Global Ag News for Mar 31

TODAY—WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS—USDA GRAIN STOCKS, PROSPECTIVE PLANTING REPORTS—

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 2 cents; HRW up 2; HRS Wheat up 1, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 6; Soymeal up $1.00, and Soyoil up 60 points. 

For the month, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 57 cents; HRW down 73; HRS down 34; Corn is down 12 cents; Soybeans down 27 cents; Soymeal down $17.00, and; Soyoil up 10 points. Crushing margins are down 10 cents $0.56 (July); Oil share up 1% at 37%.

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 21 yuan in soybeans, down 26 in Corn, down 7 in Soymeal, down 272 in Soyoil, and down 182 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were down 31 ringgit at 3,543 (basis June) at midsession awaiting government data updates.

South America Weather Forecast: Conditions in Argentina are still expected to be favorable the next two weeks. In Brazil, last evening’s GFS model run still showed rain gradually returning to northern production areas Friday into next week which will be beneficial and lead to some increase of topsoil moisture.

U.S. Weather Forecast: Last evening’s GFS model run showed a couple of notable changes in week 1 of the outlook. There was a significant decrease of precipitation from the central Delta through the central Corn Belt and a significant increase of precipitation in the Northern Plains for the Monday into next Tuesday timeframe.

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 25,000 Corn; net sold 16,000 Soybeans; were net even in Soymeal, and; net sold 17,000 lots of Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net short 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 339,000 Corn; net long 116,000 Soybeans; net long 58,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 58,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,400 contracts; HRW Wheat down 420; Corn down 6,500; Soybeans up 1,600 contracts; Soymeal up 865, and; Soyoil up 4,000.

There were changes in registrations (HRS Wheat down 18)—Registrations total 40 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 60; Soyoil 1,118 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 1,013; HRW Wheat 1,291, and; HRS 235.

 Tender Activity—S. Korea bought 80,000t U.S./Canadian wheat—Thailand seeks 504,000t optional-origin feed wheat—S. Korea seeks 60,000t optional-origin soymeal—

Wire story reports price action in Chicago corn and soybean futures is often muted in the final lead-up to big government reports, but Tuesday marked soybeans’ steepest drop on USDA’s “planting intentions eve” since 2008. That indicates a large amount of uncertainty ahead of Wednesday’s reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and speculators are especially vulnerable as they have held on to historically bullish grain and oilseed bets since late last year. The end-of-March USDA data is known to be a big market mover.

The U.S. soybean crush likely fell to 4.952 million short tons in February, or 165.1 million bushels, according to the average forecast. Estimates ranged from 164.0 million bushels to 170.0 million bushels. The February crush would be down from 196.5 million bushels processed in January and 175.3 million bushels crushed in February 2020. It would also be the smallest monthly crush since September 2019, according to USDA data.

The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Thursday.

U.S. soyoil stocks as of Feb. 28 were estimated at 2.253 billion lbs, compared with 2.306 billion lbs at the end of January and 2.390 billion lbs at the end of February 2020. Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 2.225 billion to 2.275 billion lbs.

China corn futures fall 1.5% in early Wednesday trade – Reuters News

• China’s most-active corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell more than 1.5% in early trade on Wednesday to 2,610 yuan ($397.40) a tonne, before later recovering
• The decline this week comes as farmers sell off stocks ahead of planting a new crop and as processing and feed companies sit on ample supply
• On Monday, the contract posted its biggest drop in seven months
• Growing volumes of imported corn and substitutes are arriving at ports as well, while feed mills are increasingly switching to wheat and rice as alternatives
• The market is more and more aware that the so-called gap has miraculously disappeared, he referring to worries of a large corn deficit widely discussed in the latter half of last year

China’s WH Group sees higher hog prices after use of unapproved vaccines – Reuters

Use of illegal African swine fever vaccines by some Chinese hog producers last year reduced output of hogs and will support prices in 2021, an executive from leading pork processor WH Group said, spurring growth in imports of cheaper meats.

Global commodities trader Bunge bought soybeans from farms responsible for deforesting an area twice as large as Manhattan in Brazil’s Cerrado savanna in 2020, the most among the world’s major trading firms, a report said. Brazil’s SLC Agricola, which sells to Bunge and others, was the soy producer responsible for the most deforestation. The company cleared 101.5 square km (39 square miles) – according to an analysis by Chain Reaction Research.

Brazil’s food supply and statistics agency Conab has launched a survey to gauge the size of the country’s private stocks of rice, coffee and wheat, according to a statement on Tuesday, as Latin America’s largest economy grapples with rising food inflation. It will the first time that the government collects data on private wheat stocks based on information provided by both producers and millers, Conab said.

Ukrainian wheat export prices have fallen to five-month lows due to limited demand from exporters and a global downward trend, analysts at consultancy APK-Inform said. Asking prices for 12.5% protein soft milling wheat fell to $251-$256 per tonne FOB Black Sea as of March 30, down $23 from the beginning of the previous week. Low quality feed wheat cost $247-$252 per tonne FOB. APK-Inform also said a global downward trend had affected Ukrainian corn export prices which lost up to $6 a tonne over the past week and stood at $244-$251 CPT (carriage paid to) Black Sea.

At least 18% of Ukrainian farmers plan to reduce the area sown for corn in 2021 due to drought last summer, while 13% could increase acreage, a survey by agriculture consultancy APK-Inform showed on Tuesday. Corn is Ukraine’s leading grain export and the country is forecast to supply around 24 million tonnes of corn in the 2020/21 season. The survey showed that the 2021 area under corn could fall by 14% versus 2020 and regions affected by drought in summer 2020 predict the largest decline in the area. Severe drought in 2020 reduced Ukraine’s corn harvest by at least 5 million tonnes.

Euronext wheat extended losses on Tuesday to their lowest this year, as news of a tender by Algeria failed to offset selling pressure linked to sluggish demand, falling Black Sea export prices and favorable crop conditions. Positioning by investors, who have built up large long positions in grains in recent months, also weighed on the market ahead of widely followed U.S. planting and stocks estimates on Wednesday. May milling wheat, the last available contract for the 2020 harvest, settled down 1 euro, or 0.5%, at 209.75 euros a tonne. It earlier fell to 208.75 euros, its lowest since Dec. 30, but found chart support at that level.

Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the March 1-31 period are estimated up 28% on month at 1,277,255 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said.