Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
US CPI day. Grain futures are mixed. SH is up 6 cents and near 16.00. Yes 16.00. CONAB Brazil crop update today. SMH is near 466.3. Overnight high was 469.0. BOH is near 64.37. CH is down 1 cent and near 6.45. CH tested 6.49 overnight. WH is up 4 cents and near 7.89. KWH is up 4 cents and near 8.19. MWH is up 6 cents and near 9.60.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is mixed. Copper is higher. At times copper price direction a key to Global economy especially China.
Dalian soybeans, soymeal, palmoil, soyoil and corn prices were higher. Rumors of China buying US corn helped rally corn. There is some rain in the South America dry areas in the 10-14 day maps. Nothing new concerning Russia and Ukraine tension.
March soybean futures are higher and breached the 16.00 level. Talk that USDA is too high in South America production, too low in US demand and too high for US 2021/22 carryout is helping soybean futures. Next resistance is 16.77, SMH 474 and BOH 66.77. One analyst now estimate US 2021/22 soybean carryout at 215 vs USDA 325, 2022 soybean acres 89.0 and US 2022/23 carryout at 75 with a 51.5 yield. Guess they feel soybeans futures may need to trade higher to ration demand and increase 2022 US acres. US soybean export sales are est at 1,000-1,500 mt vs 1,095 last week.
March corn futures is marginally lower. USDA failed to make any adjustment in US 2021/22 corn balance sheet. One analyst now estimate US 2021/22 carryout at 1,220 vs USDA 1,540, 2022 corn acres 91.0 and US 2022/23 carryout at 1,100 with a 180.5 yield. Some feel US needs more acres and that 180.5 yield or futures could trend higher. CH testing 2012 dry weather higher prices. US corn export sales are est at 500-900 mt vs 1,175 last week.
Wheat futures are higher. USDA tried to lower World 20/21 wheat end stocks but most feel they need to go lower. Wheat prices are a follower until more is known about Russia and Ukraine tension and US 2022 weather. Not much to say about USDA US 2021/22 balance sheet expect it is not bullish. Bull grain analyst estimate US 2021/22 wheat carryout at 600 vs USDA 648, 2022 corn acres 48.0 and US 2022/23 carryout at 585 with a 49.1 yield. KWH could test the downtrend line at 8.36. MWH resistance is near 9.67 then 9.73. US wheat export sales are est at 275-500 mt vs only 161 last week.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
