Global Ag News for Feb 14.22

TODAY – EXPORT INSPECTIONS

Wheat prices overnight are up 6 1/2 in SRW, up 8 1/4 in HRW, up 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 7 1/4; Soymeal down $0.44; Soyoil up 0.31.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 34 1/2 in SRW, up 39 1/4 in HRW, up 45 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 13 1/2; Soybeans down 6 1/2; Soymeal down $0.23; Soyoil up 0.56.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 44 1/4 in SRW, up 51 in HRW, up 60 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 26; Soybeans up 83 3/4; Soymeal up $32.60; Soyoil up 1.16. Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 26% in SRW, up 35% in HRW, up 57% in HRS; Corn is up 21%; Soybeans up 15%; Soymeal up 6%; Soyoil up 43%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans down 39 yuan; Soymeal down 47; Soyoil up 60; Palm oil up 162; Corn up 1 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 99 ringgit (+1.78%) at 5672.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,900 SRW Wheat contracts; 17 Oats; 50 Corn; 146 Soybeans; 137 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 92 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 11 were: SRW Wheat up 3,170 contracts, HRW Wheat up 5,540, Corn up 17,835, Soybeans down 2,367, Soymeal up 3,510, Soyoil up 2,735.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Isolated showers Friday-Sunday, north Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Friday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Friday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

The player sheet for Feb. 11 had funds: net buyers of 13,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 4,500 corn, buyers of 5,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Friday reported private sales of 108,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for shipment in the 2022/23 marketing year.
• CORN SALE: The USDA reported private sales of 128,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to Japan for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.
• SOYOIL SALE: The USDA reported private sales of 30,000 tonnes of U.S. soybean oil to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.
• FAILED BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley and 60,000 tonnes of soymeal which closed this week

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT, SOYMEAL TENDER: An importer group in the Philippines is tendering to purchase animal feed wheat and soymeal with total tonnage sought unclear. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Feb. 11.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat. The deadline for submission of price offers is Feb. 14.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: A Syrian state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase and import 200,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by May 31 and arrive in Japan by July 28, via a simultaneous buy and sell auction that will be held on Feb. 16.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

2022 Super Bowl Party Food Costs Jump 20%, Gro Indices Show (From Gro-Intelligence)

Americans gathering at Super Bowl parties this Sunday will feast on such traditional fare as chips and guacamole. Also on the menu this year: a big helping of food price inflation. Americans consume more food on the day of the Big Game than on any day of the year, with the exception of Thanksgiving. This year, that will come at a greater cost.

No Super Bowl party is complete for most people without chicken wings — Americans eat over 1.4 billion of them on Big Game day — but their cost since the last Super Bowl has gone up 25.9% to a multi-year high. COVID production constraints kept chicken wing inventories low and prices high for nearly two years. Additional supply has built slowly, and inventories only recently returned to normal levels.

Rising party food costs for Super Bowl LVI mirrors a worldwide trend of higher food inflation resulting from unprecedented supply and demand shocks, tight food supplies, and extreme weather events. US consumer food prices overall are currently up 30% year over year, according to Gro’s US Food Price Index, and Gro expects higher food prices will remain a concern well into 2022. For a daily reading of food inflationary trends, follow the Gro US Food Price Index, which provides an inflation estimate up to six weeks ahead of when official US government data becomes available.

Russia May Buy 1.2m Tons of Grains for State Fund This Year: OZK

Russia may buy 1.2m tons of grain for its state grains fund, Ksenia Bolomatova, deputy general director at state-backed OZK, says at a conference in Moscow.  OZK, which is also known as United Grain Co., is working on this with the government, she said.

Russia’s Floating Wheat Tax Causes Unpredictability: Step

Changing Russia’s wheat tax to be set monthly rather weekly would make sales more predictable while Russian wheat could be presented more effectively in international tenders, Andrey Neduzhko, CEO of major agricultural holder Step, says at a conference in Moscow.

• Weekly changes make the tax unpredictable, Neduzhko said
• Said he was not against market regulations in general

NOPA January U.S. soybean crush seen at a record 186.677 million bushels -survey

U.S. soybean processors likely crushed a record volume of soybeans for a second straight month in January, encouraged by good soy product demand and strong margins, according to analysts polled ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Tuesday.

NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed 186.677 million bushels of soybeans last month, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts.

If realized, the crush would top the record 186.438 million bushels of soybeans NOPA members processed in December and would be up 1.1% from the 184.654 million bushels they processed in January 2021.

Estimates for the January 2022 crush ranged from 183.675 million to 188.500 million bushels, with a median of 187.000 million bushels.

The monthly NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CST (1700 GMT) on Tuesday. NOPA releases crush data on the 15th of each month, or the next business day.

Soyoil supplies at the end of January were estimated to have swelled to 2.062 billion pounds, according to the average of estimates gathered from seven analysts.

If realized, it would be up 1.5% from 2.031 billion pounds at the end of December and 14.6% above the end of January a year earlier, when oil stocks stood at 1.799 billion pounds. It would also represent the sixth stocks increase in seven months and the largest soyoil stocks held by NOPA members since the end of April 2020.

China’s Inner Mongolia to expand soybean planting in 2022 -Xinhua

China’s Inner Mongolia region, the country’s second-largest soybean growing area, will expand planting of the oilseed by 287,000 hectares in 2022, state media reported on Monday.

The northern region, located in the country’s grain basket, said it would expand soybean acreage through crop rotation programmes and increase subsidy differences between soybean and corn to encourage farmers to grow more of the oilseed, Xinhua news agency reported.

Planting acreage of soybeans in Inner Mongolia in 2021 was about 1.15 million hectares, 13.7% of the country’s total planting acreage of 8.4 million hectares.

The local government will also guide farmers to develop corn-soybean inter-cropping to expand acreage of the oilseed, said Wu Xiangliang, head of the planting management division under the region’s agriculture bureau, according to Xinhua.

China to Boost Farm Support Measures to Ensure Summer Harvest

Premier Li Keqiang said China will increase support for agriculture in spring, in an effort to ensure the nation’s “stable and healthy” economic development, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

China will ensure adequate supplies of fertilizers and other goods used in farming, and stabilize their prices, Li said in written remarks to a national agriculture meeting held Sunday, according to Xinhua. China seeks full-year grain output of above 650m tons to ensure foood security, Li said.

At the meeting held in the eastern province of Shandong, Vice Premier Hu Chunhua said that China must meet agricultural production goals, stabilize sown areas of grain and expand production of soybean and oil plants, Xinhua said.

Hu urged to press ahead with mechanization in agriculture and accelerate research and development in related machinery, according to Xinhua.

Palm Oil Imports by India Fall 2.3% M/m in January, Group Says

Palm oil purchases by the world’s biggest buyer decreased to 553,084 tons in January, from 565,943 tons a month earlier, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• The nation bought 780,741 tons in January 2021
• Soybean oil imports 391,158 tons last month vs 392,471 tons in December
  • Sunflower oil purchases 307,684 tons vs 258,449 tons
  • Total vegetable oil imports, including non-edible oil, at 1.27m tons in January vs 1.23m tons a month earlier
• Edible oil stockpiles at ports and in the pipeline were 1.862m tons on Feb. 1, compared with 1.72m tons at the start of January

Brazil 2021/22 Soybean Harvest 25.6% Done as of Feb. 11: Safras

Brazilian producers reaped 25.6% of the 2021/22 soybean crop by Feb. 11, consulting firm Safras & Mercados said in an emailed report.

Harvest is ahead of the pace seen a year ago, when 17.1% of the 2020/21 crop had been reaped, and is also advanced compared with a 5-year average of 16.2%

Indonesia’s January Palm Oil Exports Fell 7.2% M/m: Intertek

Indonesia shipped 1.72m tons of palm oil overseas in January, a 7.2% decrease from the previous month, according to surveyor Intertek Testing Services in an emailed statement on Monday.

• Jan. shipments by grade:
  • 68,978 of crude palm oil
  • 597,910 of RBD palm olein
  • 476,911 of RBD palm oil
• Jan. versus Dec. sales by destination:
  • European Union at 411,301 tons vs 351,109 tons
  • India and subcontinent at 477,751 tons vs 339,064 tons
  • China at 102,597 tons vs 224,044 tons

Russian Wheat Exports Decline 24% Y/y So Far This Season: Agency

Russian wheat shipments for the 2021-22 season amounted to 24.3m tons as of Feb. 10, down 24% from a year earlier, the Federal Center of Quality and Safety Assurance for Grain and Grain Products said on its website, citing inspections before exports.

• That means wheat exports totaled about 400k tons in the week to Feb. 10, compared with 300k tons in the previous week
• Exports of all grains are at 34.8m tons so far this season
  • Barley exports declined 34% y/y
  • Corn exports rose 24% y/y
• NOTE: Data are preliminary and include exports to the Eurasian Economic Union, which is a customs union of countries that includes Russia

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Lower supply in South America concerns agents and boosts prices

Amid bad weather conditions in South America, a failure in the Brazilian soybean crop has been confirmed, concerning agents in several links of the productive chain. On the one hand, farmers (majorly in southern Brazil) tend to face difficulties, due to the lack of soybean to sell – in some cases, farmers’ situation may be relived by insurance. On the other hand, with soybean prices on the rise, by-products tend to be valued too, boosting the production costs of livestock farming.

In this scenario, the export premiums for soybean meal are currently at the highest levels in 12 years, and the export premiums for soy oil resumed being positive.

SOYBEAN PRICES – Between February 3 and 10, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index Paranaguá rose by 3.3%, to BRL 198.33 (USD 37.95) per 60-kilo bag on Thursday, 10, the highest nominal level in the series of Cepea, which began in March 2006. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index Paraná for soybean rose by 2.3%, to BRL 193.40 (USD 37.01)/60-kilo bag on Thursday, 10 – on Feb. 7, this Index hit BRL 194.42 (USD 36.96)/bag, the highest nominal level in the series of Cepea, which began in July 1997. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices increased by 4.6% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and by 3% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

CROPS – The price rises observed for soybean and its by-products are also linked to expectations for higher international demand while supply is low. Besides lower production in other countries, such as Argentina and Paraguay, the soybean output in Brazil is expected to be lower in the 2021/22 season too. The USDA estimates the Brazilian soybean harvest at 134 million tons, and Conab, at 125.47 million tons.

Still according to Conab, 16.8% of soybean crops had been harvested by Feb. 5. Considering the states, 42.1% of crops have been harvested in Mato Grosso; in Goiás, 9%; in Mato Grosso do Sul, 7%; in Minas Gerais, 12%; in São Paulo and in Paraná, 11%; in Santa Catarina, 6%; in Tocantins, 15%; in Maranhão, 4%; and in Bahia, 5%.

According to Cepea collaborators, the first soybean crops being harvested in SP have low productivity. In Goiás and in Minas Gerais, high rains are hampering activities in crops, which may damage soybean.

CORN/CEPEA: Liquidity is low in BR, and domestic prices fluctuate slightly

Although corn production estimates have been revised down in Brazil, domestic prices have been stable in most of the regions surveyed by Cepea, reflecting the current weak demand. Sellers, who have no needs for cash flow, are focused on the harvesting. In this scenario, corn quotations have stabilized even in the regions where valuations were being registered, as in southern BR.

Between February 3 and 10, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) rose by a slight 0.3%, to BRL 97.08 per 60-kilo bag on Thursday, 10. Purchasers, who are many in this region, have reported comfortable stocks. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, the prices paid to corn farmers (over-the-counter market) remained stable in the last seven days; in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values dropped by 0.3%. On the other hand, at B3 (São Paulo Stock Exchange), international valuations and concerns about supply in South America have pushed up futures this week.

ESTIMATES – This week, Conab and the USDA have released new production estimates for South America, which were majorly influenced by the smaller summer harvest, whose productivity was hampered by the drought between November and December. However, as rains have returned to corn-producing areas, the second and third crops may be favored, offsetting losses.

In the report released on Feb. 10, Conab estimated the Brazilian 2020/21 crop of corn at 112.34 million tons, 600 thousand tons lower than that previously reported but still the highest in all times.

The summer crop of corn is forecast to reach 24.43 million tons, around 400 thousand tons down from that previously reported and 12% lower than that last season. For the second crop, estimates were revised down by 200 thousand tons from the previous report to 86.05 million tons – this volume is still 41.7% higher than that last season. For the third crop, estimates were kept stable, at 1.85 million tons, 17% higher than that in the 2020/21 season.

It is important to mention that lower production in the summer crop is a reflex of the lack of rains during crops development. On the other hand, for the two other crops, estimates for higher production are linked to the larger area and expectations for favorable weather.

Consumption in Brazil is now estimated by Conab at 76.75 million tons; and exports estimates were revised down to 35 million tons. Thus, by Jan/23, ending stocks are forecast to be at 10.09 million tons.

CROPS – Corn harvesting and sowing are in progress in all Brazilian regions, and crops are being favored by rains. In Paraná, 19% of the summer crop of corn has been harvested, and 19% of the second crop had been sown by Feb. 7, according to Seab/Deral.

In Rio Grande do Sul, it has rained again this week, favoring soil moisture, according to Emater/RS. By Feb. 10, 48% of corn crops had been harvested in RS; as for the second crop, 2% still had to be sown.

In central-western Brazil, 41.9% of corn crops had been sown in Mato Grosso by the end of last week, and 5.4% in Mato Grosso do Sul, according to Imea and Famasul.

U.S. poultry producers harden safety measures as bird flu spreads

CHICAGO, Feb 11 (Reuters) – U.S. poultry producers are tightening safety measures for their flocks as disease experts warn that wild birds are likely spreading a highly lethal form of avian flu across the country.

Indiana on Wednesday reported highly pathogenic bird flu on a commercial turkey farm, leading China, South Korea and Mexico to ban poultry imports from the state. The outbreak put the U.S. industry on edge at a time that labor shortages are fueling food inflation.

The disease is already widespread in Europe and affecting Africa, Asia and Canada, but the outbreak in Indiana, which is on a migratory bird pathway, particularly rattled U.S. producers. A devastating U.S. bird-flu outbreak in 2015 killed nearly 50 million birds, mostly turkeys and egg-laying chickens in the Midwest.

“Everyone is just sitting on edge because we know what can happen and we don’t want a repeat of that,” said Denise Heard, vice president of research for the U.S. Poultry & Egg Association, an industry group.

Poultry company Perdue Farms suspended in-person visits to farms to avoid spreading the disease, spokeswoman Diana Souder said.

Iowa’s Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig said a confirmed case in the country meant heightened risk for all.

“It’s time to move to a higher alert for our livestock producers,” Naig said.

Disease experts said a wild bird likely spread the H5N1 virus, which can be transmitted to humans, to Indiana from the East Coast, where officials have confirmed that wild ducks were infected with the strain.

U.S. Beef Production Up 3.2% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA

U.S. federally inspected beef production rises to 554m pounds for the week ending Feb. 12 from 537m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter up 3.1% from a week ago to 659m head
• Pork production up 2.9% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 2.9%
• For the year, beef production is 3.5% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 10.2% below