Global Ag News for Feb 2.22

TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/2 in SRW, up 2 1/2 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 9; Soymeal up $0.09; Soyoil up 0.49.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 21 in SRW, down 19 3/4 in HRW, down 6 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans up 64 1/4; Soymeal up $2.36; Soyoil up 1.14. For the month to date wheat prices are up 9 1/4 in SRW, up 7 1/2 in HRW, up 11 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 10 1/2; Soybeans up 47; Soymeal up $18.00; Soyoil up 1.50.

China and Malaysia markets are closed for holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,900 SRW Wheat contracts; 17 Oats; 50 Corn; 316 Soybeans; 137 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 92 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 1 were: SRW Wheat up 557 contracts, HRW Wheat up 710, Corn up 12,409, Soybeans up 23,826, Soymeal up 8,474, Soyoil up 11,317.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

The player sheet for Feb. 1 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 12,000 corn, buyers of 18,000 soybeans, buyers of 9,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: Private exporters reported the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said.
• CORN SALE: Private exporters reported the sale of 110,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to Mexico for delivery in the 2012/22 marketing year.
• CORN TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase about 325,000 tonnes of animal feed corn. The deadline for submission of price offers is Feb. 8.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 46,344 tonnes of rice to be mainly sourced from China with some from Thailand
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Feb. 1.
• SOYMEAL, BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to buy up to 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley and 60,000 tonnes of soymeal. The deadline for submission of price offers is Feb. 2.
• BARLEY TENDER UPDATE: Jordan’s state grains buyer reissued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley. The deadline for submission of price offers is Feb. 2.

U.S. Soybean Crushings at 198M Bushels in December: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

• Crushing 2.6% higher than same period last year
• Crude oil production 4.1% higher than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks up 16.8% y/y

Brazil Soymeal Exports Seen Reaching 1.29 Million Tns In February – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 9.9 MILLION TNS IN FEBRUARY – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 447,404 TNS IN FEBRUARY – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.29 MILLION TNS IN FEBRUARY – ANEC

Paraguay 2022 Soy Output Seen Tumbling to About 4m Tons: Chamber

Paraguay’s soy farmers probably won’t harvest much more than 4m metric tons this year compared with approx. 9.4m tons the previous season as a regional drought slashes yields, Hugo Pastore, executive director of grain and oilseed export chamber Capeco, said in a telephone interview.

• 2021-22 season could be one of the worst since the 1980s by yield due to long stretches of +40C (104F) weather in January
• ”This situation will cause a major impact on the economy. Agriculture is important in Paraguay. A good harvest means a good year for the economy,” Pastore says
• Lower output means less of the oilseed will be available to local crushers and key foreign buyers such as Argentina, Brazil
  • NOTE: Paraguay’s overall soy production hit a decade low of 4.04m tons in the 2011-12 season, according to data compiled by Capeco
• Almost 70% of the first soy harvest is finished with production seen at approx. 3.5m tons
• Farmers are sewing the second soy crop with seed shortages limiting the planting to about 500k hectares
  • That harvest in May could yield around 500k tons if there is enough rain, helping producers meet their contractual obligations
  • Some farmers might have to renegotiate contracts given magnitude of production shortfall
• Farmers could plant 850K-900k hectares with corn for harvest in mid-2022

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rise 7.7% Y/y in Season Through Jan. 30

Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 reached 17.5m tons as of Jan. 30, versus 16.2m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission says in a report.

• NOTE: Figures for the prior season include trade for the U.K. until Dec. 31, 2020, when the country departed the EU customs union
• Top soft-wheat destinations are Algeria (2.58m tons), Egypt (1.64m tons) and China (1.62m tons)
• EU barley exports at 5.07m tons, versus 4.58m tons a year earlier
• EU corn imports at 9.44m tons, against 10m tons a year earlier

Morocco Grain Plantings Fall 11% Y/y Due to Drought: USDA FAS

The late arrival of rains in Morocco has delayed wheat and barley plantings, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service says in a report.

• Total area sown with soft-wheat, durum-wheat and barley estimated at 4m hectares (10m acres) as of Jan. 18, 11% below the 10-year average
• NOTE: Winter-grain sowing in Morocco runs from mid-October through mid-January
• Rainfall in March and April is critical for crop development and will determine the harvest

Argentina exported $2.4 bln of grains in January – CIARA-CEC

Feb 1 (Reuters) – Argentine exports of grain, oilseeds and their derivatives totaled some $2.4 billion in January, the country’s CIARA-CEC chamber of oilseed crushers and export companies said on Tuesday, slightly down versus a month earlier.

In December, the country registered $2.68 billion in grains exports, with a total $32.8 billion in 2021. (Full Story)

The CIARA-CEC chamber said high global prices boosted export values, but the total was capped by lower sales of value-added processed soy and transportation issues due to the low level of the Parana river, an important grains shipment route

The chamber said the oilseed grains complex made up over 40% of the country’s total exports.

Thailand Cuts Biodiesel Blending Ratio to 5% as Palm Oil Soars

Thailand’s energy committee agrees to cut proportion of biodiesel blends in high speed diesel fuel to 5% from 7% from Feb. 5 to March 31 to ease state burden in subsidizing retail diesel prices.

• The temporary move is necessary to help the management of retail oil prices amid rising prices of both oil and biodiesel, the Energy Policy Administration Committee says in statement
• NOTE: In November, Thailand cut blending ratio to 7% from 10% and suspended production of 10% and 20% blended diesel for four months

Explosive Crop Fertilizer Loses Popularity in U.S. on High Risks

The nitrogen fertilizer causing a stir over imminent danger of explosion in North Carolina has been fading from the U.S. market exactly because of this kind of risk.

Ammonium nitrate was the first solid nitrogen fertilizer produced on a large scale, but “its popularity has declined in recent years,” according to crop nutrient company Mosaic Co. Today, the input is only about 3% of total U.S. nitrogen farm consumption, according to Bloomberg’s Green Markets.

Ammonium nitrate has been behind deadly explosions in recent years, including a Texas plant that had about 200 tons of the chemical explode in April 2013, killing 15 people and damaging more than 150 structures across a 35-block area. The blast, and the subsequent lawsuit filed against major nitrogen producer CF Industries Holdings Inc., caused unease in the industry, Green Markets analyst Alexis Maxwell said. Since then, consumption has shrank about 25%, she said.

“The U.S. ammonium nitrate market consolidated after the West Texas explosion among an increasingly smaller number of agricultural retailers as buyers were unwilling to accept the increased risk and insurance cost,” Maxwell said by email.

ETHANOL: U.S. Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Jan. 28 are based on eight analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.026m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 24.708m bbl vs 24.476m a week ago
• Would be the highest since May 2020
• The EIA in Washington is scheduled to release the report at 10:30am Wednesday

U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol at 485.8M Bu in December

The following table is a summary of U.S. corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

• Corn for ethanol was 12.5% higher than in December 2020
• DDGS production rose to 2.073m tons

Brazil January Agriculture, Mining Exports by Volume: MDIC

Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.

• Corn exports up 20% y/y
• Beef exports rose 31% y/y
• Iron ore exports down 13% y/y