Global Ag News 10.9

TODAY—USDA MONTHLY S/D REPORTS—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 6 cents, HRW up 7; HRS Wheat up 5, Corn is up 4 cent; Soybeans up 8;  Soymeal up $3.50, and Soyoil up 30 points.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 29 cents; HRW up 27; HRS up 16; Corn is up 11 cents; Soybeans up 38;

Soymeal up $12.00, and; Soyoil up 170 points. Crushing margins are up 5 cents at $1.06; Oil share is unchanged at 31%.

Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 109 yuan in soybeans, up 74 in Corn, up 175 in Soymeal, up 234 in Soyoil, and up 258 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 33 ringgit at 2,921 (basis December) at midsession on export hopes, output concerns.

We estimate Managed Money net long 53,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 200,000 Corn; net long 282,000 Soybeans; net long 101,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 96,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 5,900 contracts; HRW Wheat down 995; Corn down 10,700; Soybeans down 7,200 contracts; Soymeal down 2,900 lots, and; Soyoil down 1,100.

Deliveries were ZERO Soymeal and ZERO Soyoil.

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 361; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 1,907 lots; Soymeal 250; Rice ZER0; HRW Wheat 135, and; HRS 1,195.

Tender Activity—Jordan seeks 120,000t optional-origin wheat—Pakistan seeks 300,000t optional-origin wheat—Turkey bought 125,000t optional-origin wheat—Thailand bought 55,000t Australian wheat—

Wire story reports Chicago corn and soybean futures have responded positively the last three times that the U.S. Department of Agriculture published a major report, something that the very plentiful bulls would enjoy should this happen again on Friday; soybean futures hit 2-1/2-year highs on Thursday and corn a nearly one-year high before ending lower, though investors have built enormous long positions ahead of Friday’s supply and demand report from the USDA, where U.S. corn and soybean production will be in focus; the market is fairly set on lower U.S. corn and soybean yields on Friday.

For the week ended October 1st, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 8% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 6% with the USDA forecasting a 1% increase on the year

For the week ended October 1st, U.S. Corn sales are running 159% ahead of a year ago, shipments 77% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 32% increase

For the week ended October 1st, U.S. Soybean sales are running 151% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 73% with the USDA forecasting a 27% increase on the year

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue promoted biofuels and USDA’s investment in projects such as blender pumps during a series of events in Iowa and Minnesota on Thursday; the USDA says it has invested $22M out of an allotted $100M into the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program–an initiative designed to increase ethanol-storage capacity at gas stations across 14 states; the building of infrastructure at these gas stations is estimated to add to US ethanol demand by nearly 150M gallons yearly, the USDA says–with the remaining allotment for the program expected to raise that figure exponentially

China’s 2020-21 feed and residual use for all coarse grains and feed-quality wheat is estimated to increase 3.2% compared with the previous marketing year, due to a projected recovery of swine production and strong expansion in the poultry and ruminant sectors, says the U.S. Department of Agriculture; the agency says that while China may rely more on corn imports in the coming marketing year, some of these gains will be mitigated by an increased use of sorghum, barley, and old rice and wheat stocks in feed rations to take the place of record high-priced corn.

China’s agriculture ministry said on Friday it had made no changes in its October outlook to forecasts for its major crops in the 2020/21 crop year; despite concerns over the impact of recent typhoons, the ministry said weather conditions during September were better than the average in previous years and conducive to good corn output; the new corn harvest and arrival of imported corn and other substitute grains would help ease tight supplies of the cereal used predominantly in animal feed, it added, but recovering demand from livestock and higher harvest costs after some damage to the crop would keep corn prices at the current level.

Brazilian crop agency Conab forecast record soybean and corn harvests for the 2020-2021 growing season as farmers boost productivity; Brazilian farmers will produce 133.7 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2020-2021 season, for which planting recently began, the agency said Thursday in its first forecast for the season; Brazil produced 124.8 million tons of soybeans in 2019-2020; productivity is forecast to increase by 4.4% from 2019-2020.

Brazilian soybean farmers, who are starting to plant the new crop this month amid dry weather, have sold 50% of the estimated 2020/2021 production through Oct. 2, totaling 65.65 million tons, according to agribusiness consultancy Datagro; this is a record for this time in the season and represents almost twice the historical average for sales of soybeans, which is 26.7% of the estimated harvest for early October

Russia has harvested 126.6 million tons of grain before drying and cleaning from 92% of the area with an average yield of 2.86 tons per hectare, data from the agriculture ministry’s analytical center published.

Farmers have also sown winter grains for next year’s crop on 75% of the planned area, or on 14.3 million hectares, down 200,000 hectares from Oct. 7, 2019, the analytical centre added.

Russia will have a record rapeseed harvest this year, the Agriculture Minister said; I’d like to mention that a record rapeseed harvest is expected in 2020 – no less than 2.5 million tons; this is 500,000 tons more than the year before; the rapeseed yield would be 19% higher this year than last year; altogether, regions estimate the grain harvest this year at up to 21.5 million tons; according to data of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), in 2019, the oilseed crop harvest was 22.8 million tons.

Ukraine’s grain exports have fallen 11.8% to 13.02 million tons so far in the season that runs from July 2020 to June 2021 because of much lower volumes of corn, the economy ministry said.

French farmers had sown 6% of the expected area for next year’s soft wheat harvest as of Oct. 5, farm office FranceAgriMer said; that compared with 3% a week earlier and also 3% in the corresponding week last year.

Euronext wheat retreated on Thursday, falling below the 200 euro threshold as an international rally fueled by dry weather in several exporting countries lost momentum; December milling wheat was down 1.50 euros, or 8%, at 199.00 euros ($233.86) a ton; it earlier rose to 202.25 euros, matching Wednesday’s life-of-contract high that was also a near five-month peak for a spot price, before tracking a sharp pullback for Chicago wheat in U.S. trading.

Palm oil prices are likely to jump in the first half of 2021, three leading industry analysts said in a webinar on Thursday, as La Nina weather pattern is set to hit edible oil supplies amid lower soybean crushing in Argentina and rising sunflower oil prices.