Written Commentary
TODAY—WEEKLY EXPORT SALES
China and the United States have agreed to hold trade talks “in the coming days” to evaluate the progress made on their Phase 1 trade deal at the six-month mark after it was reached in January, China’s commerce ministry said.
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 5 cents, HRW down 6; HRS Wheat down 2, Corn is down 4 cents; Soybeans down 8; Soymeal down $1.00, and Soyoil down 50 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 69 yuan in soybeans, up 10 in Corn, up 8 in Soymeal, down 64 in Soyoil, and down 32 in Palm Oil.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest does see a front bringing light to moderate rainfall to 65% of the region favoring the north and east; temps are seen moving to average to above as we move into the weekend, next week.
The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest has the European model calling for close to average rainfall and below average temps; the GFS has average temps and average to below average precip.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 6,000 Corn; bought 3,000 Soybeans; were net even in Soymeal, and; bought 1,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 116,000 Corn; net long 61,000 Soybeans; net short 18,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 63,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 4,400 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,300; Corn down 9,700; Soybeans up 4,600 contracts; Soymeal down 830 lots, and; Soyoil up 3,800.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 23; Soyoil 2,606 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice ZERO; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
Tender Activity—Japan bought 117,000t U.S./Canadian/Australian wheat—Jordan cancelled tender for 120,000t optional-origin wheat—
Pro Farmer crop tour sees above-average Illinois corn, soy crop prospects
Iowa corn yields below average after dry weather, wind storms -Pro Farmer tour
A clearer picture of damage to crops in the path of last week’s derecho storm emerged on Wednesday, as crop scouts on an annual tour scrambled across blown over corn stalks and wind-battered soybean fields in Illinois and Iowa; Iowa officials on Tuesday warned much of the crop in the path of the Aug. 10 storm would not be harvested; some 14 million acres, or 57% of Iowa’s area planted, were impacted.
Argentina’s 2020/21 corn planting area is seen at 6.2 million hectares, below the historic 6.3 million planted in the previous cycle, due to dry weather in key producing areas, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said; its central agricultural region has suffered from a serious lack of rainfall since June; the bad weather has already negatively affected the development of recently-planted wheat
Ukraine’s grain crop may shrink to 70 million tons in 2020 from a record 75.1 million tons harvested in 2019, due to poor weather, the economy ministry said; if the autumn weather conditions are favorable, the corn harvest is expected at 35 million tons, and the total grain harvest – at 70 million tons; Ukraine collected 35.8 million tons of corn, 28.3 million of wheat and 8.9 million tons of barley in 2019.
Since the beginning of the new 2020/2021 marketing year (MY, July-June) and as of August 19, 2020, Ukraine exported 5.1 million tons of grain and legumes, which is 1.26 million tons less (due to corn) than on this date in the past MY; 3.03 million tons of wheat, 1.56 million tons of barley and 502,000 tons of corn (1.18 million tons less) was exported to date; as of August 19 of this year, 28,400 tons of flour was also exported
Euronext wheat traded narrowly mixed on Wednesday, consolidating after a rally in the past week as traders assessed a wheat purchase by Algeria; December milling wheat was up 0.25 euro, or 0.1%, at 181.00 euros ($215.44) a ton; on Monday, the contract had climbed to 182.50 euros, its highest since July 31; front-month September futures were down 0.8% at 181.50 euros, easing further from a three-week peak of 185.00 euros touched on Monday ahead of the expiry of September options.
Japan’s usage of corn in animal feed rose to 49.3% in June, compared with 49.2% in the same month of 2019, preliminary data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries showed
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for August 1 – 20 fell 18.2 percent to 946,338 tons from 1,157,020 tons shipped during July 1 -20, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said.
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