Global Ag News For Feb 26
TODAY—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS–
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 9 cents, HRW down 11; HRS Wheat down 9, Corn is down 6 cents; Soybeans down 13; Soymeal down $3.50, and Soyoil down 20 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 11 cents; HRW up 3; HRS up 3; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans up 25 cents; Soymeal down $3.00, and; Soyoil up 220 points. Crushing margins were up 2 cents at $0.66 (July); Oil share up 1% at 36%.
For the month, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 3 cents; HRW up 1; HRS up 3; Corn is down 4 cents; Soybeans up 35 cents; Soymeal down $8.00, and; Soyoil up 500 points. Crushing margins are $0.66 (July); Oil share at 36%.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 73 yuan in soybeans, down 18 in Corn, down 117 in Soymeal, down 22 in Soyoil, and down 12 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 42 ringgit at 3,742 (basis May) on money positioning.
Last evening’s GFS model run continued to show beneficial rainfall from northwest Cordoba through Formosa and Salta in Argentina in the next seven days. The midday European Model was wetter for this area compared to the evening GFS model.
In Brazil, Mato Grosso will continue to be notably wet in the next two weeks leading to more fieldwork delays. This will lead to some fieldwork delays farther south than where they have recently been.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 5,000 SRW Wheat; net sold 11,000 contracts of Corn; sold 15,000 Soybeans; sold 4,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 2,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 35,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 382,000 Corn; net long 181,000 Soybeans; net long 67,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 131,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 8,500 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,700; Corn down 49,200; Soybeans down 12,000 contracts; Soymeal up 1,700 lots, and; Soyoil down 7,800.
Deliveries were 7 Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil; 515 Rice; ZERO Corn; 89 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; ZERO Soybeans; ZERO SRW Wheat, and; 652 HRS Wheat.
There were changes in registrations—(Soyoil down 25, Rice up 234)—Registrations total 49 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 169; Soyoil 1,248 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 966; HRW Wheat 91, and; HRS 1,023.
U.S All Wheat sales are up 4%, shipments down 2% with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase
By class, HRW wheat sales down 6%, shipments down 1%, with USDA down 2%
SRW down 23%, shipments down 32% (USDA down 18%)
HRS up 7%, shipments down 1% (USDA up 6%)
Corn up 128%, shipments up 79% (USDA) up 46%
Soybeans up 78%, shipments up 79% (USDA up 34%)
Soymeal up 1%, shipments up 14% (USDA up 1%)
Soyoil down 14%, shipments down 12% (USDA down 3%)
Deliveries against Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March grain and soy futures should be minimal on Friday, the first notice day. Traders expected no deliveries against CBOT March corn futures and zero to 100 March soybean deliveries. For soymeal, traders estimated March deliveries at zero to 150 contracts, and estimates of March soyoil deliveries ranged from zero to 250 contracts. For CBOT March wheat, traders expected zero to 200 deliveries, and zero to 50 deliveries against K.C. March hard red winter wheat futures.
Nearby Chicago corn and soybean futures continue to trade at abnormally large premiums to the new-crop contracts, but those deferred prices are on a much different trend than what’s been seen in other past years with strong old-new crop inverses. CBOT soybean futures hit contract highs on Thursday, both in the most actively traded May contract and in the new-crop November one. However, the recent uptrend in new-crop beans has been stronger as the oilseed battles for U.S. acres against competitors like corn, cotton, sorghum and wheat.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture seeks to expand coronavirus pandemic support for rural America, and will prioritize expanding U.S. export markets beyond top customer China, newly confirmed Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said. Continuing coronavirus relief, growing U.S. trade opportunities and fighting climate change were among the agencies top priorities, Vilsack said.
The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for global wheat production in the 2020/21 season, partly reflecting upward revisions for crops in Australia, Kazakhstan and Russia. In its monthly update, the inter-governmental body increased its global wheat crop forecast by 5 million tonnes to 773 million tonnes.
The IGC raised its forecast for Australia’s wheat crop to 33.3 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 31.2 million and more than double the prior season’s 15.2 million.
The IGC raised its outlook on Kazakhstan’s crop to 14.3 million tonnes, a three-year high, from 12.4 million. It put Russia’s crop at 85.3 million, up from 84.5 million seen previously.
The IGC said there was no change to its preliminary outlook for the 2021/22 season with wheat production still seen at a record 790 million tonnes. World corn (maize) production in 2020/21 was seen at 1.134 billion tonnes versus 1.133 billion previously. The IGC nudged up its rice production outlook to 504 million tonnes from 503 million and its soybean outlook to 360 million tonnes from 359 million.
Canadian farmers reaped record profits last year and are on track to do the same this year, the federal agriculture ministry said as prices for its top crops soared.
Prices of canola hit all-time highs this month, rallying with oilseed rival soybeans, on brisk Chinese buying to produce feed for that country’s rebuilding hog herd. Farm exports in general were stronger last year, the ministry said in a statement. The record profits come despite disruptions to beef and pork production, as COVID-19 infections forced plants to suspend processing, leading to a backlog of livestock and lower prices.
Demand for Canadian barley has surged, with key buyer China in a trade dispute with usual supplier Australia.
Spring wheat, another principal Canadian crop, are trading near more than three-year highs. ($1 = 1.2521 Canadian dollars)
Forecasts of a dry, hot week ahead in Argentina could cut the yields of late-planted corn and soybeans, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday, although it kept its harvest forecast for both crops unchanged at 46 million tonnes.
The Russian Agriculture Ministry has proposed minimal and maximum prices for grain for the period between July 1, 2021 and June 30, 2022 at which purchasing and commodity interventions will take place, according to the relevant draft ministry decree published on the regulation.gov.ru website.
Ukraine’s grain exports have fallen almost 20% to 31.7 million tonnes so far this season, which runs from July 2020 to June 2021, economy ministry data showed. Traders sold 13.6 million tonnes of wheat, 13.6 million tonnes of corn and 3.96 million tonnes of barley, the data showed.
Ukrainian sunflower oil export prices are continuing to rally, supported by a global upward trend and rumours of a possible export duty for Russian sunoil, analyst APK-Inform said.
Kazakhstan’s grain harvest in clean weight has been estimated at 20.063 million tonnes for 2020, the country’s Agriculture Ministry said. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan harvested 20.063 million tonnes of grain, including 14,256 million tonnes of wheat in 2020. Grain output rose 15% year-on-year in 2020, with wheat production increasing 24.5%,
Spain’s Ebro Foods reported on Thursday a 36% jump in annual profit, with its rice and pasta products particularly popular as coronavirus restrictions forced people to eat more at home. ($1 = 0.8175 euros).
Britain is set to introduce E10 gasoline, a motor fuel blended with 10% renewable fuels, by September this year, a move that could cut annual CO2 emissions by 750,000 tonnes, the government announced on Thursday. Current gasoline blends in Britain contain no more than 5% ethanol (E5), but the introduction of the E10 grade could cut transport emissions equivalent to removing 350,000 cars from the roads, the government said.
Euronext wheat and rapeseed prices ended mixed on Thursday, after the latest multi-year highs for front-month futures, as weak U.S. export sales and a lull in international tenders curbed a recent rally. March milling wheat on Paris-based Euronext settled up 0.50 euro, or 0.2%, at 245.75 euros a tonne, after earlier rising to 246.75 euros, a new 7-1/2 year high for a front-month price. May ended 0.5% lower at 231.50 euros a tonne, after facing chart resistance around Wednesday’s one-month high of 233.75 euros.
An estimated 87% of French soft wheat crops were in good or excellent condition by Feb. 22, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday. That was up from 86% a week earlier and well above a 64% score in the same week last year, FranceAgriMer said in a cereal crop report.
South African maize farmers are expected to harvest 4% more of the staple crop in the 2020/2021 season than in the previous season, boosted by favourable weather conditions, the government’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) said.
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