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Dollar Underperforms Today


The U.S. dollar could only close slightly higher yesterday despite several bullish economic reports.

In recent weeks there has been only a limited flight-to-quality flow of funds into the greenback, which is a sign of longer-term weakness.

Japan’s finance minister said he is watching foreign exchange markets with a sense of urgency and indicated he is ready to take measures to support the Japanese yen.

The Tokyo core consumer price index, which is considered to be a leading indicator of nationwide trends, increased 2.7% in October from a year earlier, which exceeded market forecasts of a 2.5% gain.

One hundred dollar bill closeup


Stock index futures are higher.

Personal income in September increased 0.3% when up 0.4% was expected, and personal consumption expenditures advanced 0.7% when a gain of 0.5% was anticipated. The PCE price index increased 0.4% when a gain of 0.3% was estimated.

The 9:00 central time October consumer sentiment index is predicted to be 63.0.

Gains are likely to be limited by the uncertainties of the situation in the Mideast.


Futures are steady to a little higher at the front of the yield curve and are lower mid-curve and at the long end of the yield curve.

Michael Barr of the Federal Reserve will speak at 8:00.

Financial futures markets are now predicting there is a 97% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its November 1 policy meeting, and there is a 3% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, which is a reflection of increasing geopolitical risks.


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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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