TODAY – COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
Wheat prices overnight are up 4 1/2 in SRW, up 7 in HRW, up 6 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans up 9 1/2; Soymeal up $0.23; Soyoil up 0.53.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 30 in SRW, down 26 1/4 in HRW, down 13 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 15 1/4; Soybeans up 84; Soymeal up $2.83; Soyoil up 1.01. For the month to date wheat prices are down 5 in SRW, down 5 1/4 in HRW, up 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/4; Soybeans up 63 1/4; Soymeal up $20.50; Soyoil up 1.46.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 104 ringgit (+1.89%) at 5617.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,900 SRW Wheat contracts; 17 Oats; 50 Corn; 316 Soybeans; 137 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 92 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 3 were: SRW Wheat down 509 contracts, HRW Wheat up 316, Corn down 7,261, Soybeans up 4,194, Soymeal up 3,074, Soyoil down 4,904.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday, north Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday
The player sheet for Feb. 3 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,000 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.
TENDERS
- CORN SALE CANCELLATION: Private exporters reported the cancellation of sales totaling 380,000 tonnes of corn to China for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries bought a total of 53,957 tonnes of food-quality wheat from Canada and Australia in regular tenders.
- CORN TENDER: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 tonnes of corn to be sourced from optional origins
- WHEAT, SOYMEAL TENDER: An importer group in the Philippines is tendering to purchase animal feed wheat and soymeal with total tonnage sought unclear. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Feb. 11.
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Feb. 8
PENDING TENDERS
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 46,344 tonnes of rice to be mainly sourced from China with some from Thailand
- SOYMEAL, BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to buy up to 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley and 60,000 tonnes of soymeal. The deadline for submission of price offers is Feb. 2.
- CORN TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase about 325,000 tonnes of animal feed corn. The deadline for submission of price offers is Feb. 8.
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat. The deadline for submission of price offers is Feb. 14.
La Nina Scuttles 30 Million Tons of Soy in South America: StoneX
At least 30 million tons of soybeans have been lost in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay so far in the 2021-22 season due to excessive dryness and heat caused by the La Nina phenomenon, analysts from StoneX local offices said Thursday in a webinar.
AMIS Cuts World Soy Stockpile Est. to ‘Well-Below Average’ Level
World soybean stockpiles in the 2021-22 season are now estimated at 48.7m tons, down from a December estimate of 53.7m tons, FAO-AMIS said in a report posted Thursday.
- That will be a “well-below average” level and down from 50.6m tons the prior year
- Production estimate cut to 368.4m tons, from 383.3m tons, as unfavorable weather hurts crops in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay
Dryness, Heatwave Seen for Argentina Crops in Next Week: Bourse
No more than 10mm (0.4 inch) is expected to fall over most of the key Argentinian Pampas growing region, known as “zona nucleo,” in the period of Feb. 3-9, according to weather maps published by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
Much of the “zona nucleo” will also see maximum temperatures of 35-40 degrees Celsius (95-104 Fahrenheit), with some areas climbing above 40 degrees C
Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates Feb. 3: Exchange (Table)
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.
- 2021-22 Soybean production est. 42m tons vs preliminary of 44m tons
- Planting is complete
- Corn planting 99% complete
Russia, China Agreed on Broadening Wheat, Barley Supplies: IFX
Russia and China adopted documents which would allow Russia to increase sales of wheat and barley to China, Interfax reports, citing documents on the Kremlin website. Interfax reports, citing documents on the Kremlin website.
NOTE: China currently imports grain from only seven Russian regions, including Siberia and Vladivostok
EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rise 6.3% Y/y
Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 reached 16.6m tons as of Jan. 30, versus 15.7m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission says in a report
- NOTE: Figures for the prior season include trade for the U.K. until Dec. 31, 2020, when the country departed the EU customs union
- Top soft-wheat destinations are Algeria (2.58m tons), Egypt (1.64m tons) and China (1.62m tons)
- EU barley exports at 5.07m tons, versus 4.58m tons a year earlier
- EU corn imports at 9.44m tons, against 10m tons a year earlier
Fertilizer Rally to Prompt Shift Into More Soy, Corteva Says
U.S. farmers probably will devote more of their land to soybeans rather than corn this year in response to high fertilizer prices, according to Corteva Inc.
Nutrient prices have surged to records around the world following a natural gas crunch that curbed European production, as well as concerns about export curbs and trade sanctions.
That’s raising agricultural input costs and threatening to aggravate global food inflation. Under such conditions, it could make financial sense for farmers to curb cultivation of crops that demand a lot of fertilizer such as corn.
“Given the current relative economics of commodity prices, our assumption reflects some shift from corn into soybeans,” Chief Executive Officer Chuck Magro said during a conference call on Thursday. “As fertilizer prices remain high and some growers may be inclined to rotate into beans.”
The company expects planted area in the U.S. to be 90 million acres for both corn and soybeans, Magro said.
U.S. Grain Movement by Rail Up 0.4% Week Ended Jan. 26: USDA
USDA Announces Details of New Insurance Option for Conservation-Minded Corn Farmers – US Official News
Corn farmers who “split-apply” nitrogen now have another option for insurance coverage. The USDA’s Risk Management Agency (RMA) today announced the details of its Post Application Coverage Endorsement (PACE) in certain states for non-irrigated corn, providing coverage for producers who use this practice that saves producers money and is considered better for natural resources.
PACE provides payments for the projected yield lost when producers are unable to apply the post nitrogen application during the V3-V10 corn growth stages due to field conditions created by weather. PACE is offered in select counties in 11 states, including Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. It is available as supplemental coverage for Yield Protection (YP), Revenue Protection (RP), and Revenue Protection with Harvest Price Exclusion (RP-HPE) policies. The first sales closing date to purchase insurance is March 15, 2022.
To “split-apply” nitrogen, growers make multiple fertilizer applications during the growing season rather than providing all the crop’s nitrogen requirements with a single treatment before or during planting. This practice can lead to lower input costs and helps prevent runoff and leaching of nutrients into waterways and groundwater.
This new crop insurance option builds upon RMA’s efforts to encourage use of conservation practices, including cover crops. For example, RMA recently provided $59.5 million in premium support for producers who planted cover crops on 12.2 million acres through the new Pandemic Cover Crop Program . Additionally, RMA recently updated policy to allow producers with crop insurance to hay, graze or chop cover crops at any time and still receive 100% of the prevented planting payment. This policy change supports use of cover crops, which can help producers build resilience to drought.
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