Written Commentary
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar is lower, and the euro currency is higher.
The euro zone February manufacturing PMI was 48.5, as estimated, but was down from 48.8 in January.
Analysts expect the European Central Bank will raise key rates by another 50 basis points at its March 16 policy meeting and possibly by 25 basis points at its May meeting.
The S&P Global/CIPS U.K. monthly manufacturing PMI increased to 49.3 in February from 47.0 in the previous month, but is still below the 50 threshold for growth.
British house prices in February dropped by the most in over 10 years. The 1.1% decline was the biggest year-on-year drop since November 2012, and also is the first annual decrease since June 2020.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Mortgage applications were down 5.7% in the week ended February 24, marking a third consecutive decline, and pushing the mortgage index close to a 28-year low, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications to refinance a home loan fell 5.5% and those to purchase a home loan declined 5.6%.
The 8:45 central time February PMI manufacturing final report is expected to be 47.8.
The 9:00 February institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is anticipated to be 48.0, and the 9:00 January construction spending report is predicted to show a 0.2% increase.
Analysts’ commentary on stock index futures has become overwhelmingly bearish.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are steady to higher at the front of the curve and lower at the long end of the curve.
Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve will speak at 8:00.
Most likely the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its March 22 policy meeting, and there is more talk of another 25 basis point hike at the May meeting.
The severely inverted yield curve is becoming even more inverted but continues to get very little attention.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
