Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Soybean futures are lower, corn marginally lower and wheat mixed. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is marginally lower. US inflation data, US Presidential debate and ECB interest rate decision is expected to add to Market uncertainty. Tropical storm Francine will add to US S Midwest, Delta and SE rains, some heavy. Rains could slow harvest. US plains and Midwest remains warm and dry. This could speed up harvest. South America weather is dry. Black Sea is warm with scattered rain.
SOYBEANS
SX is down 9 cents and near 10.08. SX-SF spread is wide 17-18 cents carry. USDA announced 132 mt US soybeans to China. US soybean exports start a new market year. USDA est exports at 1,850 mil bu vs 1,700 ly. USDA continued to est US crop 65 pct G/E vs 52 ly. SX under pressure due to approaching US harvest. Brazil fob premiums were higher due to dry weather. China data suggested August soybean imports at 12.1 mmt, Oct-July total is near 93.3 mmt vs 93.7 ly. Assuming Sep at 8-9 mmt, Oct-Sep is est at 101-103 mmt vs USDA 111.3.
CORN
CZ is down 1 cent and near 4.06. CZ continues to hover around 50 DMA. CZ-CH spread is wide 19 cents carry. US corn exports start a new market year. USDA est exports at 2,300 mil bu vs 2,250 ly. USDA est US crop 64 pct G/E vs 65 last week and 52 ly. Corn supported by dry US and South America weather. Brazil corn futures were higher due to dry weather. There remains concern over EU crop quality. EU domestic demand is improving. Continued drop in China corn prices and deflation economy raises concern about China Imports.
WHEAT
WZ is unch and near 5.68. KWZ is also unch and near 5.75. MWZ is up 1 cent and near 6.08. WWZ-MWH spread is wide at -20. Beginning Canada wheat stocks were est at 4.6 mmt vs USDA est of 1.8. This helped MWZ-MWH spread widen. US HRS harvest is 85 pct. WW plantings are 6 pct. US exports are 6.35 mmt or up 34 pct vs ly. USDA goal is 22.4 mmt vs 19.2 ly. Nearby Black Sea prices near $200 offers support. Deferred prices near $250-$260 offers resistance and limits deferred export buying.
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