,383, Soymeal down 4,752, Soyoil down 4,427.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers north Thursday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday.

US Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers through Friday, mostly north. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday, especially southeast. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures below normal northeast and near to above normal southwest Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday-Monday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

US Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday night-Sunday. Isolated showers early Monday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Saturday-Sunday, below normal Monday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

The player sheet for 3/3 had funds: net buyers of 12,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 25,000 corn, buyers of 6,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 337,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year that began Sept. 1, 2021.
• SOYBEAN SALE: The USDA also confirmed private sales of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China, including 66,000 tonnes for 2021/22 delivery and 66,000 tonnes for 2022/23 delivery.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korean animal feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased an estimated 207,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in an international tender which closed on Thursday
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 130,000 tonnes of animal feed corn, expected to be sourced from the United States and Argentina, in an international tender
• WHEAT PURCHASE UPDATE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO informed traders it will cut its purchase of wheat in an international tender to about 285,000 tonnes from 370,000 tonnes provisionally awarded on Wednesday because of high prices
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat, traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is March 16.

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY-SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 60,000 tonnes of barley and 60,000 tonnes of soymeal
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 72,200 tonnes of rice to be sourced from the United States and Vietnam
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

Argentina Rains Help Late Soybean, Corn Crops, Exchange Says

Rains over the last few days have improved water reserves for late-planted soybeans, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says in its weekly report.

• Exchange keeps its soy production estimate at 42m metric tons
• The rains also helped late corn plants that are entering key growth stages
  • Corn estimate kept at 51m tons
• Rains forecast for the days ahead “will keep benefitting” plants
• Most of the key Pampas growing region known as “zona nucleo” will have rainfall of 25-150mm (1-6 inches) during March 3-9, according to maps in a separate Grain Exchange weather report

Argentina Crop Traders to Subsidize Local Food: Export Group

Agricultural trading companies will put up to $25m a year into a fund to subsidize Argentina’s domestic flour and pasta industries, Gustavo Idigoras, president of cropdave@ crushing and export chamber Ciara-Cec, says in phone messages.

• Traders will put up to 1% of the FOB value of each metric ton of wheat and corn exported into the fund, whose money will then be distributed to local food suppliers
• Maximum annual volume to be subsidized will be 355,000 metric tons for flour and pasta, respectively

Argentina Intervenes in Wheat Market to Quash Food Inflation

Argentina will have a mechanism through Jan. 31, 2024, to guarantee wheat supplies to local millers and keep down prices at home of staples like flour and pasta, the Production Ministry says in an emailed statement.

• “The mechanism is a response to the need to decouple prices to protect the domestic market in a global context of war and high sustained wheat prices”
• Under the policy, described in the statement as a “financial mechanism” and a “fund,” 800,000 metric tons of wheat will be destined to domestic millers, it says without citing a time frame
• Gustavo Idiogras, head of crop export chamber Ciara, was at the meeting of government and industry representatives at which the policy was decided: statement

Palm Oil Reserves in Malaysia to Hit 14-Month Low on Poor Output

• Stockpiles slumped almost 13% in February, survey shows
• Crude palm oil output seen falling 4.8% to 1.19 million tons

Palm oil inventories in Malaysia probably dropped to a 14-month low as production slumped for a fourth straight month because of a chronic labor shortage in the world’s second-biggest grower.

Stockpiles declined 12.9% from a month earlier to 1.35 million tons in February, according to the median of 10 estimates in a survey of analysts, traders and plantation executives. That’s the smallest since December 2020 and a drop of almost 30% from February last year.

Production of crude palm oil likely fell 4.8% to 1.19 million tons, the lowest level in a year, the survey showed. Output has plummeted more than 30% from a high of 1.73 million in October as farmers in the Southeast Asian nation continue to grapple with a severe labor crunch that has tightened supply of the most-consumed cooking oil and boosted prices to record highs.

“Production is key to watch,” said Sathia Varqa, owner of Palm Oil Analytics in Singapore. Any recovery in output could interrupt the current price rally, with a meaningful rise in production likely in March, he said. The outcome of the Ukraine-Russia conflict is critical for the wider commodities market, he said.

“Palm oil can remain at these levels for a very long time,” Varqa said. High prices won’t affect demand in the short term as major vegetable oil buyers scramble to cover immediate requirements following the disruption of sunflower oil supplies from the Black Sea region. Russia and Ukraine account for about 80% of the world’s sunflower oil exports.

Palm oil exports from Malaysia probably rose 7.8% from a month earlier to 1.25 million tons in February, according to the survey.

More details from the survey:

• Stockpile estimates range from 1.25 million to 1.54 million tons, production from 1.15 million to 1.30 million tons.
• Exports vary from 1.08 million to 1.39 million tons.
• Imports seen rising to 120,000 tons from 70,596 tons in January.
• Local consumption range from 200,000 tons to 350,000 tons.

French Soft-Wheat Ratings Steady in Week to Feb. 28: AgriMer

The amount of France’s soft-wheat crop rated in good or very good condition held at 93% as of Feb. 28, unchanged from the prior week, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• NOTE: Showers should increase across Europe over the next two weeks, aiding wheat growth, according to Commodity Weather Group
• Spring barley was 36% planted, versus 47% at this time last year. Compares with 28% the prior week

 Brazil’s Fertilizer Stocks Are Enough For Three Months: Group

Brazil has fertilizer inventories to meet demand in the next three months, according to market information provided by the industry group Anda.

• Currently stocks are above the average in previous years, Anda says Thursday in a statement
• The group is chasing closely potash supplies as more than 2 million tons had been jeopardized before the war start due to sanctions to Belarus
• The supply of ammonium nitrate is also a concern as Brazil imports high volumes from Russia
• Imports may also be impacted by restrictions on sea transportation in the Black Sea
• Brazil imports around 9 million tons of crop nutrients from Eastern Europe, which corresponds by 25% of the nation’s fertilizer imports

NATO Sees High Risk of Damage to Shipping in Northwest Black Sea

“There is a high risk of collateral damage on civilian shipping in the northwestern part of the Black Sea,” NATO says in a notice on its website.

• Civilian shipping is “encouraged to exercise caution and be on high alert”
• Notes that a large number of navigation warnings have been issued, covering a number of warning areas, including mine danger areas