Global Ag News for Nov 16
TODAY—EXPORT INSPECTIONS—CROP PROGRESS/CONDITIONS—COMMITS REPORT—
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 5 cents, HRW down 6; HRS Wheat down 4, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal up $2.50, and Soyoil down 20 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 5 cents; HRW down 2; HRS down 2; Corn was up 6 cents; Soybeans up 47; Soymeal up $7.00, and; Soyoil up 175 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 40 yuan in soybeans, up 28 in Corn, down 35 in Soymeal, up 130 in Soyoil, and up 60 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up at 3,311 (basis February) at midsession following vegoil gains seen in China.
South America Weather Forecast: Brazil rainfall during the weekend was most concentrated on the area from Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraguay and western Parana into Minas Gerais and Goias ; Southern Brazil weather will trend drier after the first part of this week; Rainfall today and Monday will vary from 0.20 to 0.75 inch with local totals over 1.00 inch; coverage will be 70% each day; Far southern Brazil will trend drier starting Tuesday and expand northward Wednesday through Saturday. Argentina received rain during the Friday through Sunday morning period. Coverage was close to 85%, but the greatest amounts of rain occurred in Cordoba, southeastern Santiago del Estero, northwestern Santa Fe and parts of western Chaco and eastern Formosa where 1.00 to 2.00 inches resulted; follow up rain will be extremely important; Rain is expected Nov. 24-28 across much of Argentina with 0.50 to 1.50 inches resulting which may translate into further improved rainfall
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 5,000 Corn; bought 6,000 Soybeans; net even in Soymeal, and; net bought 1,000 lots of Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 40,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 314,000 Corn; net long 288,000 Soybeans; net long 94,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 113,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 2,900 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,400; Corn up 4,500; Soybeans down 6,100 contracts; Soymeal up 1,100 lots, and; Soyoil up 5,300.
Deliveries were 113 contracts for Soybeans.
There were changes in registrations (Soybeans down 90)—
Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1; Soybeans 179; Soyoil 1,770 lots; Soymeal 193; Rice 417; HRW Wheat 113, and; HRS 1,195.
Tender Activity—Syria seeks 150,000t optional-origin wheat—Turkey seeks 350,000t optional-origin corn—
For the week ended November 5th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 12% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 1% with the USDA forecasting a 1% increase on the year
For the week ended November 5th, U.S. Corn sales are running 174% ahead of a year ago, shipments 67% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 49% increase
For the week ended November 5th, U.S. Soybean sales are running 125% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 88% with the USDA forecasting a 31% increase on the year
Private analytics firm IHS Markit Agribusiness, formerly known as IEG Vantage, on Friday projected smaller increases in U.S. corn and soybean plantings for 2021 than it did a month ago, according to portions of an IHS client note seen by Reuters.
The Chinese city of Wuhan said on Friday it had detected the novel coronavirus on the packaging of a batch of Brazilian beef, as it ramped up testing of frozen foods this week as part of a nationwide campaign; the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission said in a statement on its website it had found three positive samples on the outer packaging of frozen, boneless beef from Brazil; the beef had entered the country at Qingdao port on Aug. 7 and it reached Wuhan on Aug. 17, where it remained in a cold storage facility until recently.
A “super soybean harvest” is ruled out for the 2020/2021 season in Brazil’s biggest grain state, Mato Grosso, as irregular rains cast doubt over yields and the volumes when the crop is ready next year, an analyst with agribusiness consultancy AgRural said; the Brazilian government said earlier in the week that Mato Grosso will reap almost 37 million tons of soybeans in 2021, while Brazil should harvest a record of about 135 million tons; a bumper crop is out of the question,” AgRura said about Mato Grosso, declining to elaborate.
Brazilian farmers have pre-sold an unprecedented amount of their new soybean crop amid a rally in Chicago that compelled many to trade in their beans even before laying a single seed on the ground this year; agribusiness consultancy Datagro said farmers had sold 71.76 million tons of Brazil’s most prized export commodity through Nov. 6, corresponding to 53.4% of the estimated output for the current planting cycle; a drought in parts of Brazil delayed soybean planting this season, but analysts and the government believe the country will reap around 135 million tons in the 2020/2021 season, which would be a record output; sy is normally sowed around September and October in the South American nation, and begins to be harvested around January and February.
Russia’s November exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are estimated at 5.1 million tons, up from 4.95 million tons in October, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said.
Ukraine has harvested 57.2 million tons of grain from 14.1 million hectares, or 92% of the sown area, as of Nov. 12, Ukraine’s economy ministry said; it said farmers had completed the wheat and barley harvest and collected 21.4 million tons of corn from 4.3 million hectares, or 78% of the sown area.
Kazakhstan exported 2.734 million tons of grains and flour in the first four months of the marketing season that began in July, the Central Asian nation’s agriculture ministry said on Monday.
That is 4.5% more than exports for the same period of the previous season, when exports from the former Soviet republic suffered from a poor crop.
Euronext wheat was little changed on Friday, consolidating after a volatile week in futures, while physical markets stayed firm as an Algerian tender purchase added to strong international demand; front-month December milling wheat 0.50 euro, or 0.2%, higher at 210.00 euros ($248.33) a ton; March futures settled up 0.25 euro at 209.75 euros, consolidating after a life-of-contract high at 212.75 euros on Wednesday.
India’s retail inflation may stay elevated for at least three more months after hitting a six-year high in October, as excess rain has damaged standing crops and seedlings, while edible oils that the country imports have become expensive; the high prices are a particular cause of concern for India’s hundreds of millions of poor people, who have already been squeezed by the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on an economy that contracted a record 23.9% in April-June.
India, one of the largest importers of edible oils, expects imports will continue to fall for a second consecutive year after declining by 9% in the 2019-20 oil year November-October; expectations of increase in domestic edible oil production, coupled with fears about subdued demand is likely to cut Indian imports, giving the central government some relief. In the current year, demand collapsed to about 21 million tons from the normal demand of 23 million tons, leading to fall in imports.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for November 1 – 15 fell 14.0 percent to 653,541 tons from 760,082 tons shipped during October 1 – 15, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said.
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