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Global Ag News for Mar 28.22

Wheat prices overnight are down 41 in SRW, down 35 3/4 in HRW, down 30 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 11 3/4; Soybeans down 16 1/2; Soymeal down $0.47; Soyoil down 0.72.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 39 1/4 in SRW, down 22 1/4 in HRW, down 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 11 1/2; Soybeans up 7 3/4; Soymeal up $0.39; Soyoil up 0.36.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 127 1/4 in SRW, up 122 in HRW, up 80 in HRS; Corn is up 51 1/2; Soybeans up 57; Soymeal up $36.90; Soyoil up 1.51. Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 40% in SRW, up 36% in HRW, up 11% in HRS; Corn is up 26%; Soybeans up 28%; Soymeal up 18%; Soyoil up 32%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans down 20 yuan; Soymeal down 75; Soyoil up 50; Palm oil up 114; Corn down 11 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 57 ringgit (-0.95%) at 5970.

There were changes in registrations (-49 Soybeans). Registration total: 2,185 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 15 Corn; 198 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 154 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 25 were: SRW Wheat down 487 contracts, HRW Wheat up 983, Corn down 13,796, Soybeans down 319, Soymeal up 2,523, Soyoil down 697.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to above normal west and below normal east Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, above normal west and near to below normal east Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Monday and near to above normal Tuesday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures below to well below normal Monday-Tuesday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Sunday.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Isolated showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers east Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday night-Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

The player sheet for 3/25 had funds: net buyers of 6,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 4,500 corn, buyers of 4,500 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.
  • CORN SALE: Turkish grain board TMO provisionally bought about 175,000 tonnes of corn on Friday in a tender for supplies already at warehouses in Turkey

PENDING TENDERS

  • FEED GRAIN TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, 60,000 tonnes of feed corn and 60,000 tonnes of soymeal
  • SOYOIL TENDER: Iran’s state purchasing agency GTC has issued an international tender to purchase about 30,000 tonnes of soyoil
  • WHEAT TENDER: Iraq’s state grains buyer has extended the deadline for the validity of price offers in a tender to buy a nominal 50,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat
  • BARLEY TENDER: A buyer in Qatar has issued a tender to buy an estimated 105,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
  • WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat

U.S. Cattle on Feed Rose to 12.16M Head on March 1

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Dollar depreciation and higher supply press down values in BR

The US dollar depreciation against the Real, the nearness of the end of the soybean harvesting in relevant areas in Brazil, the beginning of the harvesting in Argentina and expectations for a larger soybean area in the United States pressed down the export’s premiums and the quotations of soybean and its by-products in Brazil in the last days. Abroad, values are fluctuating widely.

Between March 17 – 24, the American currency dropped by a steep 4.2%, to BRL 4.827 on Thursday, 24. This scenario makes the commodities from the USA more attractive to importers. Thus, liquidity has been lower at Brazilian ports this week compared to that last week.

In the same period, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index Paranaguá decreased by a steep 3.3%, to BRL 197.14 (USD 40.84) per 60-kilo bag on Thursday (24). At the port of Santos (SP), values dropped by 3.7%, to BRL 196.08/bag. At the port of Rio Grande (RS), quotatiosn decreased by a steep 5.1%, to BRL 201.40/bag, and at the port of São Francisco (SC), by 3%, to BRL 199.36/bag.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index Paraná for soybean dropped by 3.7%, to BRL 192.38 (USD 39.85)/60-kilo bag on Thursday. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices decreased by 3.1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and by 3% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

Agents consulted by Cepea reported that, amid higher freight costs, local deals have been more interesting than closing deals at ports. However, agents from processors are not buying large volumes, expecting prices to drop in April.

Although production has decreased by 41.66% in southern Brazil compared to that last season, the remaining regions of the country are expected to harvest higher volumes. Conab estimates the output from southeastern BR to grow by 3.54%; from the central-western region, by 1.65%; from northern BR, by 5.56%; and from northeastern BR, by 5.34%.

Still according to Conab, 70.6% of Brazilian soybean crops had been harvested by March 19, more than the 60.1% from the same period last season.

Some farmers have also been unwilling to sell the product, opting for stocking the soybean harvested rather than selling it in the spot market. Thus, agents from cooperatives and cereal factories reported lack of room to stock the beans, which may lead famers to fix new volumes for the short term.

CORN/CEPEA: Demand weakens in BR, and Index drops below BRL 100/bag

After hitting BRL 103.90 per 60-kilo bag on March 14 and setting a new nominal record in the series of Cepea, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn (Campinas, SP) began to drop on the following days, now being under BRL 100/bag. On Thursday, 24, this Index closed at BRL 99.2/bag, 4.2% down from that on the previous Thursday. However, between Feb. 25 and Mar. 24, it increased by 1.9%.

Pressure comes majorly from the decrease in the demand for corn. Besides, some farmers have been more willing to lower asking prices, either to take advantage of the current price levels or due to cash flow needs. Other farmers need to sell the summer crop, which is beginning to step up in southeastern BR.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, the prices paid to corn farmers (over-the-counter market) decreased by 4.3; in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values dropped by 3.3%.

At ports, after the high price rises in early March, values dropped by 5.6% in Paranaguá (PR) between March 17 and 24, to BRL 102.27 per 60-kilo bag on Thursday. In general, the interest of exporters in new purchases has been lower since late last week – these agents seem to have bought enough corn for the month of March and early April.

Thus, deals have been sporadic at ports, and exports have been lower than that in the same period last year. According to data from Secex, this month, Brazil has exported only 12 thousand tons of corn, much less than the 292 thousand tons shipped in Mar/21. As for imports, which were high last season, they have also been low. According to Secex, this month, Brazil has imported 36 thousand tons of corn, against 113 thousand tons in Mar/21.

CROPS – Farmers have been focused on sowing the second crop in Brazil, for which expectations are high, since activities are taking place within the ideal period and the weather has been favorable to crops development in all Brazilian regions.

In Mato Grosso, data from Imea released earlier this week showed that 99.34% of the state area has been sown. In Paraná, 94% of the summer crop has been harvested and 94% of the second crop has been sown, according to data from Seab/Deral released on March 21. In Mato Grosso do Sul, 82.3% of the state area has been sown, according to Famasul. In Rio Grande do Sul, 72% of crops had been harvested by March 24.

According to Conab, 41.6% of the national summer crop has been harvested, and 94.7% of the second crop has been sown.

Ukraine 2022 sunseed area seen falling 28% due to war

The area sown to sunflower in Ukraine is likely to fall to 4.81 million hectares in 2022 from 6.66 million hectares in 2021 due to hostilities in many regions, the agriculture ministry said on Friday.

Ukraine is the world’s largest sunflower seed grower and sunflower oil exporter.

The ministry gave no 2022 sunseed harvest forecast, while APK-Inform consultancy this week said the harvest could decrease by 42% to 9.6 million tonnes due to a sharp decrease in sowing areas following Russia’s invasion.

The ministry has said it will urge farmers to sow more cereals this year at the expense of corn and sunseed as stocks of those commodities are very high.

The ministry said half of the regions had already started the 2022 spring sowing.

It gave no 2022 grain harvest forecast. APK-Inform says the output could fall 54.6% to 38.9 million tonnes in 2022.

Fertilizer Price Index at Record as Ukraine War Tightens Supply

With the Russia-Ukraine war in its fifth week, urea and phosphate keep climbing in New Orleans (NOLA), Brazil, Europe and the Middle East. Tampa ammonia closed at a record $1,625 a metric ton (mt) for April, up 43% from March. Potash prices jumped in NOLA and Brazil to almost 2x last month’s Chinese annual contract.

Fertilizer Costs Climb Led by Ammonia

Driven by production outages and tight global supply, Tampa ammonia surged to a record $1,625 a metric ton for April, up a full $490 from the previous record of $1,135/mt in March and February. Ammonia prices jumped in Europe, as did spring ammonia pricing in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. Urea prices continued to climb at NOLA and inland, and a big pricing jump is expected in India’s next urea tender due to the absence of Chinese and Russian tons in the market.

Diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices at NOLA surged to $980-$1,010 a short ton (st), up $30-$40 from last week, with the market trading above the $1,000 level for the first time since 2008. A hike in phosphate pricing was also reported in the western U.S. and western Canada, while potash prices rose $10-$20/st at NOLA and inland.

Crude Palm Oil Prices to Average 4,250 Ringgit/Ton in 2022: MPOB

Average local price of crude palm oil seen dropping to 4,250 ringgit a ton this year, from 4,407 ringgit in 2021, according to Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir, director general of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

  • NOTE: That’s an upward revision from the Jan. forecast of 3,800 ringgit/ton
  • Factors influencing prices include the slow recovery in production of palm oil and other major vegetable oils, as well as strong palm oil export demand, Ahmad Parveez said in presentation slides prepared for an online industry conference Monday
  • MPOB forecasts for 2022:
    • Malaysian palm oil output seen at 19m tons this year, +4.9% y/y
    • Palm oil exports likely at 17m tons, +9.2% y/y
    • Export revenue seen at 110b ringgit, +1.4% y/y; vs 95b est. in Jan
    • End-2022 stockpiles expected at 1.95m tons, +21% y/y

Palm Oil Prices to Trade at 5,700-6,300 Ringgit Until May: MPOC

Palm oil prices will likely trade between 5,700 and 6,300 ringgit a ton until May if the war in Ukraine is not resolved soon, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Council CEO Wan Aishah Wan Hamid.

  • The conflict remains the “single biggest factor” for prices, she said in presentation slides prepared for a seminar on Monday
  • Over the longer term, lower-than-expected supplies, higher demand, volatility in crude oil and geopolitical tensions will drive prices
  • Vegetable oils may face a price correction in late 3Q; palm oil will likely fall to 4,500-5,500 ringgit/ton
  • Although more palm oil will be available from Indonesia as the top grower has repealed its exports curbs and replaced it with a higher export duty structure, the country’s products will be more expensive than Malaysia
  • Malaysian palm oil production seen rising to 18.9 million tons this year from 18.1 million in 2021, with foreign workers expected to arrive in 2Q
  • Indonesian crude palm oil output may climb to 47.1 million tons from 45.2 million year earlier
  • Global palm oil output forecast at 79.5 million tons in 2022, up from 76.4 million tons a year ago
    • Consumption seen at 79.8m tons vs 76.5m tons a year ago; end-2022 stocks may drop to 12.3m tons vs 12.7m tons
  • Stocks usage ratio of global oils and fats seen at 8.89% in 2022, from 9.34% last year

Indonesians Urged Against Fried Food as Cooking Oil Prices Rise

  • Ruling party holds food fair for recipes using no cooking oil
  • Government has set out subsidies to address edible oil prices

The party backing President Joko Widodo is urging Indonesians to start boiling, steaming and roasting food instead of frying them as the price of edible oil surges.

“The food today must showcase the cook’s creativity, use local ingredients and can’t use any cooking oil,” said Wiryanti Sukamdani, an official at Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDIP, at a Monday food fair to showcase cooking methods without oil. PDIP is the largest party in parliament.

Party leader Megawati Sukarnoputri was met with public backlash earlier this month when she questioned why Indonesians were queuing for oil and whether all they did was fry their food all day.

Cooking Oils Hit New All-Time High as Indonesia Tightens Exports

Indonesia has announced 7.28 trillion rupiah ($507 million) of subsidies and raised export levy for palm oil to safeguard local supply and stabilize cooking oil prices. Food costs are becoming a key political issue as the country that’s home to the world’s largest Muslim population heads into the fasting month of Ramadan, when people break their daily fast with feasts and celebration.

“Once I asked my father, what is the most important thing in politics? And he easily said, ‘The stomach must be full,”’ Megawati said in a Monday speech, referring to the country’s first president Sukarno.

Malaysia March 1-25 Palm Oil Exports -4.84% M/m: Intertek

 Malaysia March 1-25 Palm Oil Exports to EU 235,330 Tons: SGS

  • EU imported 235,330 tons; -28.9% m/m
  • India imported 151,697 tons; -6.3% m/m
  • China imported 138,550 tons; +48.8% m/m

 Russia’s Steppe Maintains Wheat Area; Expands Niche Crop Sowing

Major Russian agricultural producer Steppe is keeping the area of wheat crops at last year’s level, while expanding plantings of “highly profitable niche crops,” it said in a statement.

  • Says spring sowing has started; sunflowers and beets are being planted in Krasnodar
  • Says expanding niche crop area to take into account market conditions, but didn’t specify which crops
  • Winter crops are in good condition
  • CEO Andrey Neduzhko said necessary amount of fertilizers and pesticides were bought last year, and machinery was updated

Fertilizer Price Index at Record as Ukraine War Tightens Supply

With the Russia-Ukraine war in its fifth week, urea and phosphate keep climbing in New Orleans (NOLA), Brazil, Europe and the Middle East. Tampa ammonia closed at a record $1,625 a metric ton (mt) for April, up 43% from March. Potash prices jumped in NOLA and Brazil to almost 2x last month’s Chinese annual contract.

Fertilizer Costs Climb Led by Ammonia in Friday Findings

Driven by production outages and tight global supply, Tampa ammonia surged to a record $1,625 a metric ton for April, up a full $490 from the previous record of $1,135/mt in March and February. Ammonia prices jumped in Europe, as did spring ammonia pricing in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. Urea prices continued to climb at NOLA and inland, and a big pricing jump is expected in India’s next urea tender due to the absence of Chinese and Russian tons in the market.

Diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices at NOLA surged to $980-$1,010 a short ton (st), up $30-$40 from last week, with the market trading above the $1,000 level for the first time since 2008. A hike in phosphate pricing was also reported in the western U.S. and western Canada, while potash prices rose $10-$20/st at NOLA and inland.

U.S. Beef Production Up 2.2% This Week, Pork Down

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