Global Ag News for Aug 28.24

TOP HEADLINES

US Says Bioceres’ Genetically Modified Wheat Safe for Production

• USDA says company’s HB4 grain poses no major pest risk
• Bioceres seeks to bring first GMO wheat to world markets

The Biden administration says Bioceres Crop Solutions Corp.’s drought-tolerant grain trait doesn’t require regulation, putting the agriculture technology company a step closer to its goal of bringing the first genetically modified wheat to global markets.

The US Department of Agriculture said Argentina-based Bioceres’ so-called HB4 wheat, which also includes herbicide resistance, is unlikely to pose an increased plant pest threat and “may be safely grown and bred in the United States.”

A Bioceres spokesperson said HB4 wheat is now fully approved for production in the US, making it the fourth country to receive clearance to produce and commercialize the grain. Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina have previously already approved the company’s grain.

Bioceres Chief Executive Officer Federico Trucco said in May that US approval for its GMO wheat was long overdue.

US Wheat Associates praised the move and said it’s confident the HB4 trait has potential to benefit both farmers and consumers. Peter Laudeman, the group’s director of trade policy, noted that it will still take years for Bioceres to complete the additional steps needed to successfully commercialize wheat with the HB4 trait in the US.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/4 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 7 3/4; Soymeal down $3.20; Soyoil up 0.12.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 6 1/2 in SRW, up 10 1/4 in HRW, up 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans up 8 3/4; Soymeal up $5.00; Soyoil up 0.20.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 15 1/4 in SRW, down 19 1/2 in HRW, down 27 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9; Soybeans down 43 3/4; Soymeal down $6.70; Soyoil down 1.78.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 19.3% in SRW, down 16.4% in HRW, down 24.4% in HRS; Corn is down 22.3%; Soybeans down 25.6%; Soymeal down 18.4%; Soyoil down 13.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans up 26 yuan; Soymeal up 46; Soyoil up 40; Palm oil down 36; Corn up 3 — Malaysian Palm is down 3.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 3 ringgit (-0.08%) at 3920.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 15 Corn; 10 Soybeans; 415 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 27 were: SRW Wheat down 10,632 contracts, HRW Wheat down 931, Corn down 39,136, Soybeans down 136, Soymeal down 5,935, Soyoil down 9,855.

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers will stay in the region through Thursday before a system finally pushes chances out of the region with dry conditions returning for the Labor Day weekend. Loss of quality and delays to harvest will be possible for wheat.

 

Central/Southern Plains: Limited showers will continue to be possible until a front comes through late in the week. The front should also bring in some cooler temperatures. Models are starting to show more agreement that showers will linger across the south early next week with a front stalling out. Any additional moisture would be beneficial before wheat planting gets underway this fall.

 

Midwest: Warm temperatures will be maintained through the middle of the week. Another front will continue to work across the region through Wednesday. It may take out extreme heat in some spots, but also be the focus for at least some showers. The potential for widespread rainfall is low until another front pushes through Thursday and Friday. That will bring more sweeping cooler temperatures through the region along with the needed showers.

 

Delta: Warm and dry conditions have been an unfavorable combination for filling cotton and soybeans. The hot and dry conditions are likely to last much of the week, until a front moves through Friday through the weekend. This should bring widespread showers and could linger into next week across the south. Milder temperatures will also filter into the region, much more favorable conditions for filling crops.

 

Canadian Prairies: Drier conditions returned Monday after scattered showers went through over the weekend. Another front and system will move through late Tuesday through Thursday with scattered showers and potential strong winds that could be damaging to mature wheat, canola, and other crops waiting to be harvested. Conditions trend drier for the weekend into early next week while temperatures may be on the rise again.

 

Brazil: Extremely dry conditions exist in northern and central areas and they would enjoy some rain before the wet season rains come in about a month. Southern areas also saw very cold temperatures move into the region the past few days, creating some areas of frosts that could have been damaging to wheat. Warmer temperatures will arrive for the rest of the week, reducing the risk for frost. It should be dry for much of the week as well. Another front will come through Friday through the weekend. It may not bring much precipitation, but it could drop temperatures again. Models are mixed on how cold the front could be.

 

Argentina: Recent widespread frosts and freezes may have been damaging to wheat, or at least slowed down its development. Cooler air will stick around through midweek with another burst of cool air by the end of the week behind another front. The front is forecast to produce some rain into the weekend with showers possibly lingering into early next week. The country remains very dry and could use some rain ahead of spring corn planting, which should start up next month.

 

Europe: Temperatures continue to be very warm for most areas and will rise in western areas over the course of the week as well. Another front may move in with limited showers late this week, but it likely stays hot and dry through next week, a poor combination in most areas for filling corn. Areas near the Mediterranean may see some isolated showers.

 

Black Sea: A small system is in the Black Sea, which may bring a few spotty showers to southern areas through the middle of the week. Otherwise, it will be hot and dry for the week, likely through next week as well. Drought continues to expand and damage filling corn and sunflowers.

 

Australia: Recent scattered showers supported good growing conditions for winter wheat and canola. Several systems moving through the Southern Ocean this week will produce some showers across the south, but will not penetrate farther north where it has been drier lately. A brief dry period will return to southern areas late this weekend into early next week with the return of high pressure. Temperatures will continue to be very warm except near the coast, which will cause quicker development of winter crops.

 

The player sheet for Aug. 27 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,000 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: Exporters sold 120,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2024-2025 marketing year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) purchased an estimated 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Tuesday, with the corn expected to be sourced from South America
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased around 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) Busan section in South Korea purchased an estimated 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America in a private deal on Tuesday
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday
• CORN, BARLEY TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 35,000 tons of feed barley.

 

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy about 350,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Aug. 23 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.091m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 23.557m bbl vs 23.574m a week ago

 

Indonesia June Palm Oil Exports Rise to 3.385m Tons: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil exports rose to 3.385m tons in June from revised 1.964m tons in May, according to Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki).

• Palm oil output fell to 4.045m tons from 4.253m tons in May
• Palm oil stockpiles fall to 2.818m tons from 4.092m tons in May
• Palm oil domestic consumption fell to 1.940m tons from 1.943m tons in May
• Palm oil for biodiesel domestic consumption fell to 898k tons from 907k tons in May

 

India Boosts Sowing of Rice and Pulses on Ample Monsoon Rainfall

The area allocated to monsoon-sown rice crops has increased 4.3% from a year earlier to 39.43 million hectares (97.4 million acres) in 2024, according to the agriculture ministry.

• Farmers have planted pulses on 12.22 million hectares of farmland, a rise of 5.7% from 2023, the ministry said in a statement on Tuesday.
• Rains have been 7% above normal so far in the monsoon period that runs from June to September, according to the India Meteorological Department. Sowing normally begins in late May, while harvesting typically starts in late September.

 

Export duty on Russian wheat rises 9.7% to 908.5 rubles per tonne as of Aug 28 – Agriculture Ministry

The export duty on Russian wheat has risen 9.7% to 908.5 rubles per tonne as of August 28 from 828.4 rubles per tonne during the previous duty period, the Agriculture Ministry said.

The duty on barley has remained zero and the duty on corn has fallen to 701.4 rubles per tonne from 1,033.6 rubles per tonne.

Duty rates are based on indicative prices of $214.60 per tonne for wheat against $214.50 per tonne the previous duty period, $177.70 per tonne for barley versus $180.90 per tonne, and $198.80 per tonne for corn against $205.20 per tonne.

The duties are valid until September 3, inclusive.

Russia introduced a grain damper mechanism on June 2, 2021, which stipulates floating duties on the export of wheat, corn, and barley and the return of funds received from the duties to subsidize agricultural producers. The duties are calculated weekly from indicators based on the prices of export contracts registered on the Moscow Exchange (MOEX: MOEX). Duty rates were initially calculated in dollars, and they have been calculated in rubles since July 2022. The duty is 70% of the difference between the reference and indicative prices.

The Agriculture Ministry on June 1, 2023, hiked the reference price for calculating the export duty on wheat to 17,000 rubles per tonne from 15,000 rubles per tonne, and the reference price on barley and corn to 15,875 rubles per tonne from 13,875 rubles per tonne. These rose to 18,000 rubles for wheat and 16,875 rubles for barley and corn on June 28, 2024.

 

Euronext to Offer Three Spread Contracts for Grains

The exchange will offer its first spread contracts, pending regulatory review, with trading to begin Oct. 14, it said in a statement.

• Spread contracts have these underlying products:
  • Euronext Milling Wheat no.2 Futures vs CBOT Wheat Futures
  • Euronext Milling Wheat no.2 Futures vs CBOT KC HRW Wheat Futures
  • Euronext Milling Wheat no.2 Futures vs Euronext Corn Futures
• Contracts will have four expiries per year, in March, May, September and December
  • At launch, five expiries will be available, from Dec. 2024-Dec. 2025
• “Until now, market participants had to trade the different futures contracts separately, executing a spread strategy in two inverse trades on each outright”

 

 

 

 

 

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