Global Ag News for Mar 11.22

TODAY – COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS

Wheat prices overnight are up 17 in SRW, up 26 3/4 in HRW, up 33 in HRS; Corn is up 5 3/4; Soybeans down 7 1/4; Soymeal down $0.34; Soyoil down 1.27.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 105 in SRW, down 122 in HRW, down 59 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/4; Soybeans up 18 1/2; Soymeal up $1.99; Soyoil up 0.61. For the month to date wheat prices are up 170 in SRW, up 139 1/2 in HRW, up 94 in HRS; Corn is up 70 3/4; Soybeans up 42 1/4; Soymeal up $34.00; Soyoil up 0.89.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 39% in SRW, up 31% in HRW, up 13% in HRS; Corn is up 28%; Soybeans up 28%; Soymeal up 23%; Soyoil up 44%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans down 1 yuan; Soymeal up 53; Soyoil down 46; Palm oil up 164; Corn down 3 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 254 ringgit (-3.65%) at 6707.

There were changes in registrations (66 Soybeans, -13 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 2,185 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 17 Corn; 132 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 154 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 10 were: SRW Wheat down 6,417 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,763, Corn up 14,307, Soybeans up 3,582, Soymeal up 2,178, Soyoil up 927.

Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures well below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry to isolated showers Monday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers mostly south through Friday. Mostly dry south and isolated to scattered showers north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Temperatures well below normal Thursday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, well below normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, above normal Monday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers to mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday, north Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Monday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Monday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures below normal Thursday-Sunday, near normal Monday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures below normal Thursday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

The player sheet for 3/10 had funds: net sellers of 20,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 20,000 corn, sellers of 11,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC purchased about 600,000 tonnes to 700,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat in a tender, with French supplies expected to make up a large share
• WHEAT, SOYOIL SALE: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) is believed to have purchased around 240,000 tonnes of milling wheat expected to be sourced from Europe and 60,000 tonnes of soyoil expected to be sourced from South America in tenders which closed on Wednesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued another international tender to buy about 125,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 100,000 tonnes of animal feed barley as prices hover around 14-year highs
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 163,276 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that will close on Friday. The wheat was bought in one consignment comprising various wheat types for shipment from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast between April 23 and May 7.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Friday
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

PENDING TENDERS

• FEED GRAIN TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, 60,000 tonnes of feed corn and 60,000 tonnes of soymeal
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it would seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by June 30 and to arrive in Japan by Aug. 25. It said it would seek the grain via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on March 16.

Argentina Rains Spur Soybeans, Forecast Kept at 42m Tons: Bourse

Rains over the past week are benefiting late-planted soy, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says in a weekly report.

• NOTE: 35% of soybeans were late-planted
• Early soy plants are too developed for rains to help yields
• Harvest forecast kept at 42m metric tons
• Rains are also helping late corn plants
  • NOTE: 53% of corn planting was late
  • With parched early corn plants yielding very poorly as harvesting gets underway, the exchange may cut its production estimate, which it maintained this week at 51m tons

Brazil Sees Soy Crop at Four-Year Low After New Cut on Drought

Soybean production in 2021-22 season seen at 122.8m tons, down from 125.5m tons in previous report and 11% compared with the past season, crop agency Conab says Thursday in report.

• That’s the lowest crop since 2018-19, when the nation reaped 119.7m tons
• Conab’s estimate trails 125.6m tons seen by analysts in a Bloomberg survey; it’s also below the latest USDA projection at 127m tons
• Forecast was cut mainly due to additional losses in the south
  • February rains failed to recover crops in Rio Grande do Sul after three months of drought and excessive heat: Conab
• Exports est. kept at 80.2m tons, down 6.85% y/y on lower supplies
• Crushing estimate slashed to 42.9m tons from 48.3m tons
• Total corn crop estimate unchanged at 112.3m tons, up 29% y/y
• Exports seen at 35m tons this year, rising 67% from 2021

Russia Bans Grain Exports to Eurasian Economic Union: Tass

Russia introduces a temporary ban on grain exports to the Eurasian Economic Union countries of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan until August 31, Tass reports, citing the economy ministry

• Sugar exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union also banned, Tass reports
• Grain restrictions would impact crops including wheat, barley and corn
• Deliveries will still be possible under export licenses issued by Russia

India in Talks to Buy Palm Oil, Sell Rice and Wheat to Malaysia

• Discussion comes as world grapples with surging food prices
• India is top consumer of edible oils and is reliant on imports

India, the world’s biggest importer of vegetable oils, is in talks with Malaysia about a long-term deal to buy palm oil and sell commodities like wheat and rice, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The discussion comes as countries around the world are grappling with surging food costs and supply shortages. India is heavily reliant on imports of edible oils and have been hit hard as prices repeatedly jump to fresh highs.

The country is looking to secure palm oil from Malaysia, the world’s second-biggest producer, by signing a memorandum of understanding, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the information is private. The talks are preliminary and might not result in a deal, they said.

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Reserves May Exceed 5M Tons on DMO Policy

Palm oil reserves at the world’s biggest exporter of edible oils may exceed 5m tons as govt tightens its control over shipments, says Sahat Sinaga, executive director of Indonesian Vegetable Oil Industry Association, in a virtual webinar Friday.

• Due to export congestion in last two months, stockpiles have reached 5.9m tons, above Indonesia’s total storage tank capacity of about 4.8m tons
  • The situation would make it difficult for companies in buying fresh fruit bunches from farmers in April
• NOTE: Indonesia to Increase DMO Requirement for Palm Oil to 30%: Lutfi
• Association asks govt to speed up permit issuance because only 54 out of a total of 115 exporters have obtained permits so far
• With a higher allocation of domestic market obligation for palm oil, exporters must seek higher margin to cover losses in selling the commodity at prices set by govt

Fertilizer Rally Will Bring Structural Market Changes: Rabobank

The dependence on Russian and Belorussian fertilizers will bring a structural change to the global markets, while seasonality can pressure specific markets, said Samuel Taylor, farm inputs analyst for Rabobank.

• “Three pillars that we used to know are about to change: Russia, Belarus and Ukraine as producers and exporters of key fertilizers, the European exposure to natural gas from Russia to produce nitrogen fertilizers and the Brazilian exposure to those sources,” said Taylor
• The market is dealing with the loss of potash from Belarus, which “accounts for 20% of the global exports,” and more recently from the war in Ukraine, which closed the trade flows from the Black Sea, a key exporting market for nitrogen, urea and ammonia: Taylor
  • “We are seeing companies not willing to handle some cargoes from the region,” said Taylor, noting that logistical issues will remain for some time
  • The loss of fertilizer trade out of those two key export markets comes as Brazil is short of tons to plant the soybean crop next September: Taylor
• U.S. crops should not change too much because a lot of planting decisions were already made

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Stockpiles Rise 13% M/m in January: Gapki

Stockpiles rose to 4.68m tons in January from 4.13m tons in previous month, Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki, says in a statement on Friday.

• Jan. palm oil production fell 4.23m tons from 4.36m tons in Dec. due to seasonal factors
  • Crude palm oil output at 3.86m tons vs. 3.98m
• Jan. exports at 2.18m tons vs. 2.46m tons in Dec. on lower output and rising prices
• Jan. domestic consumption at 1.51m tons vs. 1.67m tons in Dec.
  • Palm oil for biodiesel use at 732,000 tons in Jan., food industry at 591,000 tons, oleochemicals at 183,000 tons
  • Palm oil consumption for biofuels has exceeded that for food industry since Nov.

French Soft-Wheat Ratings Fall in Week to March 7: AgriMer

The amount of France’s soft-wheat crop rated in good or very good condition eased to 92% as of March 7, slightly lower than the prior week, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• Spring barley was 76% planted, versus 36% the prior week
• Compares with 84% at this time last year
• NOTE: Rains in southwest France and Spain will boost moisture for crops next week, Maxar said in a note
• Dryness to continue in northeast France, other parts of central and eastern Europe

China’s Sinograin sells 59,452 T of soybean oil from reserves

China sold 59,452 tonnes of soybean oil from its reserves on Thursday, grains stockpiler Sinograin said.

In a notice on its website, the company said it sold 84% of the 71,126 tonnes of soybean oil it had offered for auction.

The stockpiler also sold 10,172 tonnes of rapeseed oil, or 71% of the total on offer on Thursday, the company said in another notice.

The sales came after Sinograin sold 126,891 tonnes of soybean oil last Monday, it added on the website.

China will sell 295,596 tonnes of imported soybeans from its reserves on March 14.

Brazil to Propose Fertilizer Be Excluded From Russian Sanctions

Fertilizer should be exempted from sanctions imposed on Russia in order to support global food production and control food inflation, Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina said Thursday.

• The minister will present the matter for discussion at a meeting of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on March 16
• Unilateral sanctions on Russian fertilizer exports represent a threat to food security as they raise production costs and food prices as a consequence, Cristina said in an emailed statement
• The proposal has the support of Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay — nations that form a regional council on agriculture and were at a meeting with Cristina on Thursday
• She also met representatives from Arab nations seeking to boost fertilizer supplies to Brazil, the ministry said separately
• Arab nations account for 26% of Brazil’s fertilizer imports
• Brazil’s government has also been working to improve logistics for fertilizer imports in the short term, she said

Bunge says new export business from Russia suspended, oilseed crushing continues

Global grain trader Bunge Ltd BG.N said Thursday that it has “suspended any new export business from Russia” after Moscow’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine, but its oilseed crush plant in Russia is still operating and serving the domestic market.

The company is complying with all legal sanctions, a Bunge spokesperson said in an emailed statement.

Bunge has scaled back its Russian grain trading activities in recent years, including the sale of its Rostov grain export terminal, and has $121 million in total assets in the country, according to an SEC filing.

U.S. Grain Movement by Rail Fell 8.8% Week Ended March 2: USDA

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Rose 19% Last Week: USDA