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Global Ag News For Mar 19


Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 3 cents, HRW up 1; HRS Wheat up 4, Corn is up 2 cents; Soybeans up 6; Soymeal up $2.00, and Soyoil up 15 points.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 5 cents; HRW down 15; HRS down 3; Corn is up 4 cents; Soybeans down 15 cents; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil down 230 points. Crushing margins are down 10 cents at $0.60 (July); Oil share down 1% at 39%.

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 20 yuan in soybeans, up 4 in Corn, down 16 in Soymeal, down 164 in Soyoil, and down 96 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were down 72 ringgit at 3,727 (basis June) at midsession on higher supply outlook.

In Argentina, last evening’s GFS model run showed a notable reduction in rainfall across the southern half of the nation March 26 – 30.

In Brazil, much of the nation is still expected to trend drier into next week with the exception of the far south. This will still benefit soybean harvesting and Safrinha corn planting.

One of the most significant precipitation changes in last evening’s GFS model run was the increase in the eastern half of the US Northern Plains March 26 – 28. Some rain and snow will be possible. The Northern Plains continues to be in need of a more widespread meaningful precipitation event due to ongoing drought conditions.

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 35,000 Corn; net sold 14,000 Soybeans; sold 4,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 9,000 lots of Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 345,000 Corn; net long 136,000 Soybeans; net long 50,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 94,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 1,900 contracts; HRW Wheat up 3,400; Corn down 18,300; Soybeans up 110 contracts; Soymeal down 2,200 lots, and; Soyoil down 2,300.

There were changes in registrations (Soyoil down 30)—Registrations total 40 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 60; Soyoil 1,218 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 1,013; HRW Wheat 1,291, and; HRS 710. 

Tender Activity—Tunisia bought 42,000t optional-origin durum wheat, 117,000t soft wheat—S. Korea bought 38,000t U.S. wheat—


For the week ended March 11th:

U.S All Wheat sales are up 2%, shipments down 2% with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase

By class, HRW wheat sales down 6%, shipments down 3%, with USDA down 7%

SRW down 24%, shipments down 32% (USDA down 18%)

HRS up 3%, shipments up 1% (USDA up 6%)

Corn up 109%, shipments up 85% (USDA) up 46%

Sorghum up 162%, shipments up 198% (USDA) up 45%

Soybeans up 74%, shipments up 76% (USDA up 34%)

Soymeal up 3%, shipments up 11% (USDA up 1%)

Soyoil down 20%, shipments down 6% (USDA down 8%)

Wire story reported that after a several-week hiatus, huge U.S. corn sales to China, which has recently become the largest buyer of the American grain, are once again being verified. But the news has failed to boost Chicago corn futures as the bookings are likely unsurprising to the market.

The United States generated fewer renewable fuel blending credits in February than in January, the Environmental Protection Agency said. About 902 million ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in February, down from 1.1 billion in January. About 306 million biodiesel (D4) blending credits were generated last month, up from 300 million the month prior.

Selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in Ottawa:

In marketing year (MY) 2021/22, Canada’s total production of oilseeds (canola, soybean, and sunflower seeds) is expected to increase 6% over the previous year, primarily on more area planted to canola and recovery of canola yields. Nearly halfway through MY 2020/21, canola seed exports to China are strong, despite China continuing to block Canada’s two largest exporters while maintaining a restrictive dockage requirement.

Ending stocks of canola for MY 2020/21 are projected at 700 thousand metric tons (MT), down 2.4 million MT from the previous year, on lower production and increased exports.

Selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in Mexico City:

High international commodity prices and government programs incentivizing small growers to produce basic grains are boosting Mexico’s total grain production, particularly of rice and wheat.

Feed grain demand is expected to continue growing in 2021 for use in the livestock and poultry sectors, although demand for grain for human consumption is forecast to grow more slowly as the Mexican economy recovers from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mexico’s corn production forecast for MY 2021/22 (October to September) is 28.0 MMT (million metric tons), with an estimated 7.3 million hectares of harvested area, assuming normal weather conditions (i.e., adequate moisture levels) … Post’s total corn production estimates for MY 2020/21 were revised downward from the USDA/Official estimate to 27.0 MMT, due to more complete data from SADER (Mexico’s Secretariat of Agriculture and Rural Development) as of Jan. 31, 2021.”

For MY 2021/22, total corn imports are forecast to increase approximately 1.8% over MY 2020/21 to 16.8 MMT, to match the relatively bullish demand for feed consumption.

USDA attache sees China 2021/22 soybean imports at 100 million tonnes

Argentina’s main farm region will receive little rain for the rest of this month, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday, after significant rainfall in recent days slowed the loss of crops caused by months of unusually hot, dry weather. Last week the exchange cut its 2020/21 corn crop forecast to 45 million tonnes, while the soy harvest estimate was reduced to 44 million tonnes. Both crops had previously been estimated at 46 million tonnes.

Workers at the Argentine grains port hub of Rosario will start a 24-hour strike on Friday morning to protest layoffs at one of the companies in the sector, an official with the local CGT labor umbrella group said.

Leading food producers’ associations in Ukraine have told the government they will keep domestic prices stable for several popular food items to help stave off inflation already hitting neighbouring Russia, unions said. Russia has imposed export taxes on its agricultural products since December in a bid to stabilise rising domestic food prices. Ukrainian food prices added 7.7% in the first two months of this year compared to the same period in 2020. Bread, eggs, sunflower oil, fruits and milk have seen the biggest rises.

Ukraine’s grain exports have fallen by nearly 23% to 33.9 million tonnes so far this season, which runs from July 2020 to June 2021, economy ministry data showed. Traders sold 13.98 million tonnes of wheat, 15.33 million tonnes of corn and 4.05 million tonnes of barley. Exporting almost 14 million tonnes of wheat, traders have used 80% of the total export quota of 17.5 million tonnes imposed for the whole 2020/21 July-June season.

The condition of French soft wheat declined slightly in the week to March 15, with 87% of crops rated good or excellent, farm office FranceAgriMer said. The rating was down from 88% a week earlier but well above the 63% a year ago.

Euronext wheat edged lower on Thursday to hold near a one-month low, curbed by mixed export prospects for the rest of this season and favorable crop conditions for the next harvest. Front-month May milling wheat on Euronext was down 1.25 euros, or 0.6%, at 220.25 euros ($262.52) a tonne. It earlier fell to 220.00 euros, equaling Tuesday’s one-month low. But chart support and a fall in the euro helped underpin prices at that level, traders said.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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