Written Commentary
Grains are mixed. SU is up 4 cents and near 8.98. CU is down 1 cent and near 3.26. WU is down 1 cent and near 5.35. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.
Rains overnight were in E IN and W OH. Rains today will be in OH river valley. US Midwest weather has temps warmer this weekend. 7 day US Midwest rainfall will be in MN and IL. Next week temps moderate. Late in the week rains are forecasted for NE, IA, MO, IL and IN. 11-16 day EU model suggest normal rains while GFS suggest above temps and below rains.
Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 300-600 mt, corn 2,000-4,000 mt and soybean 1,330-2,700 mt.
November soybeans was trading near 9.82 in Jan. Combination of Trade war with China and Covid dropped values to near 8.31.USDA acreage rally pushed SX to 9.12. We are now on hold near 8.98 due to conflict between China buying and good US crop outlook. Some now est US 2020 soybean crop near 4,200 mil bu versus USDA 4,125. Same group feels SX may not trade over 9.05 and should trend lower into the fall.
December corn was trading near 4.04 in Jan. Combination of Trade war with China and Covid dropped values to near 3.22.USDA acreage rally pushed CZ to 3,69. We are now on hold near 3.34 due to conflict between potential China buying? and good US crop outlook. Some now est US 2020 corn crop near 15,248 mil bu versus USDA 15,000. Same group feels CZ may not trade over 3.40 and should trend lower into the fall.
Chicago September wheat was trading near 5.92 in Jan. Concern about global trade dropped prices to near 5.02 in March. Concern about US/ Russia crops rallied prices to near 5.70 also in March. Concern about Covid reduced demand and dropped prices to near 4.71 in June. Higher Europe and Russia prices has helped prices rally to near 5.35. Most feel prices will struggle to trade over 5.40. KWU 4.68. Covid demand loss limits gains.
On Wednesday Managed funds were net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 15,000 Corn; bought 3,000 Soybeans; 1,000 lots of soymeal, and; sold 1,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 125,000 Corn; net long 88,000 Soybeans; net short 29,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 24,000 Soyoil.
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