Written Commentary
Morning Grain Outlook
USDA dropped US soybean crop ratings to 69 pct good/ex versus 72 Last week. States with biggest drops were IA and MS. One crop watcher kept his US soybean yield to near 52.0. He also estimates that 13 pct of the soybean crop yields are below trend including IA and MS, 20 pct trend AR, ND, OH and TN and 61 pct above trend IL, IN, LA, MI, MN, MO, SD, NE and WI. There were reports that the KS dryland soybean crop has been hurt due to dryness.
USDA dropped US corn crop ratings to 64 pct good/ex versus 69 Last week. States with biggest drops were IA, MI and SD. One crop watcher dropped his US corn yield to near 178.0. He also estimates that 25 pct of the corn crop yields are below trend including IA and OH, 24 pct trend MI, ND and NE and 42 pct above trend IL, IN, MN, MO, SD and WI. The above trend state total is down from 52 last week.
USDA rated the US spring wheat crop 71 pct good/ex versus 70 last week. 49 pct of the crop was harvested.
Grains are higher. SX is up 8 cents and near 9.14. CU is up 5 cents and near 3.37. WZ is up 4 cents and near 5.32. KWZ is up 4 cents and near 4.51. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 52 yuan in soybeans, down 2 in Corn, up 33 in Soymeal, up 26 in Soyoil, and unchanged in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 48 ringgit at 2,614 (basis November) a 2 week low on weak August export data, stronger ringgit.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the US Midwest still has both models indicating fairly healthy rains to fall in all of the region. Temps will run above average in most of the region for the week ahead as well as into the weekend and then will fall to below average as we work through the first half of next week and remain there for the rest of the week. The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest continues with average to a bit less than average rainfall and below average temps for the Midwest while no cold air threats are seen.
One might call the news in the grains the perfect storm. Fact USDA dropped weekly US corn crop ratings more than expected, China and US had a surprise positive Phase 1 conversation, China was a big buyer yesterday of US Nov-Dec soybeans and that US Midwest rains from Hurricane Laura may be delayed helped rally futures overnight.
US Wheat exports running up 3% ahead of a year ago with the USDA currently forecasting a 1% increase on the year, Corn 12% behind a year ago with the USDA down 13% for the season and Soybeans are down 5% on the year with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year
On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 15,000 Corn; sold 1,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 95,000 Corn; net long 100,000 Soybeans; net long 4,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 58,000 Soyoil.
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