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Global Ag News For Mar 18


Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 4 cents, HRW down 5; HRS Wheat down 2, Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal down $2.00, and Soyoil down 60 points.

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 115 yuan in soybeans, down 23 in Corn, down 15 in Soymeal, down 130 in Soyoil, and down 16 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were down 122 ringgit at 3,815 (basis June) at midsession on concerns over rising output, tapering demand.

In Argentina, occasional periods of meaningful shower and thunderstorm activity through the end of March will help to further reduce crop stress and improve overall crop conditions in the nation, especially in east-central and northeastern areas where the greatest rain is likely.

In Brazil, last evening’s GFS model run continued to show conditions trending drier through this weekend with the exception of the far south. Much of the nation will become drier-biased which will be beneficial for soybean harvesting, Safrinha corn planting, and late season crop development.

A storm system will also promote another round of significant rain across the central and southern Corn Belt into Thursday with a small area of notable snow in eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Last evening’s GFS model run was wetter in the second week of the outlook compared to the midday GFS model. This evening’s run was particularly aggressive with a weather disturbance from Nebraska through the far northern Corn Belt Mar. 28 – 29. Last evenings run then showed a meaningful rain and snow event in the Northern Plains Mar. 30 – Apr. 1.

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 2,000 Corn; net sold 5,000 Soybeans; sold 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 4,000 lots of Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 16,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 380,000 Corn; net long 150,000 Soybeans; net long 54,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 103,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 225 contracts; HRW Wheat down 625; Corn down 4,600; Soybeans down 2,400 contracts; Soymeal down 585 lots, and; Soyoil up 6,100.

There were changes in registrations (Corn down 11)—Registrations total 40 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 60; Soyoil 1,248 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 1,013; HRW Wheat 1,291, and; HRS 710.

Tender Activity—Japan bought 135,600t U.S./Canadian/Australian wheat—S. Korea bought 50,000t U.S. wheat—Turkey bought 115,000t optional-origin corn—

For the week ended Mch 12, ethanol production was 971,000 barrels per day (estimates seen anywhere between 939,000 barrels a day-954,000 barrels a day), up 3.5% versus a week ago, down 6.2% versus a year ago.

U.S. Ethanol Production Uptick Exceeds Forecasts

—U.S. ethanol production rose for the week ending March 12, exceeding analyst forecasts and hitting a year-high

–Daily production rose, the highest production since mid-December. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones had forecast production to rise as much as 16,000 barrels from last week’s report.

—Ending stocks fell 730,000 barrels to 21.3 million barrels for the week. This slide also exceeded analyst forecasts, and put inventories at their lowest since late November.

Spot basis bids for hard red winter (HRW) wheat held steady in the southern U.S. on Wednesday and farmer offerings remained thin as producers waited to get more information on yield prospects for their crop.

U.S. spring wheat production potential dwindling amid area expansion of competing crops – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Lower spring wheat planted area in the Northern Plains and mounting drought concerns over the Southwest U.S. place 2021/22 total U.S. wheat production 3.2% below last season at 48.1 [43.1–53.2] million tons.

Both durum wheat and other spring wheat planted area estimates are reduced to 1.3 million acres (-338 thousand acres) and 10.9 million acres (-1.3 million acres), respectively.

Production for total spring wheat – based on trend yield, which is initially set at 46.1 bushels per acre – is forecasted at 14.8 [12.9–16.8] million tons, 16.7% below last season, resulting in decreased overall wheat production.

China’s agriculture ministry has launched a campaign to lower the content of corn and soymeal in animal feed which could have repercussions for the global grain trade. The document, sent to animal feed producers and other government departments, outlines a plan for nutrition experts to draw up guidelines by the end of this month on ways in which corn and soymeal could be replaced by alternative grains.

China’s sow herd in February grew 34.1% from the same month a year earlier, the Ministry of Agriculture said. The country’s total sow herd had reached 95% of end-2017 levels by the end of February, while its hog inventory remained above 400 million heads.

As sowings continue to gain steam concerns remain for Brazil’s second corn crop – Refinitiv Commodities Research—2020/21 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 105.6 [95.0–110] MILLION Tons, unchanged from last update

Brazilian farmers had finished harvesting soybeans on 53.3% of the area planted with the oilseeds as of March 12, according to agricultural consultancy Datagro. That was up from 40.5% a week earlier, though still behind the five-year average for the date of 56.8%. Drier weather in parts of Brazil’s center-south states have helped speed up work in the fields, with scattered rains helping the development in some areas that were planted later in the season, Datagro said. The drier weather also helped farmers accelerate their corn harvesting work, with 57.1% of the area planted already finished. That was well ahead of the five-year average for the date of 45.8%,

As harvests continue to gain speed after weeks of delays, updated satellite imagery fractionally raises yields and Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean production to132.1 million tons. The outlook is 2 million tons below USA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) estimate released in March, which has sowings at 38.6 million hectares and production at 134 million tons, up one million tons from February.

Rain storms this week in Argentina’s Pampas farm belt have slowed the deterioration of many drought-hit soybean and corn fields, crop weather specialists said. Dryness has blighted Pampas since mid-2020, prompting the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange last week to cut its soy and corn harvest estimates. The rains have been very good. This has been the first storm front to make a complete sweep of the agricultural area in almost 45 days.

Warm/dry conditions continue to lower Argentina corn yield but wetter days are ahead – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Argentina soybean production down on recent dryness despite a wetter prospect next week – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Paraguay soybean yields up <1% as recent rainfall benefits later sown areas – Refinitiv Commodities Research

South America soymeal exports declined in February, but may strengthen in March – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Russian Sovecon agriculture consultancy said on Wednesday that it had raised its forecast for Russia’s 2021 wheat crop to 79.3 million tonnes from the previously expected 76.2 million tonnes.

Russia is considering raising its export tax on sunflower seeds, rapeseed, soybeans and flaxseed to 50%, with a minimum of level of 320 euros ($382) per tonne, from July 1, Interfax reported. Moscow has imposed a series of export taxes on its agriculture products since December as it attempts to stabilize rising domestic food prices. Russia’s export tax on sunflower seeds, rapeseed and soybeans is currently set at 30%, with a minimum level of 165 euros per tonne. The tax level is set until June 30. The meeting will also discuss a formula-based export tax on sunflower oil, which Russia has been considering for a couple of months.

Ukrainian wheat export prices have lost around $10 a tonne so far this week due to restrained demand from importers and an increase in the attractiveness of European grain, APK-Inforn agriculture consultancy said. Bid prices for high-quality soft milling wheat decreased to $255 to $263 a tonne CPT (carriage paid to) Black Sea port as of March 17, from $265-$272 at the weekend. Feed wheat fell to $252-$260 CPT Black Sea from $261-$268.

Euronext wheat hovered near a one-month low on Wednesday as a lull in activity in France curbed prices, while grain investors focused more on corn and soybean markets. Front-month May milling wheat settled down 0.50 euros, or 0.2%, at 221.50 euros ($263.72) a tonne. It earlier eased to 220.50 euros, but held above Tuesday’s one-month low of 220 euros.

CME Group said on Wednesday it will list Ukrainian wheat futures and options next month in partnership with pricing agency Platts, expanding its footprint in the major grain-exporting Black Sea region to a third contract.

German pig prices held firm this week as strong sales inside Europe helped markets to recover from import bans on German pork imposed by Asian buyers including China, traders and industry sources said on Wednesday. German pig prices remained at the high of 1.50 euros a kg slaughter weight hit last week, up from 1.21 euros in February, German animal farmers’ association VEZG said.

South Africa corn production still posed for a near-record season – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Brawls in shops as Lebanon’s financial meltdown hits supply of food – Reuters News

  • Lebanon has about two months’ food supply, importer estimates
  • Importers have difficulty finding dollars
  • Groceries close, unable to keep up with currency tumble
  • Bakeries could be forced to stop production

The collapse of Lebanon’s currency has forced many grocery shops to temporarily shut within the last 24 hours, raising fears that a country reliant on imports could soon face shortages of food.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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