Cocoa Demand Concerns Remain
While the market has received supportive comments from Hershey and Barry Callebaut over the past week, global demand remains a concern for cocoa during the fourth quarter. The market remains on-track for a positive weekly result due to near-term West African supply anxiety, but cocoa may need to see a rebound in global risk sentiment to see a continued uptrend.
With near-term supply issues providing support, the short-term trend should remain up. Weather issues from upcoming crops in Central America and Vietnam remain a major source of strength for the market as they are causing delays with harvesting, and may also result in damage to coffee trees. Vietnam’s October coffee exports came in 8.4% below September’s total.
March cotton is still operating under the negative technical influence of the sweeping reversal from October 28th. The bounce and consolidation after the November 2nd low would appear to be a bear flag formation, and a close under 70.16 will leave 67.66 as next downside target.
Sugar appears to have made a third recovery move from the lows of its October/November consolidation zone during the past three weeks, and has done so with subdued global risk sentiment and without much carryover support from its key outside markets.
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