Global Ag News For Mar 2
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 3 cents, HRW up 5; HRS Wheat up 4, Corn is down 4 cents; Soybeans down 9; Soymeal down $3.00, and Soyoil down 20 points.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 52 yuan in soybeans, down 12 in Corn, down 38 in Soymeal, down 32 in Soyoil, and down 170 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 44 ringgit at 3,640 (basis May) on ideas inventories to rise due to a drop in exports and rising output.
In Argentina, net drying will continue in most of the region through Mar. 10. Crop stress is still expected to intensify as a result of this; though, erratic rain in the north Tuesday through Thursday will help temporarily slow the drying process some in that part of the region, especially locally. The midday European Model today was wetter in northern Argentina from this week’s rain compared to the GFS model. Last evening’s GFS model was wetter in week 2 of the outlook in Argentina compared to the midday GFS model.
Notable rain in southern Brazil Tuesday through next Monday will be beneficial in preventing moisture stress; however, it will also lead to some fieldwork delays.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 7,000 SRW Wheat; net sold 22,000 contracts of Corn; sold 10,000 Soybeans; sold 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 5,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 17,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 336,000 Corn; net long 155,000 Soybeans; net long 65,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 114,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 875 contracts; HRW Wheat down 250; Corn up 2,160; Soybeans up 3,085 contracts; Soymeal down 3,160 lots, and; Soyoil down 1,600.
Deliveries were 7 Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil; 5 Rice; ZERO Corn; 77 HRW Wheat; 121 Oats; ZERO Soybeans; ZERO SRW Wheat, and; 115 HRS Wheat.
There were changes in registrations—(HRW Wheat up 250}—Registrations total 49 contracts for SRW Wheat; 121 Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 169; Soyoil 1,248 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 978; HRW Wheat 1,291, and; HRS 1,273.
Tender Activity—Japan seeks 82,937 of optional-origin wheat—Algeria seeks 50,000t optional-origin 50,000t wheat—Pakistan seeks 300,000t optional-origin wheat—Taiwan bought 65,000 Argentine corn—Iran seeks 30,000t optional-origin soyoil, 30,000t sunoil, 30,000t palm oil—
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service in a weekly crop report on Monday rated 37% of the Kansas winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, down from 40% a week earlier.
- Kansas is the biggest U.S. winter wheat producer. The USDA reported that topsoil moisture was short to very short in 42% of the state, steady with the previous week.
- For Texas, the No. 2 winter wheat state by planted area, the USDA rated 28% of the crop as good to excellent, down from 30% the previous week.
- The Texas corn crop was 3% planted, behind the state’s five-year average of 7%.
- For Oklahoma, the USDA rated 46% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, down from 48% a week earlier.
Wheat exports are running down 4% versus down 2% a week ago with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase on the year. Corn up 81% (up 80% last week); USDA up 46%. Soybeans up 76% (up 77% last week) with the USDA up 34% on the year.
USDA SAYS 5.9 MILLION TONS (197 MILLION BUSHELS) OF U.S. SOYBEANS CRUSHED IN JANUARY
Trade estimate was 195.6 mil bu versus 193 mil a month ago and 189 mil last year
USDA SAYS SOYOIL STOCKS WERE 2.306 BIL LBS
Trade estimate was 2.315 bil versus 2.111 bil last month and 2.356 bil a year ago
USDA SAYS SOYMEAL STOCKS WERE 512,000T VERSUS 308,000T LAST MONTH AND 302,000T A YEAR AGO
USDA SAYS 415.8 MILLION BUSHELS OF CORN USED FOR FUEL ALCOHOL IN JANUARY VERSUS 432 MIL LAST MONTH AND DOWN FROM 469.5 MILLION A YEAR AGO
USDA SAYS 1.753 MILLION TONS OF DDGS PRODUCED IN JANUARY VERSUS 1.787 MT A MONTH AGO AND DOWN FROM 1.950 MILLION A YEAR AGO
Crop insurance policies that guarantee prices for the 2021 growing season are the highest in seven years for corn and the highest in eight years for soybeans, bolstering expectations for record combined acreage of both crops, analysts said. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) sets the guarantees, which act as the floor price below which farmers with insurance receive payments, at $4.58 per bushel for corn and $11.87 a bushel for soybeans across most of the U.S. crop belt. The prices reflect the average settlement for Chicago Board of Trade December corn futures and November soybean futures during the month of February. The guarantee price for corn is up about 18% from $3.88 in 2020, while the soybean price surged 29% from $9.17 last year. The price ratio between February soybean prices and corn prices, which the insurance guarantees are based on, stood at 2.59, the highest since 1989.
The Biden administration said Monday it will use “all available tools” to respond to alleged unfair trading practices by Beijing as it conducts a comprehensive review of its trade policy with China. Releasing its first trade agenda, the administration said it is committed to using tariffs and other tools to combat alleged unfair trade practices by China, including unfair subsidies to favored industries and use of forced labor that targets Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities. The Biden administration recognizes that China’s coercive and unfair trade practices harm American workers, threaten our technological edge, weaken our supply-chain resiliency and undermine our national interests. Addressing the China challenge will require a comprehensive strategy and more systematic approach.
Brazilian farmers had harvested 25% of the area planted with soybeans as of Feb. 25, a jump of 10 percentage points from a week earlier but still behind the 40% harvested on the same date a year ago, according to agricultural consultancy AgRural. But the 25% figure was still the lowest for the date since the 2010-2011 growing season. AgRural last week raised its forecast for soybean production for the current crop year to a record 133 million metric tons, from its previous forecast of 131.7 million tons.
Russian wheat export prices rose for the second consecutive week last week due to higher prices in Chicago and Paris, analysts said. Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports for supply in March was at $287 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $4 from the previous week, agriculture consultancy IKAR said. Sovecon, another Moscow consultancy, said wheat and barley prices rose by $4 to $284 and $251 per tonne.
Ukraine has used 78.3% of its 17.5 million tonnes wheat exports quota for the 2020/21 season, the economy ministry data showed. Ukrainian wheat exports totalled 13.7 million tonnes as of Mar 1, down almost 2.86 million tonne from the same date a season ago, the data showed. The volume included 700,000 tonnes of wheat exported in February. The ministry has said it expects that wheat exports will reach 950,000 tonnes in March.
Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 17.56 million tonnes by Feb. 28, data published by the European Commission showed. That was down from 21.48 million tonnes cleared by the same week last season.
European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 9.58 million tonnes by Feb. 28, data published by the European Commission showed. That compared with 9.38 million tonnes cleared by the same week last season.
Euronext wheat futures rose on Monday, fuelled by short-covering involving front-month futures set to expire next week, which offset pressure from weaker Chicago prices. May milling wheat was up 1.25 euros, or 0.5%, at 230.75 euros ($278.08) a tonne. Front-month March futures, which expire next week, were up 2.2% at 250.50 euros a tonne, after earlier rising to 252.75 euros, a highest front-month price since May 2013.
Australian wheat production will fall 25% next season as farmers reduce acreage and yields fall after rains caused by La Nina ease, Australia’s chief commodity forecaster said. Australian wheat output is on course to hit a record 33.34 million tonnes this year after La Nina soaked the east coast. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) said acreage and yields would fall as dry weather returns across much of the country. As a result, wheat production during the 2021/22 season is expected to total 25 million tonnes, a drop of 25%, ABARES said.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.