Global Ag News for Aug 29.24

TOP HEADLINES

 

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 8 1/4; Soymeal up $1.50; Soyoil up 0.22.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 20 1/4 in SRW, up 24 in HRW, up 17 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 6; Soybeans up 27 1/2; Soymeal up $8.00; Soyoil up 2.06.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 4 1/4 in SRW, down 6 3/4 in HRW, down 11 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 21 3/4; Soymeal down $3.30; Soyoil up 0.03.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 16.3% in SRW, down 15.2% in HRW, down 22.3% in HRS; Corn is down 20.4%; Soybeans down 24.2%; Soymeal down 20.0%; Soyoil down 9.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans up 1 yuan; Soymeal up 23; Soyoil up 96; Palm oil up 74; Corn down 5 — Malaysian Palm is up 38.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 38 ringgit (+0.96%) at 3978.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 15 Corn; 10 Soybeans; 415 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 29 were: SRW Wheat down 2,563 contracts, HRW Wheat up 732, Corn down 34,431, Soybeans down 555, Soymeal down 2,679, Soyoil down 4,563.

 

Northern Plains: Recent showers and severe storms may have caused quality problems and delays for the wheat harvest. A front continues to push through on Thursday with scattered showers, but it should be drier behind it through much of next week before another front moves through late week. Temperatures will go on a sort of roller coaster ride over the next couple of weeks.

 

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated showers continue to move through the region, but the heat is taking its toll on many areas that have been drier lately. A stronger front will come sweeping through the region Thursday and Friday with scattered showers, settling down into the south for the weekend where showers may continue. Temperatures behind the front will be much more comfortable for livestock and filling crops. Those across the north that do not see rainfall from the front could be drier through next week and that may take the top off of some yields without much rain in the forecast until maybe late next week with another front moving through. Soil moisture improvements would be preferred before winter wheat planting starts next month.

 

Midwest: Thunderstorms earlier this week developed over a wider area than maybe was forecast, which was good news for some in the north and west. Drier conditions continued in the drier sections of the south and east, though. Another front pushes through Thursday into Saturday. That will bring more sweeping cooler temperatures through the region along with needed showers. Cooler and drier conditions will follow it through most of next week.

 

Delta: Warm and dry conditions have been an unfavorable combination for filling cotton and soybeans. Some isolated showers may develop ahead of a cold front that will go through the region Friday and Saturday. The front will get stuck across the south this weekend, where it may produce showers into next week. Models are mixed on that prospect. Milder temperatures follow behind the front, though they will still be warm and stressful for filling crops where showers do not occur.

 

Canadian Prairies: A strong front and system will move across the region through Thursday with scattered showers and potential strong winds that could be damaging to mature wheat, canola, and other crops waiting to be harvested. Conditions trend drier for the weekend into early next week while temperatures will be on the rise again. Another front will move through in the middle of next week with potential showers and some elevated winds as well.

 

The player sheet for Aug. 29 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 6,000 corn, buyers of 7,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 7,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SORGHUM SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 118,000 metric tons of U.S. sorghum to China for delivery in the 2024-25 marketing year that begins Sept. 1.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• HUGE WHEAT TENDER STEMMED FROM FOOD SECURITY CONCERNS: Egypt’s biggest ever wheat tender, nearly 20 times its usual size, stemmed from food security concerns sparked by an intelligence briefing given to President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, according to three security and government sources. Egypt, one of the world’s biggest wheat importers, relies on the grain to produce subsidised bread for tens of millions of Egyptians. Successive governments have kept its price stable for decades to avoid public unrest, but in June, Sisi’s government hiked the price by 300%. Sisi’s role in the tender launched earlier this month – which sought 3.8 million metric tons of wheat, but delivered just 7% of those volumes – had not been previously reported.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 35,000 tons of feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy about 350,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 2.47M Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 1.51M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Aug. 22.

• Soybean sales rose to 2,472k tons vs 1,633k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 498k tons vs 493k in previous week
• Corn sales rose to 1,509k tons vs 1,410k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following table shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Aug. 22, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 933k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 473k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: South Korea with 93k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following table shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Aug. 22, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 13.8k tons of the 42.2k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

Soybean crop in Brazil’s Parana state to jump 20% as yields recover, Deral says 

The soybean crop in Brazil’s southern state of Parana is estimated to reach 22.33 million metric tons in the 2024/25 season, a 20% jump compared to the previous season’s 18.56 million tons, according to the state’s Department of Rural Economy (Deral).

The 2024/25 planted area is estimated to be practically stable compared to the previous harvest, at 5.8 million hectares. Planting for the new season should begin in September, depending on the arrival of the first rains.

Last season’s harvest in the state, one of the country’s largest producers, was below potential due to droughts. Deral estimates an increase in average productivity in the 2024/25 season to 3.85 tons of soybeans per hectare.

 

Some Argentina Soy Seen Suffering From La Niña in 2025: Rosario

Forecasted delays to an upcoming La Niña climate pattern could hurt Argentina’s early-planted 2024-25 soybeans, the Rosario Board of Trade said in a report.

• The moderate-strength La Niña will hit later than first expected — from November and continuing into 1Q25 — with the accompanying dryness in Argentina posing a risk to early soy that reaches yield-defining growth stages in Jan./Feb.
• Yet the delay could help the first corn crop, which is just starting to get planted

 

Argentine Corn Production Estimate Aug. 29: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• Corn production estimate maintained at 46.5m tons
• Corn harvesting advanced to 99.3% complete

 

EU 2024-25 Total Grains Production Forecast Cut to 264.5m Tons

The EU’s total grains production is seen at 264.5 million tons, down from a July estimate of 271.6 million tons, the European Commission said in a report.

• Soft-wheat harvest is seen at 116.1m tons in the 2024-25 season, cut from July’s estimate of 120.8m tons
• Durum wheat production was little changed at 6.9m tons
• Barley crop was cut to 51.3m tons from 52.7m tons forecast in July
• Corn was also slightly lowered and now expected at 61.6m tons

 

Corn Use for Ethanol Could Beat USDA Projection

With only one week remaining in the old crop corn market year, use of 2023/2024 corn for ethanol production should end around 5.47 billion-5.48 billion bushels, if ethanol production holds at last week’s levels and there are no surprises in grain crushings reports for July and August, Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage says in a note. That would be “a modest 20-30 million bushels higher than the USDA’s current projection,” he adds. Ethanol production was 1.071 million barrels a day in the week ended Aug. 23 versus 1.098 million b/d the previous week, according to the EIA. Ethanol stocks were unchanged at 23.6 million barrels.

 

U.S. Agriculture Trade Deficit Seen Wider In Fiscal Year 2025

USDA economists project the U.S. will run up an agricultural trade deficit of $42.5 billion in fiscal year 2025, which begins October 1, versus a projected $31.5 billion gap in FY24. Exports are projected at $169.5 billion, down $4 billion from 2024, while imports are seen rising by $8 billion to $212 billion. The lower projected exports are based on lower expected unit values of soybeans, corn and cotton, and lower volume of beef. The increase seen in imports is attributed to greater purchases of horticultural, sugar and tropical products. Mexico and Canada are expected to remain the top export markets with $29.2 billion and $28.9 billion, respectively, followed by China at $24 billion.

 

NZ Institute Now Sees 50% Chance of La Niña By End of Spring

NZ’s National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research comments in seasonal outlook, published Friday in Wellington.

• A La Niña Watch continues and there is a 50% chance for it to fully develop by the end of spring
  • NOTE: Last month said there was a 60% likelihood of oceanic La Niña developing during spring
• Institute using two indicators — Southern Oscillation and Relative Oceanic Nino Index — to assess probability and currently RONI reveals a more advanced state of La Niña development
• “It is possible that traditional oceanic monitoring indices fail to reach La Niña thresholds, but RONI reaches the threshold. These differences highlight that weather-related impacts from this possible La Niña will likely differ from the last event in 2022-23”

 

Russia lifts ban on rapeseed exports, imposes 30% duty, though not less than 165 euros per tonne

Russia has lifted the ban on rapeseed exports and imposed a duty of 30%, though not less than 165 euros per tonne, the government posted on social media.

“Export duties on rapeseed are established from September 1, 2024, to August 31, 2026, to replace the current temporary ban on exports. The rate will be 30%, but not less than 165 euros per tonne,” the government said.

Temporary restrictions continue to apply to exporting products from Russia outside the Eurasian Economic Union.

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending Aug. 27: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending Aug. 27, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Corn crops experiencing moderate to intense drought edged up by a percentage point to 8%
• Soybean crops rose by 4 points to 12%

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 580k tons in the week ending Aug. 24 from 706k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 31% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 14.3% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $24.62 per short ton, an increase of $3.51 from the previous week

 

 

 

 

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