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Dryness Fears in Brazil Supports Sugar Prices


While global risk sentiment took a positive shift at the end of last week, cocoa will continue to face global demand concerns while COVID-19 cases are on the rise and many locations are instituting fresh shutdown measures again. There has been an uptick in supply-side anxiety over the past few weeks, however, and that should provide underlying support for cocoa prices.


With near-term supply issues continuing to provide underlying support, coffee is in a good position to extend its recovery move. For the week March coffee finished with a gain of 2.75 (2.5%) and a second positive weekly result in a row. Near-term supply concerns from storm damage and flooding in Vietnam and Central America continue to underpin coffee prices.


The market remains in a short-term downtrend as traders continue to absorb the bearish news from the USDA last week. The technical action is also weak as the market appears to be breaking out to the downside of a bear flag formation, with 66.96 as the next downside target for December cotton.


Since the start of the fourth quarter, sugar prices have rebounded from four sizable pullbacks, three of those occurring during the past 3 weeks. The upside break-out this morning is impressive and leaves 15.59 as next upside target. While the market has been resilient in the face of uncertain global risk sentiment and volatile key outside markets, it has been unable to close above the 15.00 cent level. Longer-term dryness fears in Brazil continues to support.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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