Global Ag News for Mar 22.22

Wheat prices overnight are up 37 1/2 in SRW, up 33 1/2 in HRW, up 27 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 11; Soymeal down $0.28; Soyoil up 0.58.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 93 in SRW, up 76 1/4 in HRW, up 55 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 14 3/4; Soybeans up 34; Soymeal up $0.15; Soyoil up 2.00. For the month to date wheat prices are up 222 3/4 in SRW, up 193 3/4 in HRW, up 122 in HRS; Corn is up 65 3/4; Soybeans up 65 1/4; Soymeal up $32.20; Soyoil up 1.77.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 50% in SRW, up 43% in HRW, up 14% in HRS; Corn is up 28%; Soybeans up 28%; Soymeal up 16%; Soyoil up 32%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans up 51 yuan; Soymeal up 92; Soyoil up 66; Palm oil up 250; Corn up 15 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 183 ringgit (+3.17%) at 5957.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,185 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 15 Corn; 247 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 154 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 21 were: SRW Wheat up 4,127 contracts, HRW Wheat up 553, Corn up 17,413, Soybeans up 208, Soymeal up 3,679, Soyoil up 1,852.

Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers Monday night-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal west and below normal east Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Isolated showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

The player sheet for 3/21 had funds: net buyers of 15,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 11,000 corn, buyers of 13,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 4,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCOPIA) purchased about 60,000 tonnes of corn expected to be sourced from the United States in a private deal late last week without an international tender being issued, European traders said on Monday.
• WHEAT SALE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought about 45,000 tonnes of milling wheat expected to be sourced from the United States in a purchase on Friday
• RICE SALE: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp purchased an estimated 26,791 tonnes of rice to be sourced from Vietnam in an international tender which closed in late February
• WHEAT SALE: Iran’s state Government Trading Corporation (GTC) is believed to have purchased milling wheat in a tender that closed last week
• FEED WHEAT SALE: Two importer groups in the Philippines bought an unknown volume of animal feed wheat from Australia and India in international tenders which closed late last week
• WHEAT TENDERS: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued international tenders to purchase a total 455,000 tonnes of milling wheat

PENDING TENDERS

• FEED GRAIN TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, 60,000 tonnes of feed corn and 60,000 tonnes of soymeal
• SOYOIL TENDER: Iran’s state purchasing agency GTC has issued an international tender to purchase about 30,000 tonnes of soyoil
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• VEGOIL TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Friday it was seeking vegetable oils in an international purchasing tender for arrival May 5-25, 2022. The deadline for offers is March 22.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: A buyer in Qatar has issued a tender to buy an estimated 105,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

U.S. Inspected 1.466m Tons of Corn for Export, 545k of Soybean

Winter Wheat Conditions Improve in Kansas, Slip in Okla.

Ukraine Corn, Sunflower Plantings to Plunge This Year: UAC

Ukraine may plant 3.9m to 4m hectares for the 2022 season, down about 29% versus last year, analyst UkrAgroConsult said in an emailed report.

• Sunflower area seen falling to 3.5m to 4m hectares, down about 48%
• Barley area at 1.75m to 1.8m hectares, down about 29%
• Wheat area at 6.3m to 6.4m hectares, down about 11%
• Rapeseed and soybean areas to also fall more than 10%
• The greatest risks are for spring grains and cereals, while winter-crops could also be physically damaged in war-affected areas or see yields and quality suffer
• Farmers are lacking fuel, seeds, fertilizer and labor
  • Also facing damage to agricultural equipment, logistics difficulties and lack of financial resources

Ukraine’s Crop Exports Seen at a Fraction of Normal Levels: UAC

Ukraine can export about 300k to 400k tons of crops monthly in the current situation, analyst UkrAgroConsult said in an emailed note, citing information from the government.

• That’s “8-10 times less than export through seaports,” it said
• Grain may be delivered by rail across land borders to Romania, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia
• Several companies have received export licenses from the government
  • Licenses for about 150k tons of wheat and 250k-300k tons of corn granted, UAC says, citing trader estimates
• If military actions stopped, Ukraine could restore pre-war levels of exports through seaports within about three weeks

Brazil 2021-22 Soy Harvest 69% Done as of March 17: AgRural

Compares with 64% a week earlier and 59% a year before, according to data compiled by consulting firm AgRural.

• The works are practically finished in Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul states and are approaching the final stage in Goias, Sao Paulo and Rondonia states
• Center-south’s 2nd corn planting was 98% complete as of March 17, compared with 90% a year earlier
• 2021/22 summer corn harvest is 58% complete versus 47% a year before

Argentina Hikes Tax on Exports of Soy Meal/Oil to 33% >From 31%

The Argentine government is temporarily suspending the 2ppt differential between unprocessed soybeans and soy meal/oil, according to an Agriculture Ministry statement dated March 19.

• Soy meal and soy oil shipments will now be charged 33%, the same as unprocessed beans
• Argentina re-opened the export register for meal/oil on Monday after closing it last week
• Ministry also increased the export quota for Argentina’s next wheat crop as it looks to tap the global grain rally
  • It authorized 8m metric tons on top of the 2m from December
  • Says 2022-23 wheat production could reach a record 25m tons
  • Confirms the creation of a subsidy fund to stabilize domestic wheat prices

Brazil Cuts Ethanol Tax, Sees BRL0.20 Impact on Gasoline Prices

Brazil’s government is cutting to zero import taxes on ethanol and six items of the basic food basket until December, which should impact tax collections by around 1b reais, Economy Ministry said in press conference.

• Chosen items are the ones weighing the most on inflation: coffee, margarine, cheese, pasta, sugar and soy oil
  • Measure is part of the govt’s efforts to curb inflation, said Deputy Economy Ministry, Marcelo Guaranys
• Cut in ethanol import tax is expected to lower gasoline prices by 0.20 real per liter, according to Foreign Trade secretary Lucas Ferraz
• Govt also announced a further reduction of 10% in the tax rate on imports of capital goods and computers, bringing the overall tax cut to 20%
• New credit measures will soon be announced, Guaranys added

Argentina Wheat Subsidy to Hold Domestic Prices Near Feb. Value

Argentina’s stabilization fund for wheat aims to subsidize the price for producers back to February levels, Production Minister Matias Kulfastold reporters Monday.

• Kulfas cited Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the food price surge
• He called on wheat industry sector in Argentina to respect relative prices
• Government seeing “speculative” food price increases, to as much as 20% on some items in the past few days, Kulfas said
  • Govt to discuss with companies from the food sector, including retail and wholesale firms, to determine who is responsible for “unjustified” price increases
• Government aims to bring other food prices back to levels seen around March 8-10th, he added, the date for increases to take effect for products that are part of the price controls program Precios Cuidados

EU’s MARS Sees Barley Yields 4% Lower in 2022; Soft-Wheat Steady

The bloc’s soft-wheat yields are expected to stay steady at 6.02 tons/hectare this year, the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said in a report on Monday.

• “Winter crops entered spring in fair to good condition in most of Europe”
• Dry weather in south-western Europe remains of concern
• Drought in Maghreb region “severely impacted” yield potential and caused crop failure in parts of Morocco
• Rain surplus in European Russia is favorable for crops

 Crop Nutrient-Maker Mosaic Sees Rail Delays Through End of March

Mosaic Co., a top global supplier of crop nutrients, said rail delays in Canada and central Florida persisted in the first two months of the year and are likely to continue through the end of the first quarter.

• Potash shipments are expected to be further impacted by the Canadian Pacific Railway work stoppage, it said in a statement on sales in the first two months of the year.
• As a result, sales volumes for the first quarter are now likely to be at or near the low end of previous guidance ranges for both potash and phosphates, it said.
• Potash sales in the first two months of the year totaled 1.05 million tons, down from 1.24 million tons a year earlier, while phosphate sales were 999,000 tons versus 1.4 million tons.

Ukraine War Sours Fertilizer Bets of Brazil Farmers Seeking Cuts

• StoneX says 72% of farmers haven’t bought inputs for September
• Situation could mean lower yields amid global food inflation

EU to Propose Using 500-Million-Euro Crisis Fund for Farmers

The European Union will for the first time tap an agricultural crisis fund to cushion the impact of the ongoing war in Ukraine on food producers facing high energy prices and shortages of some key products.

The European Commission on Wednesday will propose using the fund’s nearly 500 million euros ($551 million) to support European farmers as part of a package to tackle the fallout of the invasion on the agricultural sector and to ensure food security in the bloc, an EU official said.

EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowskisaid last week that the EU is also working on measures that would allow fallow land to be used to grow protein crops to avert a scarcity of feed, and measures to support the pork industry. Details will be announced by March 24th.

EU agriculture ministers on Monday discussed measures to support farmers suffering significant impacts of Russia’s invasion on inputs like natural gas, fertilizers, and animal feed. The ministers also undertook to look at other requests including fertilizer autonomy.

“We depend far too much on imports from Russia and Belarus in the fertilizer sector,” French Agriculture Minister Julien Denormandie said.

They spoke with their Ukrainian counterpart Roman Leshchenko and agreed to offer help to the country’s food sector on inputs and financing, Denormandie said, adding that Leshchenko had to end the meeting earlier than planned due to an air raid siren where he was speaking.

 

Indonesia Says Food Supplies Sufficient for Ramadan This Year

Indonesia will still have a surplus of around 9.8m tons in rice stockpiles at the end of May even with the traditionally heavy consumption during the fasting month of Ramadan and Eid festivities, according to Agriculture Minister Syahrul Yasin Limpo.

• NOTE: This year’s Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr will run from April to May
• Overall rice production may reach 31.8m tons in 2022 and stockpiles may stand at around 7.5m by year-end, Limpo told lawmakers in a hearing on Tuesday
• Other estimates for this year:
  • White sugar at 2.24m tons, demand at 3.22m tons; import plan 1.04m tons; year-end stockpiles ~800,000 tons
  • Soybean at 200,315 tons, demand at 2.98m tons; import plan 2.84m tons
  • Beef meat at 509,546 tons, demand at 706,387 tons; import plan 193,223 tons
  • Corn at 16.27m tons, demand at 14.13m tons