Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Red victory could increase US production and lower prices. Fed meeting next. USDA November report Friday.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 10.07. Red victory is expected to increase tariffs on China and Mexico. Global vegoil markets are higher. Nearby China demand for US soybeans is supportive. But now, new crop Brazil soybean values higher on talk China is expected to shift demand from US to Brazil. China October soybean imports were near 8 mmt and new high. US Ag attache est China imports at 105 mmt vs USDA 109. Trade est US 2024 soybean crop at 4,557 mil bu vs USDA Oct est of 4,582. Trade est 2024/25 carryout at 532 vs USDA 550. Weekly US soybean sales est at 1,200-2,200 mt vs 2,273 last week.
CORN
CZ is near 4.26. Some look for nearby corn futures in a range from 3.90-4.35. Managed funds were big buyers. US election will add to uncertainty to US Ag domestic and foreign policy. Trade est US 2024 corn crop at 15,189 mil bu vs USDA Oct est of 15,203. Trade est 2024/25 carryout at 1,946 vs USDA 1,999. US ethanol margins up with corn and prices lower and ethanol prices at 2 month high. Brazil corn export pace is slow and suggest exports could be down 10 mmt vs USDA 46.5. South America weather remains favorable for crops. Weekly US corn sales est at 1,700-2,500 mt vs 2,341 last week.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.76. KWZ is near 5.74. MWZ is near 6.06. Some look for nearby Chicago wheat futures in a range from 5.50-6.20. Good rains have fallen across US HRW plains. Trade est 2024/25 carryout at 813 vs USDA 812. Normal 2025 north hemisphere wheat crops could offer long term resistance. Matif wheat was higher on Managed funds short covering and lower Euro. Aussie dollar started lower then rallied. World wheat buyers and sellers watching for changes in US export policy. Weekly US wheat sales est at 250-550 mt vs 411 last week.
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