Written Commentary
Grain Outlook
Grains are higher. SX is up 3 cents and near 9.68. SMV is near 309.4. BOV is near 33.22. CZ is up 5 cents and near 3.59. WZ is up 2 cents and near 5.55. KWZ is up 2 cents and near 4.78. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. US Administration agreed to avoid a shutdown. Still no new Covid aid. BOE agreed there is a need for more easing. US jobs data today. CBOT closed on Monday for holiday.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 7 cents; HRW up 6; HRS up 8; Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans up 18; Soymeal up $5.00, and; Soyoil up 15 points. Crushing margins are down 6 cents at $0.90; Oil share is unchanged at 34%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 65 yuan in soybeans, up 13 in Corn, up 6 in Soymeal, unchanged in Soyoil, and down 38 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 31 ringgit at 2,860 (basis November) at midsession on upcoming higher stock forecast reports.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the US Midwest is still mixed between the models as far as coverage but, both do have a strong cold front moving through the region Monday through Thursday. Putting the models together, it’s forecasted for some good rains falling in eastern IA, southeastern MN, most of WI, northern IL, and northwest IN. Total rainfall in the rest of the Midwest would be light. Temps will be average to below average this weekend falling to below average next week. The 11 to 16 day outlook for the Midwest has average temps and below average precip.
Some now estimate China will import 15-20 mmt of corn in 20/21 and 20-25 mt corn in 21/22. Informa out today with 2020 corn crop estate. One group estimated US corn crop near 15,005 mil bu and 2020/21 carryout near 2,895. They also estimate feed use near 5,750 versus USDA 5,925, ethanol 5,050 vesrus USD 5,200 and export near 2,275 versus USDA 2,225. Some are closer to 2,400.
For the week ended August 27th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 9% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 1% with the USDA forecasting a 1% increase on the year, U.S. Corn sales are running 11% behind a year ago, shipments 13% behind with the USDA forecasting a 13% decline, U.S. Soybean sales are running 3% behind a year ago, shipments down 5% with the USDA forecasting a 6% decline on the year, soymeal sales up 1% on the year, shipments up 3% with a 2% increase forecast and Soyoil sales 43% ahead of a year ago, shipments 50% ahead with a 47% increase forecasted.
On Thursday Managed funds were net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 16,000 Corn; bought 4,000 Soybeans; net bought 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 3,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 20,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 63,000 Corn; net long 163,000 Soybeans; net long 15,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 72,000 Soyoil.
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