Global Ag News for Mar 29.23

TOP HEADLINES

Crop Trader Cargill Will Stop Shipping Russia Grain, RBC Reports

Cargill Inc. will stop exporting grains from Russia in the coming agriculture year, business newspaper RBC reported, citing a letter from the commodities trader sent to Deputy Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut.

Russia’s Agriculture Ministry confirmed it received a notification from Cargill about the termination of grain shipments from Russia, state-owned news agency Tass reported on Wednesday. A representative for Cargill couldn’t immediately comment on the matter.

The termination of Cargill’s export activities in the Russian market will not affect the volume of domestic grain supplies, Tass cited the ministry as saying. Cargill’s assets related to the shipments of grains will continue to function regardless of who manages them, it said, adding that any gaps in the market will be promptly filled by Russian players.

Cargill promised the Russian ministry that shipments this agricultural season will fully meet the previously approved quota, according to RBC.

Cargill’s decision comes even after its former Chief Executive Officer David MacLennan said in December that the company would stick by its decision to keep operating in Russia. Cargill, owned by one of the richest families in the U.S., has shipped substantial volumes of Russian grain since the war began.

Meanwhile, Cargill’s Russian subsidiary will also start to review its grain export assets in the country, according to RBC.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 3/4 in SRW, up 7 1/4 in HRW, up 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans down 1 1/4; Soymeal up $0.03; Soyoil down 0.06.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 17 in SRW, up 31 3/4 in HRW, up 30 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/2; Soybeans up 38 1/4; Soymeal up $1.31; Soyoil up 1.73.

For the month to date wheat prices are unchanged in SRW, up 67 in HRW, up 21 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 17 1/4; Soybeans down 12 1/2; Soymeal down $8.90; Soyoil down 5.05.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 10.9% in SRW, down 0.9% in HRW, down 5.4% in HRS; Corn is down 4.6%; Soybeans down 3.5%; Soymeal down 4.2%; Soyoil down 13.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 23) Soybeans down 28 yuan; Soymeal up 42; Soyoil up 94; Palm oil up 100; Corn up 21 -Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 22 ringgit (+0.60%) at 3709.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,537 SRW Wheat contracts; 23 Oats; 73 Corn; 177 Soybeans; 613 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 41 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 28 were: SRW Wheat down 3,921 contracts, HRW Wheat down 15, Corn down 8,208, Soybeans up 1,261, Soymeal up 2,471, Soyoil up 3,066.

Northern Plains Forecast: Some occasional bands of snow will move through the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains this week, with some additions to the snowpack in South Dakota later in the week. Cold temperatures will limit melting for yet another week and the risk of significant flooding is increasing for when temperatures turn higher, perhaps abruptly.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: A couple of frosty mornings have occurred in the Central and Southern Plains early this week, with temperatures below freezing down into the Texas Panhandle. This week will feature a larger storm that builds for late Thursday into Friday. Northern and eastern areas again look to have the best chance for precipitation while strong winds develop elsewhere, sapping soil moisture. The outlook for the southwestern Plains remains grim.

Midwest Forecast: A couple of little systems and disturbances will bring some areas of showers through the Midwest over the next few days, followed by another stronger storm for the end of the week. Another round of heavy precipitation strong winds, and a band of snow across the north is expected as we turn the calendar to April. The wetter conditions across a lot of the region are causing a slow start to fieldwork.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Isolated showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Isolated showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Isolated shower Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

The player sheet for 3/28 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 500 corn, buyers of 12,000 soybeans, buyers of 6,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed exporters sold 136,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to China for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year that began Sept. 1, 2022.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO bought some 695,000 tonnes of milling wheat in an international tender, filling the entire volume it had tendered for.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer has purchased about 60,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender, traders said.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 70,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from Argentina or Brazil.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 121,800 tonnes of rice.

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending March 24 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.001m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 25.992m bbl vs 26.188m a week ago

Indonesia to Set April 1-15 CPO Reference Price at $898.29/Ton

Govt. to set crude palm oil reference price at $898.29/ton for April 1-15, lower than the $911.41/ton set for the last two weeks of March, says Musdhalifah Machmud, deputy minister for food and agribusiness at the coordinating ministry for economic affairs in a text message.

• The reference price would keep CPO export tax at $74/ton during the period, and the additional levy at $95/ton
• Trade ministry will issue official decree for the reference price

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rise 8.5% Y/y While Corn Imports Surge 69%

The European Union’s soft-wheat exports for the season that began July 1 reached 22.7m tons by March 26, compared with 20.9m tons a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Morocco (3.57m tons), Algeria (3.28m tons) and Nigeria (1.92m tons)
• EU barley exports were 4.43m tons, compared with 6.29m tons
• Corn imports were 20.4m tons, against 12.1m tons
• NOTE: Commission says some export figures for Germany may be inaccurate due to its recent shift to a new declaration system and Italy import data is only available through January

India Wheat Export Restrictions to Continue: State-run Food Corp

The world’s second-biggest wheat grower is expected to continue its ban on shipments, Ashok Meena, chairmen of Food Corp. of India said on Tuesday.

• As long as the country is uncomfortable with domestic wheat supplies, the export ban will continue, Meena told reporters in New Delhi
• Wheat output in India seen rising to record 112m tons in 2022-23
  • Recent rains in some growing areas could affect the quality of the grain, but production is expected to meet the forecast
• The agency has started procuring wheat from the new crop: Meena
  • Food Corp. has sold about 3.4m tons of wheat in open market and to states so far in 2023
  • Wholesale wheat prices in the country have fallen to 22-23 rupees per kg now from 30 rupees in January following open market sales: Meena

Brazil Soymeal Exports Seen Reaching 1.757 Million Tns In March Versus 1.787 Million Tns Forecast In Previous Week – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 15.197 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 15.388 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING UP TO 836,428 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS UP TO 898,632 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 591,031 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 727,815 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.757 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 1.787 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

MGEX Spring Wheat Stocks Down 23.3% From Year Ago: March 26

Stocks of hard spring wheat stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin warehouses fell y/y to 15.424m bushels in the week ending March 26, according to the Minneapolis Grain Exchange’s weekly report.

• Compared to the previous week, stockpiles fell by 99k bu
• Stockpiles in Duluth/Superior warehouses down 80k bu w/w

Rainfall deficits cut European wheat production outlook – Refinitiv Commodities Research

2023/24 EU-27 + UK WHEAT PRODUCTION: 154.1 [146.4-161.8] MILLION TONS, DOWN 1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Water shortages in southern and south-western Europe cut local yields and reduce the 2023/24 EU-27 + UK wheat production outlook by 1.4% to 154.1 [146.4-161.8] million tons. Soft and durum wheat production estimates are now placed at 146.3 million tons and 7.8 million tons, respectively. Although winter crops started spring in fair-to-good conditions across Europe, more rainfall is needed to guarantee good conditions for further crop development.

March featured mostly warm weather across Europe with the exception of Scandinavia where average temperatures locally dropped to minus 9 °C, but snow cover protected crops from any potential damage. In northern Europe, crops are reported to still be in the hardened stage, hence have good cold resistance. Above average warmth in rest of Europe has induced de-hardening that leave crops vulnerable in case of any sudden cold spells. According to our short-term weather forecast a cold front is likely to pass through Europe during the next 7-10 days, but average temperatures will not drop to sub-zero values, leaving crops with little to no impacts. Refinitiv’s long-term weather outlook for April as well as the latest EC seasonal model predict overall warmth across Europe with potential limited cool zones over Western Europe.

Precipitation-wise, a mixed pattern was observed across the continent during past few weeks. Abundant rainfall that was observed locally in Italy, Germany, France slightly elevated soil moisture but it is still below normal levels and additional rainfall is necessary to meet crop water demands during spring season. In the United Kingdom (UK) soil moisture levels dropped from mid-January, but elevated again with March rains and now are close to average. Most of southern Europe is experiencing rainfall deficits with soil moisture levels in Greece, Bulgaria, or Spain at 6-year lows. Such conditions are raising concerns around drought risk and future yield potential. South-western Europe will remain dry in the upcoming week but Refinitiv’s long-term weather outlook for April supports abundant rainfall across all of Europe that should replenish soil moisture, especially needed in those southern regions.

Russia to Order 61 Ships for Grain Export: Interfax

Russian state company Rosagroleasing is ordering projects to build as many as 61 of the largest bulk ships for grain export, general director Pavel Kosov said, according to Interfax.

• Vessels expected to have volume of 40k-60k tons
• Over next 2-3 years lead ships will be launched; the series will be launched after that
  • NOTE: Time frame for all 61 ships wasn’t immediately clear
• Demand for such ships is very high, Kosov said; company is developing mechanisms for financing and constructing ships with Russia’s ministry of agriculture
• NOTE: Some Russian grain shippers have faced problems with logistics and financing fueled by sanctions, though food is not sanctioned

River barges break loose on Ohio River, pinned against McAlpine Dam

Several river barges broke loose from a tow boat on the Ohio River in Louisville, Kentucky, on Tuesday, with three barges pinned against the lower McAlpine Dam site, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said in a statement.

The lock chambers at the McAlpine Locks and Dam – on the Ohio River at mile 606.8 – were closed to river traffic due to the “navigation accident, which occurred approximately at 2 a.m. EDT” Tuesday, the Army Corps said.

“Three barges are pinned against the lower dam site, one barge is pinned against the Louisville and Indiana bridge pier and all other barges were recovered by other vessels in the local area,” according to the statement.

No injuries were reported and all personnel were accounted for, said the Army Corps, which noted it is working with the U.S. Coast Guard, navigation industry and marine surveyors on the recovery effort.

The Army Corps said the locks will remain closed until the barges on the dam are stabilized.

Officials with the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet and the U.S. Army Corps could not immediately be reached for comment.

 

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