Written Commentary
TODAY—SEP OPTION EXPIRATION—CATTLE ON FEED—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS
Euronext wheat edged lower on Thursday as a rally in U.S. grains petered out and an expected large harvest in Russia kept attention on ample global wheat supply; December milling wheat settled down 0.50 euro, or 0.3%, at 181.25 euros ($214.87) a ton; front-month September futures ended down 0.6%, also at 181.50 euros, as it eased further from a three-week peak of 185.00 euros touched on Monday in volatile trading ahead of the expiry of September options.
Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 3 cents, HRW up 2; HRS Wheat up 4, Corn is up 2 cents; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal up $1.00, and Soyoil unchanged.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 22 cents; HRW up 20; HRS up 19; Corn is up 2 cents; Soybeans up 9; Soymeal up $4.00, and; Soyoil up 40 points. Crushing margins are up 3 cents at $1.02; Oil share unchanged at 34%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 5 yuan in soybeans, down 7 in Corn, down 28 in Soymeal, down 82 in Soyoil, and down 102 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 54 ringgit at 2,683 (basis November) at midsession on slower August export data.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest between the models have some significant rainfall for some parts of the region while others see limited amounts; the GFS has rainfall mostly in the northern sections of the Midwest while the European model is more central; temps look to move above average next week.
The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest has models in agreement of close to average rainfall and below average temps.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net even in Corn; sold 7,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 116,000 Corn; net long 54,000 Soybeans; net short 20,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 60,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 3,100 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,900; Corn up 860; Soybeans up 5,400 contracts; Soymeal up 1,400 lots, and; Soyoil down 350.
There were changes in registrations (Soyoil down 24)—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 23; Soyoil 2,581 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice ZERO; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
Tender Activity—Brisk Chinese demand for French wheat and barley is continuing this season as a grain import drive by China and its trade clash with Australia provide a welcome export boost for France after a disappointing harvest; for wheat, around a dozen panamax vessels are thought to have been booked for shipment to China during the first half of the 2020/21 season that started in July, representing about 700,000 tonnes, traders said, with some estimating sales at least one million; so far, about 200,000 tonnes of French wheat have been shipped or are about to load; Chinese demand remains dynamic at the start of the new season
Pro Farmer tour sees sub-par corn, better soy prospects in storm-hit Iowa
Pro Farmer tour sees strong corn, soy prospects in Minnesota
For the week ended August 13th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 7% ahead of a year ago, shipments down 1% with the USDA forecasting a 1% increase on the year
For the week ended August 13th, U.S. Corn sales are running 12% behind a year ago, shipments 14% behind with the USDA forecasting a 13% decline.
For the week ended August 13th,U.S. Soybean sales are running 2% behind a year ago, shipments down 5% with the USDA forecasting a 6% decline on the year
Saskatchewan crop report: Warm temperatures have continued to rapidly develop and ripen crops, with some reports of premature ripening; four per cent of the crop has been combined, up from one per cent last week and slightly behind the five-year average (2015-2019) of five per cent for this time of year; six per cent of the crop has been swathed or is ready to straight-cut, behind the five-year average (2015-2019) of eight per cent.
China’s imports of wheat and soybeans rose in the first seven months of the year, a spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce said.
Harsh frosts over recent days joined severe dryness in punishing Argentina’s recently planted wheat crop, with yields having been pressed lowered since the adverse weather started in May, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said.
Russia can export 37 mln tonnes of wheat in the agricultural year of 2020-2021 and become the leader again, the President of the Russian Grain Union said; we will definitely reclaim the leadership; we expect total grain exports of about 47 mln tonnes in the season of 2020-2021, including 37 mln tonnes of wheat accordingly.
Kazakhstan harvests 14% of grain by Aug 20.
The condition of French maize declined further last week, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed, as crops continued to feel the effects of hot, dry summer weather; in the week to Aug. 17, 62% of grain maize (corn) was rated as good or excellent, down from 65% the previous week and now level with the score at the same point last year.
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