ADMIS News
SUGAR
March Sugar is near unchanged this morning after extending yesterday’s rally slightly overnight. Recent rainfall in Brazil has improved the outlook for 2025 production slightly, but the damage from the drought/heat of the past year has been done, and it could take some time for the crops to recover, especially in the wake of the fires last month that damaged cane fields. Rainfall in Brazil diminished greatly Monday after it was widespread during the weekend. More significant rains could arrive Friday through Monday before conditions dry out again. The wetter trend is positive, but there is a lot to make up.
COCOA
December Cocoa was higher overnight, extending its rally off concerns that too much rain in west Africa is delaying or even damaging the main crop harvest. Rainfall has been light in Ivory Coast and Ghana over the past couple of days, which is needed to avoid problems with disease. World Weather Service expects frequent showers and thunderstorms to continue to occur but decrease into next week. Cocoa traders are cautious about Ivory Coast’s ability to rebound enough off last year’s disappointing crop to adequately loosen global supplies. Ghana’s outlook is still poor with 40% of its plantations affected by swollen short disease.
COFFEE
December Coffee was a bit higher overnight but inside yesterday’s range. Rains have finally started to arrive to Brazil’s coffee areas, which has induced flowering, but consistent rains are needed to get the 2025 crop off to a good start. Forecasts are mixed but seem to be moving in the right direction. Rains have diminished this week after widespread coverage over the weekend. Sporadic showers are expected in coffee areas through Thursday, and a frontal system is expected to bring more significant rain Friday through Monday before conditions dry out again. Rabobank said yesterday that the prolonged dry weather and high temperatures in Brazil this year raise concerns about the potential for 2025/26 production, thought recent rains are a “positive sign.”
COTTON
December cotton was higher overnight but inside Monday’s range down. The weekly Crop Progress report released yesterday afternoon showed 34% of the US cotton crop was rated good/excellent as of October 13, an improvement over 29% the previous week and 30% a year ago. The five-year average for this date is 41%. Texas was 23% G/E, up from 17% last week and 11% a year ago. Georgia was 33% G/E, down from 34% last week and 57% a year ago. The five-year average is 58%. Harvest progress reached 30% for the entire crop, which is slightly behind the five-year average of 33%. Texas was 34% harvested versus a five-year average of 36%. Georgia was 20% harvested, Arkansas 41%, and Mississippi 45%. The weather ahead in the US looks conducive to late season development and harvest. This may not help Georgia much, but most of the US growing areas could benefit. Most of the weather around the world looks conducive to crop development, except for Australia, which needs rain badly. The recent dollar strength adds to the poor outlook for US exports.
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