Written Commentary
Morning Grains Outlook
Grains are higher. SX is up 5 cents and near 9.30. CU is up 2 cents and near 3.42. WZ is up 4 cents and near 5.44. KWZ is up 3 cents and near 4.64. US Midwest weather maps are drier across IA and C IL over the next 10 days. US stocks are slightly lower. US Dollar is slightly lower. Crude is slightly lower. Gold is slightly lower.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 28 yuan in soybeans, down 10 in Corn, down 11 in Soymeal, up 124 in Soyoil, and up 70 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 35 ringgit at 2,680 (basis November) tracking rival oils but, concerns of weak demand capped gains.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest switched to now seeing a lesser amount of rainfall across much of the region with any rainfall coming early in the period and favoring the Ohio River valley. Temps will be above average the rest of the week and into the weekend then, fall to below average the first half of the week and remain there for the rest of the week.
The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest has a bit less than average rainfall for the region and below average temps. Temps may be flirting near 32 degrees in far northern sections of the Midwest by the end of the period (the GFS model showing colder temps then what the European model is offering).
Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 400-700 mt versus 523 last week. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 700-1,300 mt versus 723 last week. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 1,200-2,200 mt versus 2,573 last week.
Sep deliveries are estimated near 0-250 wheat, no soybeans, 2,000-3,000 soyoil, 250-500 soymeal and corn 500-1,000.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 4,700 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,300; Corn down 29,600; Soybeans up 1,500 contracts; Soymeal up 2,100 lots, and; Soyoil up 3,600.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 23; Soyoil 2,632 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice ZERO; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 1,000 Corn; bought 7,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 66,000 Corn; net long 122,000 Soybeans; net long 6,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 63,000 Soyoil.
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