Global Ag News For Mar 3
TODAY—WEEKLY EHANOL STATS—
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 5 cents, HRW down 2; HRS Wheat down 2, Corn is down 4 cents; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal down $1.00, and Soyoil up 15 points.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 163 yuan in soybeans, down 1 in Corn, down 2 in Soymeal, down 26 in Soyoil, and down 102 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 37 ringgit at 3,679 (basis May) on ideas higher inventories may take time to rebuild.
In Argentina, net drying will still continue in most of the region through Mar. 10. Crop stress will intensify as a result; though, erratic rain in the north and far east through Thursday will help temporarily slow the drying process, especially locally. Greater rain is still a possibility later in week 2 of the outlook. Last evening’s GFS model run removed rain in much of the nation Mar. 15 – 17.
Rain in Brazil will be beneficial for crop development; however, the south will be notably wet through Saturday leading to some fieldwork delays. Far southern and interior southern Brazil are likely to trend drier next week which will benefit fieldwork advancement.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 10,000 SRW Wheat; net bought 17,000 contracts of Corn; bought 15,000 Soybeans; bought 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 2,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 27,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 353,000 Corn; net long 170,000 Soybeans; net long 67,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 116,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 3,000 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,300; Corn down 13,700; Soybeans down 3,800 contracts; Soymeal down 1,600 lots, and; Soyoil up 4,600.
Deliveries were 1 Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil; 6 Rice; ZERO Corn; ZERO HRW Wheat; 3 Oats; ZERO Soybeans; ZERO SRW Wheat, and; ZERO HRS Wheat.
There were changes in registrations—(HRW Wheat down 400)—Registrations total 49 contracts for SRW Wheat; 121 Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 169; Soyoil 1,248 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 978; HRW Wheat 1,291, and; HRS 873.
Tender Activity—Philippines seek 145,000t optional-origin wheat—Japan bought 82,937t U.S./Canadian wheat—
US ethanol production is expected to rebound this week as the country recovers from the deep freeze that set in the Midwest in previous weeks. Analysts informally surveyed pegged production anywhere from 688,000 barrels a day to 890,000 barrels a day, which would be an improvement from 658,000 barrels a day reported last week by the EIA. Meanwhile, analysts surveyed believe ethanol inventories will drop in this week’s report, down to anywhere from 22.3M barrels to 22.7M barrels, from 22.8M barrels last week.
Wire story reports the United States for many decades had been known as the world’s breadbasket, leading the way in corn, soybean and wheat exports. But although trade volumes remain historically high, the country’s relative impact on global exports is smaller than ever. High grain and oilseed prices, increasing global demand and weaker currencies have all contributed to the decline in U.S. export dominance. In recent years, U.S. crop shortfalls between 2010 and 2012 permanently reduced the country’s market share and contributed to the rise of competing producers. Today, the United States exports just over a quarter of the world’s corn, wheat and soybeans, compared with more than half some 30 years ago. The country also grows about a quarter of those global crops, a smaller portion than in previous decades, though the decline is much less extreme versus that of exports.
While US farmers see current market conditions as supportive for agriculture, that optimism is increasingly starting to fade looking toward the next marketing year. According to a survey conducted jointly by Purdue University and the CME Group, an index tracking farmers’ future expectations has dropped 20% since hitting a high in October. “Concerns about possible policy changes affecting agriculture, and eroding confidence in future growth in ag trade, continue to weigh on producers’ future expectations. However, farmers view near-term conditions as supportive for agriculture, and land values are seen as on the rise.
Senator Criticizes House Leaders’ Move to Cut Ag Disaster From Coronavirus Aid Bill. In the $1.9 trillion aid package that passed the House early Saturday, House leaders stripped a provision that would provide aid for farmers suffering from crop losses in 2020. Grassley said he will push fellow senators to reinstate the agricultural-disaster language in the bill. House Democratic leaders stripped a provision from the latest aid package that would have helped farmers suffering from crop losses — including losses due to high winds or derechos — before the House held its early Saturday vote on coronavirus aid relief.
CHINA’S DALIAN SOYBEAN FUTURES GAIN MORE THAN 3% TO RECORD HIGH ON WEDNESDAY TRADE
An outbreak of African swine fever has been confirmed in piglets being illegally transported through Funing county in China’s southwestern province of Yunnan, the farm ministry said. The case comes amid growing concern that a severe wave of disease in recent months has hit China’s hog herd.
Post projects Argentine 2020/21 soybean production at 47.5 million tons, 500,000 tons below USDA official. 2020/21 sunflowerseed production is lowered to 2.65 million tons, 250,000 tons below USDA official.
Argentina has seen a strong uptick in foreign currency inflows on the back of high global grains prices, reducing the risk of a sharp near-term devaluation of the peso currency and giving the government breathing room to slow pedal economic reforms. The South American country, a major producer of soy, corn and wheat, has acted to protect the peso and foreign reserves with strict capital controls since a market crash in 2019. That had stoked fears of a sudden correction. However, with bumper global grain prices easing the FX situation and the central bank reining in its funding of the Treasury, the government has signaled a slower depreciation of the peso ahead, calming investor worries.
Benchmark wheat futures on Euronext edged higher on Monday, supported by a rebound in U.S. prices and tight short-term availability in Europe. May milling wheat settled up 1.75 euros, or 0.8%, at 232.00 euros ($280.23) a tonne. The contract held below a one-month high of 233.75 euros touched last week. Front-month March futures, which expire next week, fell 2% to 245.00 euros a tonne, retreating from Monday’s peak of 252.75 euros that was a highest front-month price since May 2013.
Slowdown of rainfall maintains our 2020/21 Indonesia palm oil production estimates at 46.0 [43.3-59.7] million tons. Flooding woes were gradually eased in most of the key palm oil producing provinces, beneficial for harvest activities and logistics.
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